-Kevin Lee: Make no mistake. This fight was made to have Lee come out of it as a star, same way Khabib did when he dominated Edson Barboza. Lee looks like he could become champion at the money division of 155 lbs. I’m under the belief that if Lee didn’t fight Tony Ferguson with staph infection, he wouldn’t beat Ferguson. Lee starched Ferguson in the 1st round. But then started to gas towards the end of the 2nd round and then Ferguson took over. Crazy thing is that Lee isn’t known for his stand up. He has 16 pro wins, only 1 knockout. Usually Lee wins with solid wrestling and submissions. So the fact that he out struck Ferguson and knocked him down shows how much Lee has developed. But getting back to the fight with Barboza, stylistically, this fight was tailor made for Lee to win. How does Barboza lose? When he gets taken down, then controlled or submitted. What is Lee good at? Take downs and submissions. Lee might see how striking goes, to see if he can hang with Barboza, but I think Lee is smart enough to eventually go for the path of least resistance which is taking Barboza down and submitting him, probably in the 2nd round.
-Frankie Edgar: I bring this up a lot in rematches because it really is true: historically, whoever won the first fight, usually wins the rematch. There’s a few exceptions, but most of the time, that’s the case. Most recently it happened with Rose Namajunas winning her rematch with Joanna. Same thing is going to happen here with Edgar vs Swanson. And the style matchup clinches it for me. The only time Edgar loses is when he’s getting out struck on the feet and is not able to take his opponent down. Swanson only loses when his opponent is able to take him down or submit him from the feet. Edgar showed back in 2014 he could take Swanson down and I don’t think Swanson’s take down defense has improved enough to change that. I see Edgar keeping the fight on the feet. Swanson getting the better of the striking. And Edgar taking Swanson down and controlling him on the ground long enough to get the decision win.
-Justin Willis: Chase Sherman is still young. 28 years old. To me, he looks like he’s going to get better. 2-3 in the UFC so far. Probably the upside of a mid tier gate keeper. Willis, way better prospect. 2-0 in the UFC so far. Both fighters are boxers. Sherman is not well rounded at all. He’s going to have no answer for Willis out striking him, so I’m picking Willis by 1st round knockout.
-Thiago Santos: Poor David Branch. Matchup definitely doesn’t favor him. Branch really reminds me of Neil Magny. Being that he’s very crafty and can be an effective mid to upper tier gate keeper. But Santos is going to be way too explosive and will be doing the same thing he’s been doing to the other 185 lb fighters in the division. In my opinion, Jack Hermansson and Anthony Smith are way better fighters than Branch, so I feel really confident in picking Santos by 1st round knockout.
-Aljamain Sterling: On paper, it looks like Brett Johns should win this fight. He’s undefeated with a 15-0 pro record, 3-0 in the UFC. 26 years old. Sterling is 6-3 in the UFC and coming off a devastating knockout. But there’s a couple good reasons for picking Sterling. First, Johns has fought below average competition in the UFC. So Johns hasn’t shown he can beat elite level competition yet. But secondly, and most importantly, Sterling is a horrible style matchup for him. Because Johns is very reliant on his wrestling to win fights. Stand up isn’t that great. Submissions are average. I think Sterling’s wrestling is better. And Sterling will use it to keep the fight on the feet where he probably has the striking advantage over Johns. Close fight, but I’m picking Sterling by decision. Johns isn’t well rounded enough, yet, to be touted as someone who will be a title contender.
-Dan Hooker: Jim Miller has had a mind boggling 28 fights in the UFC. That so rarely happens! Starting back in 2016, Miller reeled off 3 wins in a row and looked like he was having a career renaissance. But he beat really low quality competition. Fighters even more over the hill than Miller in Takanori Gomi, Joe Lauzon, and Thiago Alves. Since then, Miller got a big step up in competition and has now lost 3 in a row. Meanwhile, Hooker has really found a home in the 155 lb division. He started out 3-3 in the UFC at 145 lbs. But then made the decision to give 155 lbs a try with the weight cuts being so brutal. Since then he’s been 2-0 with 2 finishes. And if Hooker could finish Ross Pearson and Marc Diakiese, surely he can finish Miller. I’ll take Hooker by 1st round submission.
-Ryan LaFlare: Easy fight to pick. LaFlare was knocked out in his last fight because Alex Oliveira has really good take down defense. Fight stayed on the feet. Oliveira knocked LaFlare out. So the question in this fight is, can Alex Garcia do the same thing Oliveira did? I think the answer is no. LaFlare will be able to take Garcia down and control the fight and we should be looking at a boring decision win for LaFlare.
-Magomed Bibulatov: Despite getting knocked out by John Moraga in his last fight, Bibulatov is still an elite prospect and someone I see as becoming a title contender at 125 lbs. He’s a world class wrestler. But needs a lot of work on his stand up. Ulka Sasaki won’t pose a threat because he’s more of a grappler and submission fighter. But Bibulatov’s wrestling is so good and his ability to control the fight is so good, that he won’t be in any danger from Sasaki’s submission attempts. Bibulatov will bounce back and cruise to a decision win here.
-Luan Chagas: Most of my picks are not based on projection. I go more off track record. But Chagas is an elite prospect. 24 years old. 15-2 pro record. 1-1 in the UFC so far. He’s world class in Brazilian ju-jitsu. Wrestling isn’t that great. Solid grappling. Striking has gotten better as seen in his last fight against Jim Wallhead. Siyar Bahadurzada is heading towards the end of his career due to not being able to stay healthy. He’s only fought twice in the last 4 years. He’s pretty well rounded, but wrestling and takedown defense is his weakness. But when healthy, Bahadurzada can be a solid, mid tier gate keeper. On paper, I’d pick Bahadurzada. But Chagas is only 24 years old, was leaps and bounds better in his last fight, and I expect the same in this fight, an even better Chagas. I think it’s possible Chagas gets the better of the stand up, but if he gets in trouble, I think he can use the clinch to take Bahadurzada down where Chagas is going to have an advantage. But either way, I do see this fight getting to the ground where Chagas wins by 2nd round submission.
-Corey Anderson: On the surface, this might look like a difficult fight to pick. Both have similar track records in the UFC. Anderson is 6-4 in the UFC (9-4 if you count the 3 wins he picked up on The Ultimate Fighter) and Patrick Cummins is also 6-4 in the UFC (6-3 if you give him a mulligan for losing to Daniel Cormier on 1 week’s notice in his UFC debut). Yes, Cummins is much older at 37 years old, where Anderson is 28 years old, but Cummins only has 14 pro fights, so he doesn’t have much fight mileage on his body, so he could fight at a high level for another few years. To me, picking Anderson has to do with the style matchup. Both are great wrestlers. Cummins might be the better wrestler, but not by much. But I do know Anderson is definitely the better striker. And Anderson only loses fights when he’s beat by a superior striker. Cummins definitely is not that. Therefore, I think Anderson keeps the fight on the feet and gets back on track by knocking Cummins out in the 2nd round.
-Aspen Ladd: Leslie Smith is a decent mid tier gate keeper. 4-3 UFC record. Smith takes on probably the #1 prospect at 135 lbs in Aspen Ladd. 1-0 in the UFC, 6-0 pro record. 23 years old. Looked phenomenal against a very under rated Lina Lansberg. Stylistically, this is a horrible match up for Smith. She won’t be able to stop Ladd’s takedowns. And I predict that Ladd finishes this fight by 2nd round ground and pound knockout, the same way Ladd finished Lansberg.
-Ricky Simon: Close fight. Both Simon and Dvalishvili are solid wrestlers. Both are young, Dvalishvili being 27 years old, Simon is 25 years old. Dvalishvili lost his UFC debut to Frankie Saenz via split decision. 7-3 pro record. I don’t think Simon is the greatest prospect. But he has a much better track record of beating quality opponents outside the UFC. I think Simon is more well round and doesn’t have to outwrestle his opponents to win every fight like Dvalishvili does. I think both fighters wrestling will cancel each other out and Simon will get the better of the stand up to win by decision.
-Tony Martin: Martin has been under the radar as one of the more improving fighters in the UFC over the last few years. He signed with the UFC when he was 24 years old. Started out 1-3. But since then, has gone 3-1 with only a split decision loss to rising contender Oliver Aubin-Mercier. Now Martin is moving up to 170 lbs where I think he’ll do better, where the weight cut isn’t as brutal on him. Both Martin and Keita Nakamura are similar fighters. Strong wrestlers, great submissions. So I think the wrestling will cancel itself out in this fight and with Martin’s development, he should have the better striking to get a decision win.