Junior dos Santos vs Curtis Blaydes
—Curtis Blaydes
There hasn’t been a wrestler like Blaydes in the heavyweight division since Cain Velasquez. 28 years old. Which is pretty young for a heavyweight. Already has a 7-2 UFC record. Only 2 losses? Francis Ngannou. Both of them. Everybody else, Blaydes has been able to take his opponent down and win. And sometimes knockout. Alexey Oleinik. Mark Hunt. Alistair Overeem. Justin Willis. And the ground and pound against Shamil Abdurakhimov looked especially vicious. Blaydes wrestling is an easy plus. And he’s got plus ground and pound. He’s a bit one dimensional, but the dimension is pretty dominant. The wrestling has the ceiling of a plus plus tool. Dos Santos is 35 years old. 15-5 UFC record. He’s only lost to champions Velasquez and Stipe Miocic. And contenders in Ngannou and Overeem. Dos Santos has wins over Fabricio Werdum, Shane Carwin. The 1st Velasquez fight. Dos Santos won that. Frank Mir. Mark Hunt. Beat Miocic the first time they fought. And his last big win was a knockout over Derrick Lewis. Dos Santos still has plus striking. And he has average wrestling. Dos Santos’ best chance in winning this fight is to do what he did to Velasquez in the first fight and do what Ngannou did to Blaydes. Blitz and try for a quick knockout. So dos Santos has a chance. But more than likely, Blaydes will be able to get dos Santos down. Mount at some point. And finish the fight with ground and pound. 2nd round.
Rafael dos Anjos vs Michael Chiesa
—Michael Chiesa
This card has a lot of really close fights. This is the toughest for me to pick. Rafael dos Anjos is 35 years old now. 18-10 overall record in the UFC. 4-3 UFC record at 170 lbs. But the 3 losses were against the best 3 guys in the division. Kamaru Usman. Colby Convington. Leon Edwards. Dos Anjos biggest wins at 170 lbs were against Robbie Lawler, who dos Anjos was able to take down and control. And Kevin Lee, where dos Anjos won because Lee started to gas out in the middle of the fight. A guy like dos Anjos, it’s hard to pinpoint where his skills are. He’s 35 years old and has had 28 UFC fights in his career. That’s a ton of mileage. And although he’s lost only to the best, he’s still lost 3 of his last 4 fights. But to my eye, dos Anjos still has near plus wrestling and average submissions. And dos Anjos’ striking is above average paired with average power. Chiesa is 32 years old. 9-4 UFC record overall. 2-0 UFC record at 170 lbs. But I think Chiesa is better than his record. Chiesa lost to Jorge Masvidal in 2013 in Chiesa’s 3rd UFC fight. He lost to Joe Lauzon in 2014 from a doctor stoppage. Lost to Kevin Lee in 2017, but the referee screwed that one up, stopping the fight think Chiesa was unconscious when he wasn’t. Who knows who would’ve won that fight. And Chiesa should’ve beat Anthony Pettis but strategically made the wrong move in trying to trade strikes with Pettis. Chiesa has a decision win over Francisco Trinaldo. More impressively, he submitted Jim Miller and Beneil Dariush. Chiesa has plus grappling and average striking. Part of me thinks dos Anjos will be able to keep the fight on the feet where he’s likely to have better striking. Or at least be able to get back up after being taken down like he did recently against Lee. But after seeing the way Chiesa rag dolled Diego Sanchez, I ultimately think Chiesa will be able to get at least a few take downs and that’s all Chiesa will need. I’m going to stick my neck out a little bit and say Chiesa by 2nd round submission in the upset.
Alex Perez vs Jordan Espinosa
—Alex Perez
This fight is an example of why I’m excited that the UFC is keeping the men’s flyweight division. Perez is a legit title contender in the making, despite getting knocked out by Joseph Benavidez. 27 years old. 5-1 UFC record. Pro record is 22-5. He lost his 4th and 5th pro fights to below average competition, but he was only 18 years old at the time. Perez has also lost to a really good 10-3 grappler and got submitted by a former UFC fighter Jared Papazian. But Perez has won 9 out of his last 10 fights. He submitted a well rounded 9-3 fighter and submitted a well rounded 6-1 fighter. To me, he really broke out when he knocked out Jose Torres. I watched that fight and said, okay, he’s got plus striking now. Perez also has average wrestling and submissions. Jordan Espinosa is 30 years old. 3-1 UFC record at 125 lbs. 14-6 pro record that is deceiving. Most of Espinosa’s fights outside the UFC were at 135 lbs. Espinosa got submitted by a surging Matt Schnell. But he submitted a well rounded 10-3 fighter and knocked out an 11-3 striker. Espinosa has above average striking. He also has average wrestling and submissions. Fight will play out on the feet. Espinosa has a puncher’s chance. But Perez’s striking is on another level. Perez by 2nd round knockout.
Angela Hill vs Hannah Cifers
—Hannah Cifers
Another close fight. Cifers is 27 years old. 2-1 in the UFC so far. Lost to Maycee Barber. Obviously no shame there. Her only other 2 career losses came against UFC fighters earlier in her pro career, losing to Gillian Robertson and her first pro fight against Heather Clark. Cifers beat Polyana Viana by split decision and out classed Jodie Esquibel. Cifers also has knocked out a 5-1 grappler. Cifers’ striking is above average and she also has average wrestling. Angela Hill is 34 years old. 5-8 UFC record. Most of her losses have come against top 15 ranked fighters though. Hill’s biggest wins are decisions over Maryna Moroz and Ashley Yoder. Hill has average striking and average wrestling. This fight will play out on the feet. I think Cifers has the better striking technique and better power. I think the power will be the difference in Cifers winning by split decision.
Jamahal Hill vs Darko Stosic
—Jamahal Hill
Pretty easy fight to pick. Darko Stosic is 27 years old. 1-2 UFC record. 13-3 pro record. Lost to Devin Clark and Kennedy Nzechukwu. No shame there. Stosic also lost to a 10-2 striker in his 5th pro fight. Stosic knocked out Jeremy Kimball but all his other wins are over cans. He has average striking. Hill is 28 years old. 6-0 pro record. Knocked out a 9-2 striker in his UFC debut. All other wins over cans. I grade Hill as having average striking and average wrestling. So obviously the big difference maker in this fight will be Hill’s wrestling. I see the take downs coming with not much resistance. Hill by decision.
Bevon Lewis vs Dequan Townsend
—Bevon Lewis
The reason Dequan Townsend is in the UFC is because he took a short notice fight against Dalcha Lungiambula. Townsend is 33 years old. 19-9 pro record. Got knocked out by Lungiambula in his UFC debut. He also gets this fight with Lewis on short notice because Alen Amedovski got hurt. Townsend is a journeyman. All his tools are below average, but he’s best at striking. Lewis is 28 years old. 1-2 in the UFC so far. Lost to 2 quality guys in Uriah Hall and Darren Stewart. Matter of fact, Lewis was beating Hall until Hall knocked Lewis out in the 3rd round. And Stewart is really good now. He’s the only one who’s not been finished by Edmen Shahbazyan. Lewis knocked out a 4-0 striker in his UFC debut. All other wins over cans. Lewis has above average striking and average wrestling. This is a mismatch. Lewis is going to knock Townsend out in the 1st round.
Arnold Allen vs Nik Lentz
—Nik Lentz
Lentz has won me many an upset over the years. 35 years old. Remarkable 14-7 UFC record. Done very quietly. Since 2013, Lentz has only been losing to top guys. Charles Oliveira. Chad Mendes. Islam Makhachev. David Teymur. Those are not bad losses. And Lentz has beat some good ones too. Tyson Griffin. Diego Nunes. And just last year, Scott Holtzman. Earlier in Lentz’s career, his wrestling and submission game carried him. But in the past couple years, his striking has improved making him pretty well rounded. I now grade Lentz’s striking as above average and paired with average power. Lentz’s wrestling and submissions remain above average. Allen is 25 years old. 6-0 UFC record. Allen’s only career loss was against a 7-2 striker. Allen has a split decision win over Makwan Amirkhani, submitted Mads Burnell and beat Jordan Rinaldi. Allen has above average striking paired with average power. And he also has average wrestling and submissions. So he’s very well rounded. I think this fight is going to go a lot like Allen’s fight with Amirkhani. But the differences would be that Lentz is more of a wrestler and Amirkhani more of a grappler. So I think Lentz might do a better job at keeping Allen on the ground than Amirkhani. And Lentz’s stand up is way better than Amirkhani’s. Like in the Allen vs Amirkhani fight, the stand up was all Allen and that helped Allen win the fight. But here, the stand up should be close to equal. Lentz’s wrestling is what’s going to win him a close decision.
Lucie Pudilova vs Justine Kish
—Lucie Pudilova
Razor close, coin flip of a fight. Kish is 31 years old. 6-2 pro record. 2-2 UFC record. She lost to Felic Herrig and Ji Yeon Kim, wasn’t able to take either down and lost in the stand up. But she does have quality wins over Nina Ansaroff and Randa Markos. Kish’s wrestling is a little above average and her striking is close to average. Lucie Pudilova is 25 years old. 2-4 in the UFC. All of her losses came against quality opponents, including a split decision loss to Irene Aldana. Pudilova has above average striking paired with below average power. And her wrestling is close to average. So the fight really comes down to whether or not Kish can take Pudilova down. And after rewatching Kish’s fight with Ashley Yoder, I think Pudilova will be able to stuff the take downs at least some of the time and get back up if she is taken down. On the feet, Pudilova has an advantage and I’m picking her to win by decision.
Montel Jackson vs Felipe Colares
—Montel Jackson
Easy fight to pick. Jackson is 27 years old. 3-1 in the UFC so far. 8-1 pro record. Elite prospect. He’s also well known for having some of the biggest hands in the UFC, despite weighing in at 135 lbs. His only career loss came against Ricky Simon due to be out wrestled and not being able to keep up with Simon’s pace. But he knocked down and submitted Brian Kelleher, out struck and out wrestled Andre Soukhamthath. I was actually surprised by how often Jackson took Soukhamthath down. And he’s also knocked out a 4-0 grappler and a 9-1 striker. Jackson’s striking is near plus. He also has above average wrestling. Felipe Colares is 25 years old. 9-1 pro record. 1-1 UFC record. His only loss was getting out struck by Geraldo de Freitas. As for wins, he out grappled Domingo Pilarte to win by split decision. All of Colares’ other wins are over cans. Colares has above average grappling. Jackson will easily keep the fight on the feet and he’s going to pick Colares apart in the striking. 1st round knockout for Jackson.
Sara McMann vs Lina Lansberg
—Lina Lansberg
Lansberg is 37 years old. 4-2 in the UFC at 135 lbs. She got knocked out by Aspen Ladd and out struck on the feet by Yana Kunitskaya. She has 2 okay wins over Lucie Pudilova and Gina Mazany where she got the better of the striking. But where things get interesting is that despite Lansberg’s age, she’s greatly improved her wrestling in the last year. She kept Tonya Evinger from taking her down. Beat her. And she used the wrestling to take Macy Chiasson down to beat her in a major upset. Lansberg has above average striking paired with average power. And I’d now grade her wrestling as slightly above average. Sara McMann is 39 years old. 5-5 UFC record. To me, her skills seem to really regress in her last fight, getting submitted by Marion Reneau. All her other losses have been against champions and contender Ketlen Vieira. McMann’s biggest wins have been over Jessica Eye and a submission win over Alexis Davis. It’s hard to gauge where McMann’s skills are at. On the one hand, she’s only lost to the best of the best, plus Reneau. On the other hand, she hasn’t beaten a single elite opponent either. And her last fight was the Reneau loss. And she hasn’t fought in 2 years. So I have to err on the side of regression here in saying the wrestling is now likely above average and the submission skills are probably average. I don’t think McMann will be able to get the take downs. Lansberg has a clear advantage on the feet. I’m pretty confident Lansberg will win by decision.
Brett Johns vs Tony Gravely
—Tony Gravely
Brett Johns is 27 years old. 3-2 UFC record. Hasn’t fought in a year and a half. The 2 losses have come against elite guys. Aljamain Sterling and Pedro Munhoz. Johns’ biggest win was a submission over Joe Soto, but he’s pretty one dimensional. His wrestling is above average. Gravely is 28 years old. Won his UFC debut in knocking out a well rounded 15-5 fighter. 2 of Gravely’s 5 losses came against fighters that made it to the UFC. Merab Dvalishvili and Manny Bermudez. He also got submitted by a 6-1 grappler and got submitted by a 6-0 grappler. 4 of Gravely’s 5 losses have come by submission. His other loss to Dvalishvili came from getting out wrestled. So there’s a pattern. But since 2017, Gravely has won 11 of his last 12 fights including wins over a 7-2 wrestler, a 5-1 grappler. Then knocking out an 8-0 grappler, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 7-2 wrestler. So the big improvement Gravely has made is getting a lot better with his hands and ground and pound. Gravely has above average wrestling and striking that is slightly above average. In this fight, the wrestling likely cancels itself out. This is going to be a stand up fight. I’m confident Gravely has the better striking. I like Gravely by decision.
Herbert Burns vs Nate Landwehr
—Nate Landwehr
All things being equal, when it’s wrestler vs grappler, the wrestler usually has the advantage, Landwehr is 31 years old. 13-2 pro record. He lost to a well rounded journeyman in his 3rd pro fight. He also lost to a well rounded 8-1 fighter. But Landwehr has also beat a lot of quality opponents too. He knocked out a well rounded 6-1 fighter, beat a 6-2 grappler, a 9-2 grappler, knocked out a 13-2 grappler, beat a 15-3 grappler twice, and knocked out a well rounded 10-1 fighters. That’s 6 high level wins. I grade Landwehr having above average wrestling and average striking. Herbert Burns is also 31 years old. 9-2 pro record. Submitted a journeyman grappler in his UFC debut. Burns achilles heel so far has been going against wrestlers. He lost to an 11-0 wrestler and a 8-0 wrestler. Burns does have a submission win over a 5-0 striker, beat a 10-1 striker, submitted a well rounded 9-1 fighter, and submitted a 7-2 striker. Burns has above average grappling. Pretty straight forward fight to pick. Landwehr will have the take down defense to keep the fight on the feet. And might even be able to put Burns on his back. But I think Landwehr will want this fight on the feet where he should easily out strike Burns. Landwehr will cruise to a decision win.