Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier 3
- Max Holloway
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 1-1 at 155 lbs. 22-7 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Alexander Volkanovski.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Justin Gaethje, The Korean Zombie, Brian Ortega, Jose Aldo (twice), Anthony Pettis, and Charles Oliveira. Beat Arnold Allen, Yair Rodriguez, Frankie Edgar, Jeremy Stephens and Ricardo Lamas.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Dustin Poirier
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 22-8
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Michael Johnson.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Benoit St Denis, Connor McGregor (twice), Justin Gaethje, and Eddie Alvarez. Submitted Michael Chandler and Anthony Pettis. Beat Max Holloway and Dan Hooker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Holloway by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Holloway -200
Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov
- Paulo Costa
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Uriah Hall and Johny Hendricks. Beat Luke Rockhold. Split decision over Yoel Romero.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Roman Kopylov
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Chris Curtis, Josh Fremd, Claudio Ribeiro, Punahele Soriano, Alessio di Chirico, out a 7-1 striker in just his 2nd pro fight. Also knocked out a well rounded 8-2 fighter in his 3rd pro fight. Knocked out a 6-2 wrestler and a 9-2 wrestler. Split decision over Cesar Almeida.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Costa by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Costa -250
Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez
- Kevin Holland
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-3 at 170 lbs. 15-9 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jack Della Maddalena.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Oliveira, Jacare Souza, Joaquin Buckley and Anthony Hernandez. Submitted Vicente Luque, Michal Oleksiejczuk, Michael Chiesa and Tim Means. Beat Gunnar Nelson and Alessio Di Chirico. Split decisions over Gerald Meerschaert and Darren Stewart.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Daniel Rodriguez
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 9-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Tim Means and a 7-2 grappler. Knocked out Santiago Ponzinibbio, Dwight Grant, a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Beat Kevin Lee, Mike Perry and a 7-2 striker. Split decision over Alex Morno and Jingliang Li.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Holland by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Holland -300
Dan Ige vs Patricio Pitbull
- Dan Ige
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 12-8
- Key Wins: Knocked out Sean Woodson, Andre Fili, Damon Jackson, and Gavin Tucker. Knocked down Danny Henry and submitted him. Beat Nate Landwehr and Kevin Aguilar. Split decision wins over Mirsad Bektic and Edson Barboza.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Patricio Pitbull
- Age: 37
- Pro Record: 36-7
- Key Wins: Knocked out Michael Chandler, Jeremy Kennedy, Diego Nunes, and Justin Wilcox. Submitted Emmanuel Sanchez and Daniel Straus. Beat Juan Archuleta and Pat Curran.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Pitbull by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Pitbull -125
Daniel Zellhuber vs Michael Johnson
- Daniel Zellhuber
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Esteban Ribovics.
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 11-3 striker, a well rounded 4-1 fighter, and a 4-0 striker. Submitted Cristos Giagos. Beat Francisco Prado, Lando Vannata, Lucas Almeida, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Michael Johnson
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 13-13 at 155 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jamie Mullarkey.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ottman Azaitar, Alan Patrick and Dustin Poirier. Beat Darius Flowers, Marc Diakiese, and Edson Barboza.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Market thought Zellhuber’s striking was a 70 heading into his last fight with Ribovics. But Ribovics out struck him 154 to 117, making me confident Zellhuber’s striking tool is just a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Johnson by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Johnson -125
Vinicius Oliveira vs Kyler Phillips
- Vinicius Oliveira
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 21-3
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bernardo Sopai, a well rounded 15-4 fighter, a 12-3 grappler and a 12-2 wrestler. Beat Said Nurmagoedov, Ricky Simon, a well rounded 12-3 fighter, and a 13-1 wrestler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Kyler Phillips
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Raulian Paiva.
- Key Wins: Submitted Marcelo Rojo. Knocked out a 4-1 grappler. Beat Pedro Munhoz, Roani Barcelos, Yadong Song, and an 8-1 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Phillips striking is right on the bubble between a 65 and 70. The tool was closer to a 70 in the Munhoz win but more like a 65 in the loss to Rob Font. I’ll keep it as a 70 for now as I think it’s somewhat likely Font still had 75 striking in that fight.
Chris’ Pick: Oliveira by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Oliveira -200
Marvin Vettori vs Brendan Allen
- Marvin Vettori
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 8-6-1
- Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Israel Adesanya.
- Key Draws: Fought Omari Akhmedov to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Karl Roberson. Beat Kevin Holland, Jack Hermansson, Cezar Ferreira, and Andrew Sanchez.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Brendan Allen
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 12-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tom Breese. Submitted Paul Craig, Bruno Silva, Andre Muniz, Krzysztof Jotko, Sam Alvey, Kevin Holland, a 9-1 striker, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, and a 6-1 striker. Beat Jacob Malkoun, Punahele Soriano, and an 8-1 striker. Split decision over Chris Curtis.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Roman Dolidze probably improved his striking to a 70. But at the same time, he out struck Vettori 137 to 110 so the numbers also make you wonder if Vettori, with 15 UFC fights under his belt, is starting to regress. But on the other hand, Vettori is still only 31 years old.
Chris’ Pick: Vettori by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Vettori -225
Francisco Prado vs Nikolay Veretennikov
- Francisco Prado
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 12-3
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ottman Azaitar, a well rounded 6-2 fighter, a 9-3 striker, and a 5-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Nikolay Veretennikov
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 12-6
- UFC Record: 0-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Anthony Ivy and a 5-2 grappler. Beat an 8-1 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Prado by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Prado -125
Ateba Gautier vs Robert Valentin
- Ateba Gautier
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Robert Valentin
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 10-5
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Torrez Finney.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-1 striker, a 10-3 wrestler, and an 11-3 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
I’m pretty sure Torrez Finney doesn’t have 70 wrestling. Thus, Valentin’s grappling wasn’t as good as I thought and thus, I could even be over rating his striking a tad.
Chris’ Pick: Gautier by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gautier -300
Islam Dulatov vs Adam Fugitt
- Islam Dulatov
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 11-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 16-6 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Adam Fugitt
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 10-4
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Yusaku Kinoshita, an 8-2 wrestler, and a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Split decision over Josh Quinlan.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Fugitt by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Fugitt -125
Jimmy Crute vs Marcin Prachnio
- Jimmy Crute
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-4-2
- Key Draws: Fought Rodolfo Bellato and Alonzo Menifield to majority draws.
- Key Wins: Submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk and Paul Craig. Knocked out Modestas Bukauskas and Sam Alvey.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Marcin Prachnio
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 4-6
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ike Villanueva. Beat Devin Clark, William Knight, and Khalil Rountree.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Modestas Bukauskas recently showed improved 65 striking in his last fight with Ion Cutelaba. But his fight before that with Prachnio, I know 100% for sure his striking was at least a 60. And Prachnio out struck 58 to 29. So Prachnio’s 65 striking tool is very legit.
Chris’ Pick: Crute by 1st round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Crute -250
Ryan Spann vs Lukasz Brzeski
- Ryan Spann
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 9-6
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dominick Reyes, Misha Cirkunov, and Lil’ Nog. Submitted Ovince St Preux, Ion Cutelaba, and Devin Clark. Split decision over Sam Alvey.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Lukasz Brzeski
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 1-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Martin Buday.
- Key Draws: Fought an 18-10 striker to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Beat Valter Walker and a 20-5 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Despite the 1-5 UFC record, Brzeski’s striking is indeed a legit 65 tool as he out struck Kennedy Nzechukwu 32 to 26. But Brzeski has been knocked out in 3 of his last 4 fights.
Chris’ Pick: Spann by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Spann -175
Jackson McVey vs Brunno Ferreira
- Jackson McVey
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Brunno Ferreira
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Armen Petrosyan and a 3-1 striker. Knocked out Dustin Stoltzfus, Phil Hawes, Gregory Rodrigues, a well rounded 10-1 fighter, and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
McVey doesn’t have a lot of cage time. Only 2 of McVey’s wins have gone past a minute. All 6 wins via 1st round finish. From the little I’ve seen, the striking looks like a 65. His size for the weight class really stands out.
Chris’ Pick: Ferreira by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ferreira -135
Carli Judice vs Nicolle Caliari
- Carli Judice
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 4-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Gabriella Fernandes and Ernesta Kareckaite.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Yuneisey Duben.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Nicolle Caliari
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Ernesta Kareeckaite.
- Key Wins: Submitted Corinne Laframboise, a well rounded 8-2 fighter and a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Judice by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Judice -135