Cannonier vs Strickland, Tsarukyan vs Ismagulov, Costa vs Albazi Fight Picks – December 17, 2022

Jared Cannonier vs Sean Strickland

  • Jared Cannonier
  • Age: 38
  • UFC Record: 5-2 at 185 lbs. 8-6 overall.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Jack Hermansson, Anderson Silva, and David Branch. Beat Kelvin Gastelum.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Sean Strickland
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 12-4
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Brendan Allen and Nordine Taleb. Beat Uriah Hall, Krzysztof Jotko, and Court McGee. Split decision wins over Jack Hermansson and Tom Breese.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)

Cannonier’s championship fight with Adesanya went about as expected. The only thing that was unexpected for me was how well Adesanya’s chin held up. I knew Adesanya would land more, but that Cannonier would have a puncher’s chance. He’d land some and maybe KO Adesanya. Strickland got knocked out in his last fight by now champion Alex Pereira. No shame in that. Pereira has 75 striking, out struck Strickland as long as the fight lasted. On paper, this looks like a close fight, but I see a couple edges for Strickland. One, Cannonier is 38 years old. He got his title shot. Lost. Sometimes guys like that are never the same. Two, I think Strickland’s cardio is way better. Strickland also seems to have a little more ways to go in his development than Cannonier. Slight edges, but it should be enough for him to win here.

Chris’ Pick: Strickland by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Strickland -175


Arman Tsarukyan vs Damir Ismagulov

  • Arman Tsarukyan
  • Age: 26
  • UFC Record: 5-2
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 6-0 wrestler and a 17-4 striker. Knocked out Joel Alvarez, Christos Giagos, and a 15-5 striker. Beat Davi Ramos, Matt Frevola, and a 5-1 wrestler.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Damir Ismagulov
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 5-0
  • Key Wins: Beat Thiago Moises and Joel Alvarez. Split decision over Guram Kutateladze.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)

Ismagulov was a -180 favorite going into his fight with Kutateladze, but the fight ended up being razor close. But that’s because the market was sleeping on Kutateladze. He’s for real. Striking and grappling were about equal. Ismagulov grades stay the same for me. I still think Tsarukyan beat Mateusz Gamrot. Judges gave it to Gamrot. Tsarukyan clearly won the first half of the fight, but Gamrot started to mount a comeback as his cardio was more ready for 5 rounds than Tsarukyan’s was. But this is a 3 round fight, so I don’t see cardio being an issue for Tsarukyan. I see his striking being better and that should help him win a potentially close fight.

Chris’ Pick: Tsarukyan by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Tsarukyan -250


Alessandro Costa vs Amir Albazi

  • Alessandro Costa
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 12-2
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 10-2 striker.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-2 wrestler. Beat a 4-1 grappler. Split decision over a 12-0 grappler.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Amir Albazi
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 15-1
  • UFC Record: 3-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted Francisco Figueiredo, Malcolm Gordon, a 6-2 wrestler, and a 6-2 striker. Beat Zhalgas Zhumagulov and a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)

Costa didn’t land the UFC contract on the Contender, a split decision over Andres Luna. But Brandon Royval got hurt and in steps Costa on 3 weeks notice. Costa’s fight with Luna was razor close. Line opened with Luna as the favorite, but then it flipped with Costa closing as the favorite. Turns out both guys were equal on the grappling and really close to equal on the striking. I had Francisco Figueiredo with 55 striking going into his fight with Albazi and Figuieredo landed more 11 to 3. But I think that has more to do with either a small sample size or Figueiredo’s striking being a 60. Albazi did show his grappling is for real. At least a 65. Could be a 70. Albazi looks like an emerging contender, but Costa is a really, really good prospect who matches up decently. Albazi will probably be a big favorite but Costa is a live underdog.

Chris’ Pick: Albazi by 2nd round submission.

What I think the odds should be: Albazi -175


Alex Caceres vs Julian Erosa

  • Alex Caceres
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 14-11
  • Key Losses: Lost to Masanori Kanehara. Lost a split decision to Guan Wang.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Seung Woo Choi. Beat Chase Hooper and Kevin Croom.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Julian Erosa
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 10-6
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by Artem Lobov and Teruto Ishihara.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Nate Landwehr and Jamall Emmers. Submitted Charles Jourdain and Sean Woodson. Beat Hakeem Dawodu. Split decision over Steven Peterson.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)

Even though Caceres lost his last fight to Sodiq Yusuff, he was still able to prove his recent resurgence is for real. Striking was close to equal, it’s just Yusuff landed with more power and that won him the fight. And Erosa is coming off the biggest win of his career, upsetting a 2 to 1 favorite in Dawodu. But I’m not 100% sure Erosa won because he got better. Dawodu missed weight by 3 lbs but still fought. Maybe Dawodu’s skills weren’t on the level they normally are. It’s really hard to say, but we should get more clarity after he fights Caceres. For now, I’m going to reluctantly bump up Erosa’s tools because I do think the fight had more to do with Erosa just being a late bloomer and getting better.

Chris’ Pick: Erosa by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Erosa -200


Bobby Green vs Drew Dober

  • Bobby Green
  • Age: 36
  • UFC Record: 8-8-1
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Rashid Magomedov.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Al Iaquinta. Beat Nasrat Haqparast, Alan Patrick, Lando Vannata and Erik Koch.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Drew Dober
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 11-7
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Terrance McKinney, Alexander Hernandez, and Nasrat Haqparast. Beat Scott Holtzman.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Not much changed since these guy’s last fight. Green took on Islam Makhachev on a week’s notice and got steamrolled in a few minutes. And Dober’s tools were reaffirmed in the Rafael Alves fight. Dober has the power to KO Green, but the more likely out come is Green landing more and winning on points.

Chris’ Pick: Green by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Green -150


Cody Brundage vs Michal Oleksiejczuk

  • Cody Brundage
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 8-2
  • UFC Record: 2-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Tresean Gore. Submitted Dalcha Lungiambula and a 4-1 grappler.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Michal Oleksiejczuk
  • Age: 27
  • UFC Record: 5-3
  • Key Losses: Submitted by Ovince St. Preux.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Shamil Gamzatov, Gian Villante, Gadzhimurad Antigulov, and a 5-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Split decision over Modestas Bukauskas.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Not much to take away from Oleksiejczak’s KO over Alvey, other than he could be improved at 185 lbs. Fight lasted less than 2 minutes. This fight could be similar to Duraev vs Buckley, albeit with Oleksiejczak’s striking maybe not on the same level. But Oleksiejczak is a big middleweight. Not as likely for Duraev to grind out a win on the ground. Brundage is coming off a KO win over Gore, who may or may not be really good. Line closed with Gore as a -155 favorite. Not sure why. I’ve come to the realization that’s Gore’s striking is a 55, which is why striking was close to equal. Brundage got a couple take downs showing 60 grappling. Brundage is taking this fight on about 2 weeks notice and it’s a horrible matchup for him. Especially because Oleksiejczuk likes to use his cardio as a weapon. But also, there’s a big difference in the level of striking between the two.

Chris’ Pick: Oleksiejczuk by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Oleksiejczak -400


Cheyenne Vlismas vs Cory McKenna

  • Cheyanne Vlismas
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 7-2
  • UFC Record: 3-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Gloria de Paula. Beat Mallory Martin and a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Split decision win over a 3-0 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Cory McKenna
  • Age: 23
  • Pro Record: 7-2
  • UFC Record: 3-1
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Elise Reed.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Miranda Granger. Beat Kay Hansen and a 5-1 grappler. Split decision over a 3-0 grappler.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: fringe average (45)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)

Really blown away by McKenna’s grappling in the Granger fight. The top of dominance she displayed wasn’t expected as she closed as only a -190 favorite. But she’s 23 years old and her development is speeding along. I didn’t see any evidence that her striking had gotten any better though as her striking with Granger was close to equal. The main headline coming out of Vlismas’ fight with Martin is that her wrestling has improved to a 60. Martin got nowhere close to taking her down. Could only control her for brief moments in the clinch along the fence. Striking remains a 60 as well. Classic striker vs grappler here. McKenna has the ability to take Vlismas down I think. Might catch her in a submission. But most likely out come is Vlismas being able to get back up and will have a monster power advantage on the feet.

Chris’ Pick: Vlismas by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Vlismas -150


Jake Matthews vs Matthew Semelsberger

  • Jake Matthews
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 10-5
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Andrew Holbrook.
  • Key Wins: Beat Jingliang Li.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Matt Semelsberger
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 4-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Martin Sano and Jason Witt. Beat AJ Fletcher and a 10-1 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

In my opinion, the market was over rating Semelsberger going into the Alex Morono fight because of Semelsberger’s power. Two KO wins in his last four fights. I thought he had 55 tools going in. Morono won, but the fight was much closer than I thought it’d be. And I think this was more a case of Semelsberger showing up improved versus me under rating him. So much so that it’s possible his striking could be as high as a 65. Matthews really blew me away. The narrative going into his last fight was focused on Fialho and how well he was doing and could be potentially turning into a star. But Matthews, who came into the UFC at a really young age, has always had potential. And in his 15th UFC fight, he put on the performance of his career, out striking Fialho. And having the cardio to use such heavy pressure and not get tired. Even though Semelsberger is making strides, I’m confident this new version of Matthews will be too much.

Chris’ Pick: Matthews by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Matthews -300


Julian Marquez vs Deron Winn

  • Julian Marquez
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 4-2
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Alessio di Chirico.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Sam Alvey, Darren Stewart, and Maki Pitolo. Knocked out a 7-2 grappler and a 4-1 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Deron Winn
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 2-3
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Darren Stewart.
  • Beat Wins: Beat Antonio Arroyo and a well rounded 12-4 fighter.
  • Striking: average (50)
  • Power: below average (40)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Winn has his wrestling, but he’s going to need to evolve beyond that. He took on Phil Hawes in a bit of a mismatch. Hawes stuffed the take downs and out struck WInn 89 to 29. Winn’s striking is still a 50 for me. The final striking numbers between Marquez and Rodrigues don’t look close, with Rodrigues out landing him 33 to 13. But that’s because Rodrigues had Marquez hurt and was piling up the strikes before getting the KO. Before Marquez was hurt, the striking was a little closer. Enough for me to keep Marquez’s striking as a 60. I really like Marquez here. His striking will be better, with margin. Big time power advantage.

Chris’ Pick: Marquez by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Marquez -325


Said Nurmagomedov vs Saidyokub Kakhramonov

  • Said Nurmagomedov
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 4-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Cody Stamann, Ricardo Ramos, and Mark Striegl. Beat a well rounded 9-2 fighter, a well rounded 11-2 fighter, and a 16-3 grappler. Split decision over Justin Scoggins.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Saidyokub Kakharamonov
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 10-2
  • UFC Record: 2-0
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Trevin Jones. Knocked out Askar Askar. Beat Ronnie Lawrence and a 5-2 grappler.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Grappling: above average (60)

I’m still blown away by how good Kakhramonov is. His resume outside the UFC doesn’t scream elite prospect, but that’s exactly what he is after he was able to out class another top prospect in Ronnie Lawrence. Kakhramonov was able to take Lawrence down repeatedly and the most impressive thing is he had the cardio to do that for the entire fight. Could you believe that Said was a -460 favorite going into the Silva de Andrade fight? Craziness. I thought Said’s price should’ve closer to -150. And it was close. Striking was close to equal. And I actually thought Silva de Andrade won the fight, landing with more damage and doing slightly better in the wrestling. This is a really interesting fight to truly see where Kakhramonov’s skills are at. I think he wins here, but it’ll be close.

Chris’ Pick: Kakhramonov by decision.

What I think odds should be: Kakhramonov -135


Maheshate Hayisaer vs Rafa Garcia

  • Maheshate Hayisaer
  • Age: 22
  • Pro Record: 7-1
  • UFC Record: 2-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Steve Garcia. Beat a 7-0 striker.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)
  • Rafa Garcia
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 2-3
  • Key Wins: Submitted Jesse Ronson. Knocked out a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Beat a 10-3 striker. Beat Natan Levy. Majority decision win over a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)

Not much to take away from Maheshate’s KO win over Garcia. Fight only lasted a minute. And not much to take away from Garcia’s fight with Drakkar Klose as the fight was close, as expected. Garcia reaffirmed his tools. The UFC made this fight to test Maheshate’s wrestling and I do think it’s a bit too much, too soon. I think Garcia will be able to control Mashestate on the ground for most of the fight.

Chris’ Pick: Garcia by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Garcia -225


Bryan Battle vs Rinat Fakhretdinov

  • Bryan Battle
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 8-1
  • UFC Record: 3-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Takashi Sato. Submitted a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Beat Tresean Gore.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)
  • Rinat Fakheretdinov
  • Age: 31
  • Pro Record: 19-1
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 13-2 fighter. Beat Andreas Michailidis.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: above average (60)

It’s possible I’m grading Fakhertdinov’s wrestling too high. It could be a 60. But it was his cardio and ability to wrestle the whole entire fight against 55 grappler Michailidis that makes the tool a 65 for me. That was Fakhertdinov’s UFC debut. Not much striking. Could be a close fight, but I see Fakheretdinov getting some take downs and probably landing a few more shots. Can’t take much out of Battle’s 44 second KO over Sato except that it’s time to upgrade his power to a 60. This fight with Fakhertdinov is obviously going to test Battle’s wrestling. And in taking this fight on less than 2 weeks notice, it’ll test his cardio too. Unless Battle turns out to be better than I think he is, Fakheretdinov should win here.

Chris’ Pick: Fakheretdinov by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Fakheretdinov -250


Manel Kape vs David Dvorak

  • Manel Kape
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 17-6
  • UFC Record: 2-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Zhalgas Zhumagulov, Ode Osbourne, and a 14-1 striker. Submitted a 14-5 striker.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)
  • David Dvorak
  • Age: 30
  • Pro Record: 20-4
  • UFC Record: 3-1
  • Key Losses: Beat by a 6-4 grappler.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 grappler. Submitted a 16-2 striker. Beat Jordan Espiniosa and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)

I was confident Dvorak had 60 tools going into his fight with Matheus Nicolau, but it turned out he’s better than I thought. Striking and grappling was close to equal, so I’m upgrading his tools to 65’s. Kape had his own fight with Nicolau. Split decision loss. But since then, Kape has unlocked more power, had two 1st round knockouts in a row. Reaffirmed his 65 striking in his last fight with Zhumagulov. I have both guys graded identically, but I have more confidence that Kape’s power is a 65. And it’s even possible his striking could be a 70.

Chris’ Pick: Kape by split decision.

What I think the odds should be: Kape -125


Sergey Morozov vs Journey Newson

  • Sergey Morozov
  • Age: 33
  • Pro Record: 18-6
  • UFC Record: 2-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-0 grappler and a 5-0-1 wrestler. Beat Raulian Paiva, Khalid Taha, a well rounded 15-5 fighter, an 11-3 wrestler and a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Journey Newson
  • Age: 33
  • Pro Record: 10-3
  • UFC Record: 1-2
  • Key Wins: Beat Fernie Garcia.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: above average wrestling (60)
  • Grappling: average (50)

Newson hasn’t fought in a couple years, was an underdog to Garcia, but showed little rust in upsetting him. Fight went about as I expected, except Garcia was able to get back up after being taken down which means Garcia’s wrestling is more of a 55. The line closed with Morozov as a -175 favorite over Paiva, but I think that had more to do with the market under rating Paiva. It’s not likely Morozov has improved a ton as he was recently submitted by Douglas SIlva de Andrade. But I do need to upgrade his striking to a 65. I really like Morozov here. His striking is better, with margin. Also look for Morozov to mix in some take downs too.

Chris’ Pick: Morozov by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Morozov -400


Tafon Nchukwi vs Vitor Petrino

  • Tafon Nchukwi
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 3-3
  • Key Wins: Knocked out William Knight and an 8-2 striker. Beat Mike Rodriguez and Jamie Pickett.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Vitor Petrino
  • Age: 25
  • Pro Record: 7-0
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Rodolfo Bellato twice and Gadzhimurad Antigulov.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)

Chris’ Pick: Nchukwi by 2nd round knockout.

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