-Max Holloway: The UFC made this fight with Holloway and Edgar because they needed a title fight for this show and they want Alexander Volkanovski to get his title shot in October in Australia. On merit, Edgar hasn’t really done much to deserve this title shot. He’s coming off a close decision win over Cub Swanson that happened over a year ago. 37 years old now. Has only won 3 of his last 5 fights. And just because Holloway lost to Dustin Poirier at 155 lbs, his win over Brian Ortega hasn’t gone anywhere. Holloway is still Holloway. And even though champions have a hard time coming back from losses, Holloway didn’t lose his 145 lb belt and Edgar is a soft bounce back fight. Holloway has plus plus striking, plus plus cardio, plus plus take down defense. I think Holloway blitzes Edgar and knocks him out of the 1st round so he absorbs minimal damage to make sure he’s ready for the Volkanovski fight in October.
-Felicia Spencer: UPSET SPECIAL 1: This is my favorite underdog pick of 2019 so far. To most of the betting public, this is a squash. As of this pick, one book has Cris Cyborg as heavy as -690. That’s just insane for a bunch of reasons. But the biggest reason the number is the number is because most have no clue who Spencer is or how good she is. Spencer is 28 years old. 7-0 pro record. Won her UFC debut by submitting Megan Anderson. Before that, she submitted wrestler Pam Sorenson, who’s really good and will probably be in the UFC soon at 145 lbs. Spencer’s best tool is her plus grappling. But is competent enough on the feet to have average striking. Cyborg is 34 years old. 20-2 pro record. Has plus plus striking. But she’s one dimensional. All she’s needed is take down defense and her striking. Because for years, there was no talent at 145 lbs. And Tonya Evinger is decent, but not great. And Cyborg struggled to look good in the first couple rounds of that fight. Struggled with Evinger trying to grapple her. Plus the vast majority of champions are never the same after they lose the belt. It’s hard to come back from that. Can Spencer grab a hold of Cyborg, drag her to the ground and submit her? It’s not a guarantee, but I think Spencer is more likely to win than Cyborg. I’m going Spencer getting the submission win in the 2nd round.
-Niko Price: UPSET SPECIAL 2: This fight could go either way. Price is 29 years old. 5-2 UFC record. Has plus striking, average grappling. He takes on Geoff Neal who’s 28 years old. 4-0 in the UFC. Also has plus striking. Both fighters are really similar but I think the experience advantage for Price is going to be the difference. Neal has looked good in the UFC so far, but hasn’t fought anyone with the level of Price’s striking. And Price has fought some very good guys. So I’ll go with 2nd round knockout for Price.
-Arman Tsarukyan: It’s not too often we have a 22 year old prospect fight someone with a 5-1 UFC record in their debut and after losing, taking on an opponent that’s 7-4 in the UFC. And despite the 0-1 record Tsarukyan has, the oddsmakers have him a 2 to 1 favorite to beat the 7-4 UFC fighter. Which speaks to how highly touted Tsarukyan is. Tsarukyan fought future title contender Islam Makhachev and going into that fight, I thought we were going to have a blow out, but to my amazement, Tsarukyan held his own and it was a close fight. Tsarukyan stuffed Makhachev’s take downs and the striking was close. Based on the resume and what my eyes saw, Tsarukyan has above average striking, plus wrestling, and plus submissions. This is what a future title contender looks like. So it’s exciting to see what he can do against Oliver Aubin-Mercier. 30 years old. Plus wrestling, plus submissions, average striking. Aubin-Mercier had been gaining momentum until losing the last 2 to Alexander Hernandez and Gilbert Burns. I’m expecting this fight to stay on the feet. If Makhachev couldn’t take Tsarukyan down, no way Aubin-Mercier can. Tsarukyan will have the advantage on the feet and knocks OAM out in the 1st round.
-Marc-Andre Barriault: UPSET SPECIAL 3: I wasn’t really impressed with Barriault until last year when he broke through knocking out a 9-3 striker. And then followed that up by knocking out a 7-1 striker. Before those 2 wins, he was only knocking out tomato cans. Barriault is 29 years old. 11-2 pro record. Lost his UFC debut to Andrew Sanchez. Pretty steep test, no shame losing. I’d grade Barriault as having above average striking, with the potential of it reaching plus. And Krzysztof Jotko is a very favorable matchup. Jotko has a 7-4 UFC record. Also 29 years old. Has above average striking, but below average power. He’s a volume puncher. It’s possible Barriault out lands Jotko in the strikes, but even if he doesn’t, I’m confident Barriault will eventually land the power shots to knock Jotko out. 2nd round.
-Viviane Araujo: Being that I watch so many fights, it’s pretty hard for a fighter to really impress me in their UFC debut, but Araujo hit it out of the park. She’s a natural flyweight. But takes a fight on short notice at 135 lbs against Talita Bernardo. And Bernardo is pretty good. Has above average grappling. Not only did Araujo stuff the take downs, but she lit Bernardo up with strikes the whole fight until Araujo finally knocked her out in the 3rd round. Araujo is 32 years old. She’s got plus striking and power. And her grappling is at least above average. This is a title contender type prospect. And I actually think her opponent Alexis Davis is a step down from Bernardo. Yes, Davis is the bigger name and she’s only 34 years old, but her body has endured 28 pro fights. I think her body is wearing down. Her skills aren’t what they used to be. Her grappling used to be plus, but now I grade it as just above average. Araujo is going to make this and stand up fight and will knock Davis out in the 1st round.
-Hakeem Dawodu: Seems like the UFC had a hard time getting an opponent for Dawodu. That’s because Yoshihori Horie is not ready for the UFC. Yes, he’s got an 8-1 pro record. 24 years old. But all his wins have been over cans. And the 1 loss came last year, getting knocked out by a 11-8 journeyman. All of Horie’s tools are below average. Dawodu is 2-1 in the UFC. 28 years old. Got out grappled and submitted by Danny Henry in his debut. Out struck Austin Arnett. And I was impressed in his win over wrestler Kyle Bochniak because Dawodu showed improved take down defense. Enough to get a split decision win. I’m still not sure what Dawodu’s upside is, but he’s going to light up Horie. 1st round knockout.
-Gavin Tucker: Tucker’s coming off a long 2 year layoff. 33 years old. 1-1 UFC record. Pretty average prospect. Average striking. Average grappling. Has the upside of a lower tier gate keeper. He takes on Sung Woo Choi. 26 years old. Only has average striking. This fight is cut and dry to me. Tucker will take Choi down and do enough on the ground to win by decision.
-Deiveson Figueiredo: The question in this fight, like so many other Figueiredo fights, is whether or not Figueiredo’s opponent can take him down and do it enough to win. Jarred Brooks was close. John Moraga couldn’t do it. But Jussier Formiga was able to take Figueiredo down. Now we have Alexandre Pantoja. 29 years old. 5-1 in the UFC. Very well rounded. Above average striking and grappling. But to me lacks a true elite tool. Figueiredo is 31 years old. 4-1 UFC record. Is known for his plus plus striking and power. But he’s sneaky in that he does have average grappling. I’m thinking with all the grapplers and wrestlers Figueiredo has been facing, his take down defense should continue to get better and Pantoja’s grappling isn’t on the level of Formiga’s. I think Figueiredo will get taken down maybe a couple times but will be on the feet long enough to knock Formiga out. 2nd round.
-Gillian Robertson: Really hard fight to pick. And I can definitely see credible reasons for picking Sarah Frota to win this fight. Frota has a 9-1 pro record. 32 years old. Lost her UFC debut against Livinha Souza by split decision. She’s got above average grappling and based on her improved striking, I’d say it’s probably an average tool now. She does have a knockout win over Vivi Araujo. But that was back when Araujo was 3-0 and just had grappling. Robertson is 3-2 in the UFC, 24 years old, but she’s been fighting way, way tougher competition than Frota. She’s lost to Cynthia Calvillo and Hannah Goldy. But she’s submitted the likes of Hannah Cifers, Emily Whitmire and Molly McCann. None of those are grapplers though. She’s got easy plus grappling with the potential upside of it becoming plus plus. But she’s a submission specialist. Has 0 knockouts. It’s possible Frota uses her grappling to keep the fight standing up where Frota would have a big advantage. But because of my belief in Robertson getting better, I do think she gets Frota down and do think Robertson submits her in the 2nd round.
-Kyle Stewart: Erik Koch, who used to fight at 145 lbs, is making his debut at 170 lbs. Which is more interesting to me than another 155 lb Koch fight. He started his WEC/UFC career 5-1 and was close to getting a featherweight title shot but was Ricardo Lamas knocked him out and he was never the same. After the Lamas knockout, Koch has gone 2-4 over a span of 6 years. At this point, I’d grade his regressing skills as having above average grappling and average striking. However, it’s possible the weight cut was getting tough on him and he could reinvent himself at welterweight. Stewart lost his UFC debut to Chance Rencountre, but there’s not much shame in that being that Rencountre is pretty good and Stewart took the fight on short notice. Stewart is a top prospect. 30 years old. 11-2 pro record. Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter in his pro debut. And has beat and finished a handful of quality prospects outside the UFC. He’s got above average striking and average striking. Main weakness he’s shown is take down defense. So there’s a path for Koch to win, if he can take Stewart down. But with a full camp, I think we see a much better version of Stewart, he keeps the fight on the feet and knocks Koch out in the 2nd round.
-Giacomo Lemos: This is a projection pick. Tanner Boser has the experience edge. 16-5 pro record. 27 years old, which is pretty young for a UFC heavyweight. Has average striking. Lemos is 30 years old. 5-0. And he’s got above average striking. As in, better striking than Boser. But it is a projection I’m making because Lemos hasn’t fought anybody. So maybe he looked good because he was fighting cans. But I’m not that impressed with Boser. He only has 4 wins in his last 8 fights. Boser is very hittable and I think Lemos knocks him out in the 1st round.