
-Dustin Poirier: I just think that Poirier has more ways to win the fight than Justin Gaethje. Poirier is 6-1 in the UFC at 155 lbs. 4 of the 6 wins were via finish. Over quality competition. Yes, Gaethje does put on entertaining fights, but he gets hit a lot. I think there’s enough tape on Gaethje now for Poirier to expose those holes. But I can also see Poirier trying to take the fight to the ground where he’d have a huge advantage. I think Poirier tries standing up with Gaethje to start the fight. Gaethje wins the 1st round. Poirier takes Gaethje down in the 2nd and gets the momentum. Poirier is also going to have a big cardio advantage and I’m going to pick Poirier submitting Gaethje in the 3rd round.
-Alex Oliveira: Carlos Condit is a shell of his former self and towards the end of his career. He’s lost 6 of his last 8 fights. And he faces a quality upper tier gate keeper in Cowboy Oliveira, who’s 7-3 in the UFC. This is an easy fight to pick. Oliveira is 30 years old and I think still has a little bit of ceiling left. I see Oliveira seeing if he can knock Condit out, but if he runs into trouble in the striking, Oliveira will clinch Condit the same way Neil Magny did and I doubt Condit has an answer. Oliveira by decision.
-Israel Adesanya: The UFC is very well aware that they could have a star on their hands with Adesanya, so as such, he’s going to be booked in favorable matchups, similar to how Conor McGregor was treated when he came up. Thing I was most impressed with Adesanya was his take down defense. Yes, the guy’s a world class striker. But that won’t mean diddly if said striker is easily able to be taken down. He’s still got to get better with his wrestling, but Adesanya showed a great foundation to build from. That said, his opponent Marvin Vettori is even less well rounded than Rob Wilkinson, Adesanya’s first opponent. Vettori relies on grappling for his takedowns and is a submission specialist. I see Adesanya using his strength to shake Vettori off, keep him at distance, and knock him out in the 1st round.
-Michelle Waterson: UPSET SPECIAL 1: There might be a #10 ranking next to Cortney Casey’s name, but I’m not buying that she’s an elite fighter at 115 lbs. Her claim to fame is a submission win over Randa Markos, who’s pretty good. But the reason I think it’s a fluke is to look at Casey’s overall body of work in the UFC. She’s 3-4 in the octagon. And she didn’t lose to top competition. Casey even lost to Seo Hee Ham, who the UFC has released. Yes, Waterson is only 2-2 in the UFC, but she’s lost to Tecia Torres and champion Rose Namajunas. Plus the style matchup favors Waterson. I picture Waterson using her veteran experience to outgrapple Casey and somehow get her on the ground where Waterson is going to have a big advantage. I don’t see Waterson getting the submission, due to how tough Casey is, but Waterson will do enough on the ground to cruise to a decision win.
-Antonio Carlos Jr: This matchup between Carlos Jr. and Tim Boetsch shows the UFC is ready to invest and push Carlos Jr. Boetsch is 37 years old, has a bit of a name, and is a perfect opponent to make Carlos Jr. look good. Carlos Jr. is 28 years old, 5-1 in the UFC at 185 lbs. And he’s going to have no problem grabbing a hold of Boestch, taking him down, and submitting him in the 1st round.
-Muslim Salikhov: This fight is pretty simple. Rickey Rainey is a journeyman fighter. 34 years old. 13-4 pro record. No real momentum. He’s getting this shot in the UFC because Salikhov needed a new opponent on 2 weeks notice. Salikhov has the resume and profile of a top prospect. But he got upset by Alex Garcia in his UFC debut. I’m not sure what to think of it. Maybe it was jitters. Maybe Salikhov was too confident. I do question Salikhov’s upside at this point, but however good he is, I’m confident he’s going to be able to beat Rainey, who’s fighting on short notice. Look for Salikhov to bounce back with a 1st round knockout.
-John Moraga: UPSET SPECIAL 2: Close fight. There’s a lot of these on this card haha. Moraga is 7-5 in the UFC. Wilson Reis is 6-4. Both are solid mid tier gate keepers. I think Moraga has sharper tools. 5 finishes in the UFC. Reis only has 2. Both have good wrestlings and great submissions. But Moraga is more well rounded and showed in his last fight against submission specialist Magomed Bibulatov that he knows how to knock opponents out. Moraga and Reis’ wrestling is close to equal. I think Moraga is able to keep this fight on the feet and outstrikes Reis enough to pick up the decision win.
-Brad Tavares: Very similar fighters. Tavares and Krzysztof Jotko are both volume punchers. Not much power. Decent wrestling. Both are close to the same age. Tavares being 30, Jotko 28. But Tavares has more skill in those areas. He’s 11-4 in the UFC. Jotko is 6-3. Tavares loses to guys like Robert Whittaker and Yoel Romero. Jotko loses to guys like Magnus Cedenblad and David Branch. Plus Jotko is coming off 2 losses in a row. And Tavares is surging, coming off 3 wins in a row. I think Tavares out points Jotko for a boring decision win.
-Gilbert Burns: Another matchup between very similar fighters, this time who are submission specialists, although Burns has been rounding out his game lately, as evidenced by his knockout win in his last fight. Dan Moret is a decent prospect. He’s beat quite a few solid prospects before signing with the UFC. But he’s also shown he can be outstruck when he’s not able to get the fight to the ground. 31 years old. I just don’t think Moret is going to be able to take Burns down. I’d say their wrestling is pretty close to equal and with Burns have way more experience on the big stage and against better fighters, I think Burns keeps the fight on the feet and knocks Moret out in the 2nd round.
-Shana Dobson: Really small sample sizes make for difficult fight picks. Lauren Mueller has a 4-0 pro record. Dobson has a 3-1 pro record. Dobson is in her prime at 29 years of age. Mueller a little younger at 26 years old. I’m going to give the edge to Dobson because of the power I saw from her when she knocked out Ariel Beck in her last fight. And the knockout being a big deal because statically, not too many knockouts in the smaller female weight classes. Plus, Dobson also has experience against high level competition in losing to 125 lb champion Nicco Montano and Roxy Modaferri on TUF. The toughest opponent Mueller has fought was Kelly McGill-Velasco, who had a 2-1 pro record. So for these reasons, I’m picking Dobson to win via decision.
-Dhiego Lima: I’ve been watching the UFC since 2002. 16 years. In all my years in following the sport, there’s only 1 fighter who’s ever made a comeback at an older age, in a new weight class, with success. And that’s Randy Couture. Everybody else that’s tried has failed. And I don’t see Yushin Okami succeeding. He’s 36 years old. And now he’s dropping a weight class to 170 lbs. Maybe I believe in the comeback if he was proverbially setting the world on fire, but he wasn’t. The UFC resigned him because they needed a short notice replacement for Ovince St. Preux at 205 lbs. Dhiego Lima is not great either. Currently, I’d put him in the lower tier gatekeeper category. If you count the latest TUF show, Lima has won 5 of the last 7 fights against decent competition. Lost to Jesse Taylor due to being outwrestled. I just don’t think Okami can take Lima down. It’s Okami’s first ever weight cut to 170 lbs. I think the cut on his older body will be rough and he won’t have much cardio or as much strength. I think Lima keeps the fight on the feet and he out points Okami in a decision.
-Arjan Bhullar: Adam Wieczorek is a pretty good prospect. 26 years old, which is young for a heavyweight. Has 2 big knockout wins before signing with the UFC over Zoumana Cisse and Ernesto Papa. But he underwhelmed me in his UFC debut over Anthony Hamilton. I expected more. Wieczorek takes on Bhullar, who’s just a horrible matchup for him. I’m not sure what Bhullar’s upside is. Outside the UFC, he beat up tomato cans. But the one thing I do know about Bhullar is that his wrestling is for real and is world class. So in this fight, Bhullar will work on his striking, will stand up for a bit with Wieczorek, see how it goes. And if he starts getting outstruck, will have no problem taking Wieczorek down. Because of his wrestling being the great equalizer, Bhullar will cruise to a decision win.
-Matthew Lopez: Tought fight to pick. Alejandro Perez is a solid prospect. 5-1 in the UFC, plus 1 draw. Biggest win was a decision win in his last fight against Iuri Alcantara. But there’s question marks with Perez. Like how could he get caught in a submission from Patrick Williams who’s gone 1-2 in the UFC. And how could he fight to a draw with Albert Morales, who’s gone 1-4 in the UFC. For me, there’s just less concerns with Lopez. Yes, Lopez is only 2-2 in the UFC, but his losses have been against perennial contenders Rani Yahya and Rafael Assuncao. Lopez’s 2 wins have been against decent mid tier gate keepers. And his prospect pedigree is better. And if Lopez was able to outstrike a guy like Johnny Eduardo, I think he’ll be able to outstrike Perez to pick up the decision win.
-Luke Sanders: Sometimes in MMA, fighters get lucky. When Patrick Williams submitted Alejandro Perez, I think he got lucky. Williams has a 8-5 pro record and he’s 36 years old. Sanders has a more legit profile. Has decent wins over Terrion Ware and Maximo Blanco. I think Sanders will do enough to outpoint Williams to win by decision.