Lewis vs Teixeira, Thompson vs Bonfim, Kattar vs Garcia Fight Picks – July 12, 2025

Derrick Lewis vs Tallison Teixeira

• Derrick Lewis
• Age: 40
• UFC Record: 19-10
• Key Wins: Knocked out Rodrigo Nascimento, Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Chris Daukaus, Curtis Blaydes, Alexei Oleinik, Shamil Abdurakhimov, Travis Browne, and Alexander Volkov. Beat Francis Ngannou.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

• Tallison Teixeira
• Age: 25
• Pro Record: 8-0
• UFC Record: 2-0
• Key Wins: Knocked Justin Tafa, out a 6-1 striker and a 4-1 striker.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Teixeira by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Teixeira -125

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Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim

• Stephen Thompson
• Age: 42
• UFC Record: 13-8-1
• Key Losses: Knocked out by Anthony Pettis. Majority decision loss to Tyron Woodley.
• Key Draws: Fought Tyron Woodley to a majority draw.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Kevin Holland. Beat Jorge Masvidal, Geoff Neal, and Vicente Luque.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

• Gabriel Bonfim
• Age: 27
• UFC Record: 5-1
• Key Wins: Submitted Khaos Williams, Trevin GIles, Mounir Lazzez, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, a well rounded 6-2-1 fighter and a well rounded 13-3 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 8-0 fighter. Beat Ange Loosa.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Grappling: plus (70)

Looks like Thompson’s striking is finally starting to regress a bit as he only out struck Joaquin Buckley 36 to 28.

Chris’ Pick: Bonfim by 2nd round submission.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Bonfim -200

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Calvin Kattar vs Steve Garcia

• Calvin Kattar
• Age: 37
• UFC Record: 7-7
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Josh Emmett.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Jeremy Stephens, Shane Burgos, Chris Fighgold, and Ricardo Lamas. Beat Giga Chikadze and Dan Ige.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Wrestling: plus (70)

• Steve Garcia
• Age: 33
• UFC Record: 3-0 at 155 lbs. 7-2 overall.
• Key Losses: Submitted by Aalon Cruz. Split decision loss to a 5-0 wrestler.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Kyle Nelson, Seung Woo Choi, Melquizael Costa, Nuerdanbieke Shayilan, Chase Hooper, and a 7-1 grappler. Split decision over a 5-0 grappler.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

I know the market has Garcia graded higher than I do. But I’m not buying into it. Yes, Garcia has looked great. Yes, he’s gotten 5 KO’s in a row. But the last time I’ve seen him fight for longer than a few minutes was against Costa and the numbers say 65 striking and 60 wrestling. Since then, he’s had 2 quick knockouts. After looking at Kattar’s numbers, it’s tempting to write him off and say he’s regressing, as Zalal out struck him 74 to 35. But on the other hand, I’m pretty sure Zalal has 70 grappling and Kattar stuffed all 8 take downs. The one thing Kattar does have going for him though is his durability. He’s never been knocked out in 32 pro fights.

Chris’ Pick: Kattar by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Kattar -225

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Nate Landwehr vs Morgan Charriere

• Nate Landwehr
• Age: 37
• UFC Record: 5-4
• Key Wins: Submitted Austin Lingo and Ludovit Klein. Knocked out Jamall Emmers, a well rounded 6-1 fighter, a 13-2 grappler, and a well rounded 10-1 fighter. Beat Darren Elkins, a 6-2 grappler, a 9-2 grappler, and a 15-3 grappler (twice). Majority decision over David Onama.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: a little above average (55)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

• Morgan Charriere
• Age: 29
• Pro Record: 20-11-1
• UFC Record: 2-2
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Chepe Mariscal.
• Key Draws: Fought a 9-2 grappler to a split draw.
• Key Wins: Submitted William Gomis and a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Knocked out Gabriel Miranda, Maolo Zecchini, and a 17-4 grappler.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)
• Grappling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Charriere by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Charriere -135

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Vitor Petrino vs Austen Lane

• Vitor Petrino
• Age: 27
• UFC Record: 5-2
• Key Wins: Knocked out Modestas Bukauskas, Rodolfo Bellato twice, and Gadzhimurad Antigulov. Submitted Marcin Prachnio. Beat Tyson Pedro and Anton Turkalj.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

• Austen Lane
• Age: 37
• UFC Record: 2-4
• Key Losses: Knocked out by a 7-4 striker.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Juan Adams and a 3-1 striker. Beat Robelis Despagne.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

Mario Pinto closed as a -550 favorite over Lane and the narrative might be that Pinto dominated. But that’s far from what happened up until the KO as Lane actually out struck Pinto 31 to 12. Thus Lane has a very legit 60 striking tool. But. Lane has been knocked out in 3 of his last 4 fights.

Chris’ Pick: Petrino by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Petrino -300

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Junior Tafa vs Tuco Tokkos

• Junior Tafa
• Age: 28
• Pro Record: 6-3
• UFC Record: 2-2
• Key Wins: Knocked out Sean Sharaf, Parker Porter, and a 6-1 striker.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: a little above average (55)

• Tuco Tokkos
• Age: 34
• Pro Record: 10-5
• UFC Record: 0-3
• Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-1 striker and a 9-3 wrestler. Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Tokkos by decision.

Tokkos’ striking is hovering between a 60-65 for me but I am confident his wrestling is a 65 as he had success getting multiple take downs on Navajo Stirling.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Tokkos -225

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Chris Curtis vs Max Griffin

• Chris Curtis
• Age: 37
• UFC Record: 6-4
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Brendan Allen.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Joaquin Buckley, Brendan Allen, Phil Hawes, a well rounded 13-3 fighter. a 10-1 striker, an 8-2 striker and an 18-5 wrestler. Beat Rodolfo Vieira, a 9-3 grappler, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a well rounded 18-4 fighter. Split decision over Marc Andre Barriault. Majority decision win over an 11-4 striker.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

• Max Griffin
• Age: 38
• UFC Record: 8-9
• Key Losses: Lost to Curtis Millender. Lost split decisions to Neil Magny, Alex Oliveira, and Thiago Alves.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Kenan Song. Beat Mike Perry. Split decision wins over Jeremiah Wells and Tim Means.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Curtis by split decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Curtis -125

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Jake Matthews vs Chidi Njokuani

• Jake Matthews
• Age: 30
• UFC Record: 13-6
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Andrew Holbrook.
• Key Wins: Submitted Darrius Flowers. Beat Francisco Prado, Phil Rowe, and Jingliang Li.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Grappling: above average (60)

• Chidi Njokuani
• Age: 36
• UFC Record: 6-3
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Albert Duraev.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, Dustin Todorovic, Marc Andre Barriault, a well rounded 12-1 fighter, an 18-4 wrestler, an 8-0 striker, a well rounded 6-1 fighter and an 8-2 striker. Beat Jared Gordon, a 6-2 wrestler, an 8-2 striker, an 11-3 striker, and a 10-3 grappler. Split decision wins over Rhys McKee and Max Griffin.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

Zaleski dos Santos closed as a -205 favorite to beat Njokuani. Likely because the market thought he’d be able to take Njokuani down. I agreed. But surprisingly, Njokuani stuffed 4 out of 5 take down attempts. And instead of the stand up being close, Njokuani out struck him 36 to 13. So has Njokuani leveled up? I doubt it. Njokuani is 36 years out. 9 fights into his UFC career. But the biggest reason I’m skeptical is Zaleski dos Santos is 38 years old with 16 UFC fights. So most plausible that Zaleski dos Santos has regressed. I had Francisco Prado’s wrestling as a 55 going into his fight with Matthews. Prado only got 1 take down, but the fact he was able to control Matthews in the clinch on the fence makes it hard for me to justify Matthews having 65 grappling.

Chris’ Pick: Matthews by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Matthews -135

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Eduarda Moura vs Lauren Murphy

• Eduarda Moura
• Age: 31
• Pro Record: 11-1
• UFC Record: 3-1
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Denise Gomes.
• Key WIns: Submitted a 5-0 striker. Knocked out Montserrat Conejo and a 6-3 striker. Beat Veronica Hardy.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Grappling: plus (70)

• Lauren Murphy
• Age: 41
• UFC Record: 5-2 at 125 lbs. 6-6 overall.
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sara McMann.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Mara Romero Borella. Beat Miehsa Tate, Joanne Wood, and Roxanne Modafferi. Split decision over Andrea Lee.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: average (50)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

Murphy really regressed in her last fight with Jessica Andrade. Was out struck 208 to 90. She returns here for her first fight in two and a half years, could be her retirement fight.

Chris’ Pick: Moura by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Moura -300

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Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Valter Walker

• Kennedy Nzechukwu
• Age: 32
• UFC Record: 8-5 at 205 lbs.
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Nicolae Negumereanu.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Chris Barnett, Ion Cutelaba, Karl Roberson, Danilo Marques, and Carlos Ulberg. Submitted Devin Clark.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Grappling: plus (70)

• Valter Walker
• Age: 27
• Pro Record: 13-1
• UFC Record: 2-1
• Key Wins: Submitted Don’Tale Mayes and Junior Tafa. Beat a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Split decision over an 8-3 striker.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Nzechukwu by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Nzechukwu -250

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Mike Davis vs Mitch Ramirez

• Mike Davis
• Age: 32
• UFC Record: 4-3
• Key Wins: Submitted Natan Levy. Knocked out a 5-2 striker. Beat Slava Borshchev and Mason Jones.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Grappling: near plus (65)

• Mitch Ramirez
• Age: 32
• Pro Record: 8-2
• UFC Record: 0-2
• Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 striker and an 11-3 grappler.
• Striking: a little above average (55)
• Power: a little above average (55)
• Grappling: a little above average (55)

Chris’ Pick: Davis by 1st round submission.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Davis -500

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Melissa Martinez vs Fatima Kline

• Melissa Martinez
• Age: 27
• Pro Record: 8-1
• UFC Record: 1-1
• Key Wins: Beat Alice Ardelean. Split decision over a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

• Fatima Kline
• Age: 24
• Pro Record: 7-1
• UFC Record: 1-1
• Key Wins: Knocked out Viktoriia Dudakova. Beat a 4-1 striker and a well rounded 6-3-1 fighter.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: plus (70)

Chris’ Pick: Kline by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Kline -250