Holloway vs Ortega, Jedrzejczyk vs Shevchenko, Manuwa vs Santos Fight Picks

-Brian Ortega: Really looking forward to this fight. This is top 3 for me in 2018. Such an interesting fight. And yes, there is a pathway for Max Holloway to win. His biggest chance is going to be using his pace and cardio to tire Ortega out. Ortega can be out struck. He was out struck by Renato Moicano and Cub Swanson. It’s possible the pace could be more than Ortega can handle and he wilts in later rounds. Ortega has never gone 5 rounds before. But I see more reasons for Ortega winning. First, Holloway is coming off a long layoff due to mysterious health issues. He’s going to have to overcome that. Then, there’s the fact that Ortega’s striking is getting better every fight. Last fight, Ortega actually out struck Frankie Edgar and knocked him out in the 1st round. And here’s the craziest part. Ortega has 14 wins and 3 career knockouts. But all 3 of those knockouts came in the UFC. Which means when the UFC signed Ortega, I thought he was a okay prospect, submission specialist. 8-0. 4 submission wins. 4 decisions. But he’s really broken out big time since being in the UFC. 27 years old. 14-0 pro record now. Holloway is faster and more technical. But Ortega has more power. But what’s most likely to happen is Ortega grabbing a hold of Holloway, taking him to the ground and submitting him. I’ll call 2nd round.

-Valentina Shevchenko: On paper, this might seem like a really close fight. Two elite strikers. Former champion vs top contender. But Shevchenko actually has a ton of advantages. First, confidence is such a huge factor in MMA. And in life in general. Not only did Joanna Jedrzejczyk lose to new champion Rose Namajunas twice, Joanna also lost to Shevchenko in muay thai matches. And I just don’t see any advantages for Joanna. Normally she has the cardio advantage, but Shevchenko has fought 5 rounds twice in her last 4 fights. Shevchenko has better grappling. Better submissions. And she also had two razor close decision losses to current unbeatable champion Amanda Nunes in a higher weight class. I think the fight plays out on the feet. I think Shevchenko has more power than Joanna. But Shevchenko having more confidence will be the difference in Shevchenko winning by decision and becoming the new 125 lb champion.

-Thiago Santos: Anthony Smith is really on the rise. Smith is coming off a submission win over top contender Volkan Oezdemir. Know who last beat Smith? Santos. And it wasn’t a long time ago either. Santos knocked Smith out just 10 months ago. Santos and Smith have both looked way better at 205 lbs and the same success Smith has had over the elite at light heavyweight, I think the same will happen for Santos. Jimi Manuwa is on the decline. He’s lost 3 of his last 5 fights. And 2 of the 3 were him being knocked out. He’s 38 years old and I think his chin is giving out. This fight is all Santos. Changing of the guard. 1st round knockout.

-Alex Oliveira: UPSET SPECIAL 1: I really like Gunnar Nelson. But if you’re going to become champion in the UFC with elite submission skills, you also need to have elite take downs. And Nelson really hasn’t improved the take down part of his game. Yes, 3 of Oliveira’s 5 losses have come from submissions. But Oliveira’s take down defense has become plus. And he showed that off in his fight against top wrestler Ryan LaFlare when he upset him. In this fight, Nelson will try to clinch, try to grapple. Oliveira will shake him off, keep the fight on the feet, and will knock Nelson out in the 1st round.

-Kyle Bochniak: UPSET SPECIAL 2: Bochniak won’t become a contender in the UFC, but he does have the upside of a lower tier gate keeper, despite his 2-3 record in the UFC so for. He’s got plus wrestling. Average striking. Average submissions. And he’s got plus durability. Matter of fact, Zabit Magomedsharipov has fought 4 times in the UFC and finished 3 of his 4 opponents. Only one he couldn’t finish was Bochniak. And that doesn’t bode well for his opponent Hakeem Dawodu. Dawodu is 1-1 in the UFC. Has plus striking, but below average tools everywhere else. I see Bochniak doing what Bochniak does which is clinch. Push against the fence. Mix in some takedowns. And he’ll do this all fight to win by decision.

-Claudia Gadelha: Nina Ansaroff has been getting better. Most of all her take down defense. Like, I was surprised when she stuffed Randa Markos’ take downs in her last fight. But I think Gadelha’s grappling skills are on another level than Markos’. Ansaroff’s tools to win are in her stand up. Put her on the ground and she really has no path to winning. I do see Gadelha taking her down and she’s going to do enough there to win by decision.

-Katlyn Chookagian: Chookagian is marching towards at title shot at 125 lbs and I don’t see any path for Jessica Eye to stop her. Eye is mainly a striker. Volume puncher. Fast, technical. She’s a quality mid tier gate keeper. But Chookagian’s striking tools are way better. She’s more technical. And she’s also more rounded. If you look at Chookagian’s amateur career, you’ll see she has an additional 4 submission wins. All by arm bar. I see Chookagian winning this fight however she wants. She can out point Eye standing up. But if she wants to get a finish to really cement her title shot, it might be best to take Eye down for the submission. And I think she does that. 2nd round submission for Chookagian.

-Elias Theodorou: Theodorou has turned into a pretty solid mid tier gate keeper. 7-2 UFC record. But I don’t see him as a contender because he’s too one dimensional, doesn’t have any elite tools, and at 30 years old, I don’t see him developing too much more. He is what he is. Out of his 7 UFC wins, against mid tier competition, he’s only finished 2 fights. Stylistically, this fight is a horrible matchup for a promising prospect in Eryk Anders. Anders has plus power. Average striking. But he’s pretty green when it comes to wrestling. I see Theodorou exposing this and testing Anders in a way he hasn’t been tested yet. It’s going to be too much, Theodorou will get take downs, and will win by decision.

-Gilbert Burns: Interesting fight between Burns and Oliver Aubin-Mercier. It’s pretty likely that Burns grappling and OAM’s wrestling cancel each other out here and the fight will be determined by the stand up. And to me, Burns’ striking has been more fluid, faster and I think he has more power than OAM. I’ll go with Burns by 2nd round knockout.

-Aleksandar Rakic: Rakic looks like a probable title contender. 26 years old. 2-0 in the UFC so far. Main thing he has going for him is plus striking and plus take down defense. Only thing I’d want to see him improve is being able to tap into his power more. Devin Clark is primarily a wrestler and will test Rakic’s take down defense. But I think Justin Ledet has way better take downs and is bigger than Clark. So if Ledet couldn’t take Rakic down, I don’t see Clark being able to. And with Rakic being one of the younger and more developing light heavyweights in the division, I think Rakic takes the next step and knocks Clark out in the 2nd round.

-Brad Katona: I don’t see anyway Matthew Lopez wins this fight. He’s well rounded. Has average tools everywhere, but no real standout skills. He’ll beat fighters by exposing holes in his opponents. But Katona has plus plus grappling. And Lopez won’t be able to overcome that. Katona will take Lopez down and will submit him in the 2nd round.

-Chad Laprise: This is called a bounce back fight. For Laprise. The UFC sees value in him and coming off his first loss at 170 lbs, he’s matched up with Dhiego Lima, who’s in his 2nd UFC tour with a 1-6 UFC record (although, he’s 6-0 on the Ultimate Fighter). Lima is well rounded, but he’s not going to have the grappling to take Laprise down. Fight plays out on the feet and Laprise is going to knock him out in the 1st round.

-Diego Ferreira: Ferreira really broke out in his last fight, knocking out top prospect Jared Gordon. And that was Ferreira’s 2nd career knockout. Ferreira is known for his plus grappling and submissions, but if he can make big improvements to his striking, he could be a dark horse contender in the division. Kyle Nelson steps in on a few days notice in place of John Makdessi and Jesse Ronson. Nelson is a decent prospect. Decently well rounded. But it seems like opponents who can take him down and out grapple him have given him the most problems. He lost to a wrestler who was able to take him down and barely beat Jonathan Brookins due to being out grappled. That type of fighter Nelson has problems with, that’s pretty much what Ferreira does best. Add in that Nelson is taking this fight on a few days and that’s all you need to know that this fight will be over quick. 1st round submission for Ferreira.

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