Jamahal Hill vs Khalil Rountree Jr
- Jamahal Hill
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Johnny Walker, Jimmy Crute, and Ovince St Preux. Beat Glover Teixeira, Thiago Santos, and Darko Stosic.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Khalil Rountree Jr
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 10-7
- Key Losses: Submitted by Tyson Pedro.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Anthony Smith, Chris Daukaus, Karl Roberson, Modestas Bukauskas, Paul Craig, and Gokhan Saki. Beat Eryk Anders. Split decision over Dustin Jacoby.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
I’ve had Hill’s striking as a 75 tool for awhile now. But it seems he’s regressing. I know for certain Prochazka’s striking is just a 70 and he out struck 71 to 68. Hill has now been knocked out in both of his last fights. Alex Pereira knocked out Rountree Jr in the 4th round of their fight, but going into the 4th round, Pereira was only out striking Rountree Jr 63 to 46. Based on the numbers, I think Rountree Jr’s striking is probably on the lower tier of a 75 grade. But I could be wrong on that. The tool is right on the bubble between a 75 and a 70. And we didn’t see Rountree Jr’s wrestling, but I’m projecting that the tool has improved to a 70.
Chris’ Pick: Rountree Jr by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Rountree Jr -250
Rafael Fiziev vs Ignacio Bahamondes
- Rafael Fiziev
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Justin Gaethje.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Rafael dos Anjos, Brad Riddell, and Renato Moicano. Beat Bobby Green and Marc Diakiese.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Ignacio Bahamondes
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to John Makdessi.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jalin Turner and Zhu Rong. Knocked out Manuel Torres, Cristos Giagos, Roosevelt Roberts, and a 6-1 striker. Beat Trey Ogden and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Split decision over a well rounded 5-2 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus: (70)
- Wrestling: grappling (65)
Chris’ Pick: Fiziev by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Fiziev -135
Curtis Blaydes vs Rizvan Kuniev
- Curtis Blaydes
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 13-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jailton Almeida, Alexey Oleinik, Alistair Overeem, Shamil Abdurakhimov, and Junior dos Santos. Beat Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Alexander Volkov, Mark Hunt, and Justin Willis.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Rizvan Kuniev
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 12-2-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-1 fighter, a 12-2 striker, a 5-0 wrestler and an 11-4 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Blaydes by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Blaydes -325
Myktybek Orolbai vs Tofiq Musayev
- Myktybek Orolbai
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 13-2-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Mateusz Rebecki.
- Key Wins: Submitted Uros Medic. Knocked out a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Beat Elves Brener, a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Tofiq Musayev
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 22-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 16-4 grappler, a 12-4 striker, a 18-1-1 grappler, a well rounded 11-3 fighter, and a well rounded 10-2 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Orolbai by 2nd round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Orolbai -250
Nazim Sadykhov vs Nikolas Motta
- Nazim Sadykhov
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Terrence McKinney. Knocked out Ismael Bonfim and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Nikolas Motta
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tom Nolan, Cameron VanCamp, Joe Solecki, and a 6-1 wrestler. Beat Maheshate, a 9-1 striker, and a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Sadykhov by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Sadykhov -350
Muhammad Naimov vs Bogdan Grad
- Muhammad Naimov
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jamie Mullarkey and a 4-1 striker. Beat Kaan Ofli and Nathaniel Wood. Split decision win over a 2-0-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Bogdan Grad
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 15-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Lucas Alexander and a 4-0 grappler. Submitted a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat a well rounded 17-6 fighter. Split decision over a 9-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Naimov by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Naimov -225
Oban Elliott vs Seok Hyun Ko
- Oban Elliott
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 12-2
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bassil Hafez. Beat Preston Parsons, Valentine Woodburn and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Majority decision over a 17-4 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Seok Hyun Ko
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Beat a 9-0 striker and well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Ko ended up being a lot better than I thought he was when he made his debut on the Contender. But then again, his opponent Igor Cavalcanti, who closed as a -485 favorite, did gas out. But then again, striking in the 1st round with Cavalcanti was close to equal, so not a lot of data for me to go off on but where I have Ko graded I think is most plausible.
Chris’ Pick: Elliott by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Elliott -125
Jun Yong Park vs Ismail Naurdiev
- Jun Yong Park
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 8-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Andre Muniz.
- Key Wins: Submitted Albert Duraev, Dennis Tiuliulin, and Joseph Holmes. Beat Marc-Andre Barriault and a 18-6 striker. Majority decision over Tafon Nchukwi. Split decision wins over Brad Tavares and Eryk Anders.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Ismail Naurdiev
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 23-7
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Beat Siyar Bahadurzada and Michel Prazeres.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Park by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Park -400
Melissa Mullins vs Darya Zheleznyakova
- Melissa Mullins
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Klaudia Sygula, a 7-0 striker. Beat Irina Alekseeva and a 3-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Dariya Zheleznyakova
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-0 striker and a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat Montserrat Rendon.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Mullins by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Mullins -135
Irina Alekseeva vs Klaudia Sygula
- Irina Alekseeva
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 5-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Lost to a well rounded 8-6 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted Stephanie Egger. Beat a 5-2 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Klaudia Sygula
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 6-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 3-0 fighter and a 5-2 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Sygula by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Sygula -125
Tagir Ulanbekov vs Azat Maksum
- Tagir Ulanbekov
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Cody Durden, Nathan Maness, a 15-2 wrestler and a 13-2 grappler. Knocked out a 4-0 grappler. Beat Clayton Carpenter, Bruno Silva, an 8-1 grappler, and a 9-2 wrestler. Split decision over Allan Nascimento.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Azat Maksum
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 17-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 8-0 striker, a well rounded 4-0 fighter and a 5-0 grappler. Knocked out a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a 12-3 striker. Beat a 5-1 grappler. Split decision over Tyson Nam.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Ulanbekov by 2nd round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ulanbekov -200
Hamdy Abdelwahab vs Mohammed Usman
- Hamdy Abdelwahab
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Split decision over Jamal Pogues.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Mohammed Usman
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Zac Pauga and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Submitted a 4-1 striker. Beat Jake Collier, Junior Tafa, and a 5-2 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
Chris’ Pick: Abdelwahab by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Abdelwahab -175