Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira
- Ilia Topuria
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 8-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Bryce Mitchell, an 8-1 grappler, and a 7-1 wrestler. Knocked out Max Holloway, Alexander Volkanovski, Ryan Hall, Damon Jackson, and a 4-1 grappler. Beat Josh Emmett and Youssef Zalal.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Charles Oliveira
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 23-10
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Armen Tsarukyan.
- Key Wins: Submitted Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, Kevin Lee, Jim Miller, and David Teymur. Knocked out Beneil Dariush, Michael Chandler and Nik Lentz. Beat Michael Chandler and Tony Ferguson.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
Chris’ Pick: Oliveira by 2nd round submission.
Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara France
- Alexandre Pantoja
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 13-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Schnell and Wilson Reis. Submitted Kai Asakura, Alex Perez, Brandon Royval, and Yuta Sasaki. Beat Steve Erceg, Brandon Moreno, and Manel Kape.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Kai Kara France
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 8-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Amir Albazi.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Steve Erceg, Cody Garbrandt, and Rogerio Bontorin. Beat Askar Askarov and Tyson Nam. Split decision over Raulian Paiva.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Kara France by 2nd round knockout.
Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano
- Beneil Dariush
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 16-6-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Alexander Hernandez.
- Key Draws: Fought Evan Dunham to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Anthony Rocco Martin and Drew Dober. Knocked out Scott Holtzman, Drakkar Klose, and James Vick. Beat Mateusz Gamrot and Tony Ferguson. Split decision over Diego Ferreira.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Renato Moicano
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 7-3 at 155 lbs. 11-6 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Brad Riddell, Alexander Hernandez, Jai Herbert, and Cub Swanson. Knocked out Benoit Saint Denis and Jalin Turner. Beat Drew Dober and Calvin Kattar. Split decision over Jeremy Stephens.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
I wasn’t the only one who thought Dariush’s striking had leveled up to a 75 grade as he closed a -150 favorite over Charles Oliveira. Small sample, but after seeing his striking with Oliveira and now Tsarukyan, it’s looking like the numbers from his Gamrot fight are probably an outlier.
Chris’ Pick: Moicano by split decision.
Brandon Royval vs Joshua Van
- Brandon Royval
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Matt Schnell, Kai Kara France, Tim Elliott, Joby Sanchez and a 5-1 striker. Knocked out Matheus Nicolau a 7-1 grappler. Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Split decision wins over Tatsuro Taira, Brandon Moreno, and Rogerio Bontorin.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Joshua Van
- Age: 23
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bruno Silva, Felipe Bunes and a 7-1 wrestler. Beat Rei Tsuruya, Cody Durden, and Kevin Borjas. Split decision over Zhalgas Zhumagulov.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Royval by decision.
Payton Talbott vs Felipe Lima
- Payton Talbott
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Nick Aguirre. Knocked out Yanis Ghemmouri, Cameron Saaiman, and an 8-1 striker. Beat Reyes Cortez Jr.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Felipe Lima
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 14-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Muhammad Naimov, Beat Miles Johns, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, an 8-1-1 wrestler, and a 14-5 grappler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Lima by decision.
Jack Hermansson vs Gregory Rodrigues
- Jack Hermansson
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 11-6
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sean Strickland.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Thales Leites. Submitted Kelvin Gastelum, David Branch, and Gerald Meerschaert. Beat Joe Pyfer, Chris Curtis, Edmen Shahbazyan and Jacare Souza.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Gregory Rodrigues
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Armen Petrosyan.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1-1 grappler. Knocked out Brad Tavares, Dennis Tiuliulin, Chidi Njokuani, Julian Marquez, Jun Yong Park, an 8-3 striker, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, a well rounded 3-0 fighter, and a 4-1 grappler. Beat Christian Leroy Duncan and Dusko Todorovic.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Rodrigues really surprised me in out striking Cannonier 85 to 69. Rodrigues also showed better cardio but lost because Cannonier was more durable and has more power.
Chris’ Pick: Hermansson by decision.
Hyder Amil vs Jose Delgado
- Hyder Amil
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 11-0
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jeong Yeong Lee and Fernie Garcia. Beat a 14-4 striker. Split decision win over a 9-7 grappler. Split decision over William Gomis.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Jose Delgado
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Connor Matthews, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, a well rounded 4-1 fighter, and a 7-2 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Amil has really blown me away with his improvements from where I saw his skills were at before the UFC. And I’m pretty sure his striking is a 70, unless Gomis isn’t as good as I think he is.
Chris’ Pick: Amil by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Amil -250
Tracy Cortez vs Viviane Araujo
- Tracy Cortez
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Beat Jasmine Jasudavicius, Melissa Gatto, Mariya Agapova, and Stephanie Egger. Split decision wins over Justin Kish and a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Viviane Araujo
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 7-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Talita Bernardo. Beat Karine Silva, Jennifer Maia, Andrea Lee, Roxanne Modefferi, Montana de la Rosa, and Alexis Davis.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Cortez by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Cortez -125
Terrance McKinney vs Slava Borshchev
- Terrance McKinney
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brendon Marotte, Mike Breeden, Matt Frevola, and an 11-3 grappler. Submitted Fares Ziam.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Slava Borshchev
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Draws: Fought Nazim Sadykhov to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Maheshate, Dakota Bush, and a 7-0 striker. Beat a 4-1 wrestler. Split decision over James Llontop.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
This is McKinney’s fight to lose as long as he doesn’t gas out.
Chris’ Pick: McKinney by 1st round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: McKinney -225
Chris Ewert vs Jackson McVey
- Chris Ewert
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 7-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-2 striker. Beat a well rounded 3-0 fighter and a 4-0 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Jackson McVey
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
McVey doesn’t have a lot of cage time. Only 2 of McVey’s wins have gone past a minute. All 6 wins via 1st round finish. From the little I’ve seen, the striking looks like a 65. His size for the weight class really stands out. It’s possible Ewert’s striking could be a 60. I watched his last fight, he put on a good pace.
Chris’ Pick: McVey by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: McVey -300
Jhonata Diniz vs Alvin Hines
- Jhonata Diniz
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Austen Lane and a 7-1 striker. Beat Karl Williams.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Alvin Hines
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 7-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Diniz by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Diniz -250
Jacobe Smith vs Niko Price
- Jacobe Smith
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 10-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Preston Parsons and a 10-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Niko Price
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 8-8
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alan Jouban, Randy Brown, and Tim Means. Beat Alex Morono.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Smith by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Smith -300