-Francis Ngannou: Stipe Miocic has been a very good heavyweight champion. Probably a better champion than Cain Velasquez due to his consistency. But Miocic has not been as dominant as Ngannou. Although it’s been a long time, I remember Stefan Struve knocking Miocic out 5 years again. I remember Junior dos Santos outclassing Miocic, back when dos Santos was more in his prime. I remember the Miocic vs. Alistair Overeem title fight. And Overeem had Miocic rocked and in trouble. But Miocic hung in and was able to come back and knock Overeem out. Mioic hasn’t been untouchable like Ngannou. And I don’t buy into the idea that Mioic is going to call upon his wrestling when he hasn’t used it in a UFC fight in years and years. Plus Ngannou has the intimidation factor, which is a real thing in fights. In all my 10 plus years watching fights, when a fighter is as dominant as Ngannou has been, it translates into winning title fights. The same mistakes Miocic makes from time to time, he’s going to pay for it against Ngannou. The only fight Ngannou has lost was his 2nd pro fight, taking it 2 weeks after his pro debut back in 2013. Since then, he’s been untouchable, not being challenged at all. Buckle up folks. Ngannou is about to become not only champion, but will set records as UFC heavyweight champion. The closest thing the UFC has had to Mike Tyson.
-Volkan Oezdemir: UPSET SPECIAL 1: This is a pick em fight in my opinion. Coin flip fight. Could go either way. But a big reason I’m picking Oezdemir is based on what the odds are. To be clear, I can easily see Daniel Cormier winning this fight. Oezdemir’s never fought a wrestler like Cormier. And Cormier could grapple, wrestle, take down, and submit Oezdemir. Could happen. But at the same time. Cormier is 38 years old. And coming off the biggest loss in his career, a 2nd loss to Jon Jones. And the first time Cormier fought Anthony Johnson, Johnson caught Cormier with a punch and almost knocked him out. It’s possible that Oezdemir can catch Cormier in the same way, but finish the job. Oezdemir is in his prime. 28 years old. And did beat a very good wrestler in Ovince St. Preux, winning on short notice, without his best cardio. So I see reasons for both fighters winning. I go back and forth. But I’m picking Oezdemir because as of this pick, I can get Oezdemir at +290. Cause if I’m going to be wrong in picking the fight, I might as well be wrong with an underdog pick. So I’m going with Oezdemir by his most likely path to victory. 1st round knockout.
-Shane Burgos: Very intriguing fight where the winner is likely to become a contender at 145 lbs. Calvin Kattar really surprised me in his UFC debut upsetting Andre Fili. But I have to pick Burgos due to his superior track record. He’s looked better against top competition than Kattar has. Plus Burgos is 26 years old and in that age where he’s still developing. And because half of Kattar’s pro wins have come via decision, it’s usually a sign that he has average tools. For all these reasons, I really like Burgos by decision.
-Gian Villante: Villante is a lower tier gate keeper with a 5-6 UFC record. He’s pretty consistent. And this is going to be a typical Villante fight. Francimar Barroso has a 4-3 UFC record, but it’s not as impressive when you take a closer look at his wins. Ednaldo Oliveira, Elvis Mutapcic, Ryan Jimmo, Darren Stewart. None of them are in the UFC anymore. All decision wins for Barroso. So Barroso is sort of like Villante, except he doesn’t have the finishing ability. This is going to be a 2nd round Villante knockout.
-Thomas Almeida: Both fighters are at a cross roads here, which makes for an interesting fight. I see more upside in Almeida. Rob Font I think is at his developmental ceiling. He’s in his prime but won’t be getting too much better at 30 years old. But I think Almeida has more development to come being 26 years old. Almeida also still has the shiny pedigree of being the best prospect at his weight class in a long time. Has a 21-2 pro record, which not too many fighters in any weight class have. And he’s only lost to the best of the best in former champion Cody Garbrandt and possible future champion Jimmie Rivera, which Almeida lost a split decision to. I also think Pedro Munhoz drew up a pretty good blueprint on how to attack Font. I like Almeida by 2nd round knockout.
-Brandon Davis: Davis was brought in to Dana White’s Contender Series to lose to top prospect Austin Arnett. But Davis didn’t get the memo and upset Arentt. Easily the biggest win of Davis’ career and makes his prospect profile at 27 years old more interesting. Davis has shown he can finish fighters with losing records, but not quality prospects. So as a prospect, I’m still skeptical on Davis’ upside. But I think even less of Kyle Bochniak. 1-2 UFC record. And I’m still not sure why the UFC signed him to begin with. He had a 6-0 record not beating anybody. Either case, if Davis can beat a guy like Austin Arnett, he’s not going to have any trouble with Bochniak. Davis by decision.
-Abdul Razak Alhassan: I’m really confused on why the UFC signed Sabah Homasi, who had a 11-5 record. Homasi got knocked out in his UFC debut against Tim Means and I expect the same result here. Alhassan had 7 first round knockouts in a row, including his UFC debut. But then got exposed a little bit as having a flaw in wrestling and grappling when he lost to gatekeeper Omari Akhmedov. I expect Alhassan to win by first round knockout as Homasi is pretty similar to other opponents Alhassan has knocked out over his career.
-Alex Pantoja: Good test for Pantoja against a certified gatekeeper in Dustin Ortiz. But I see Pantoja as a contender and will likely get a title shot at 125 lbs within a couple years. Ortiz is predictable. He knocks out fighters that don’t belong in the UFC. Will eke out close split decision wins against fellow gate keepers. And will lose to the upper tier of the division. I think Pantoja will be able to keep the fight on the feet and has way better striking than Ortiz, who has power, but not as much technique. Pantoja by decision.
-Dan Ige: UPSET SPECIAL 2: Really close fight. Both fighters are decent prospects. Both have beaten pretty good competition. Both are about the same age. Ige being 26 years old. Julio Arce 28 years old. Only real difference I see is Arce not consistently finishing fights against average to poor competition. His pro record is 13-2 and 6 of his 13 wins have been via decision. It’s a little bit of a red flag in his skill level not being on par with most prospects that enter the UFC. Because of that, I got to go with Ige winning by decision.
-Matt Bessette: UPSET SPECIAL 3: Barzola has a 3-1 record in the UFC, but if you look closer, it’s not as impressive. First off, he lost to Kyle Bochniak who has a 1-2 record in the UFC. Barzola failed to finish Horacio Guitierrez (4-3 pro record) and Chris Avila (5-6 pro record). Barzola did upset Gabriel Benitez in his last fight, but I think that had more to do with Benitez not showing up and was more of a fluke for Barzola. Matt Bessette is taking this fight on a week and a half’s notice. Bessette has a 22-7 record. Is 33 years old. I go back and forth on picking this fight. Ultimately, when I can’t decide on who to pick in a fight, I go with the underdog. So if I lose, I’m not losing a larger amount of money. But I just don’t like Barzola’s profile. I don’t like how he fails to finish poor quality fighters. It shows that he’s well rounded, but doesn’t have the tools to beat a higher quality of opponent. And even though Bessette has the profile of a journeyman, at least he’s been finishing fights and looking dominant. Plus his win over 6-2 Joe Pingatore was impressive. So for all these reasons, I’m going with Bessette by decision.
-Islam Makhachev: Easy fight to pick. Gleison Tibau has been a very good gate keeper for the UFC’s 155 lb division for a lot of years. But he’s well past his prime now. Most of Tibau’s wins in the past few years have been against other over the hill fighters or fighters the UFC released. Makhachev is an elite prospect. He’s going to be stronger than Tibau and have no problem picking up the decision win.