-Jon Jones: Thiago Santos has been on a roll and fighting a lot. He’s fought 12 times in the last 3 years. 35 years old. He’s known for his plus plus power, but I’d grade his striking technique as being only above average. The problem with Santos’ striking is on the defensive side. As in, Santos can get hit when trading and can get knocked out. In the past 3 years, Santos was knocked out by Gegard Mousasi and surprisingly, David Branch. Santos also got rocked a few times in the Jimi Manuwa fight. I think Jones has the best striking defense in the division. Will avoid the big power shots. And could knock Santos out by maybe the 2nd round. I also think Jones could take Santos down if he wants to and could submit Santos. I don’t think this is a competitive fight and Jones will win in whichever way he wants.
-Holly Holm: UPSET SPECIAL 1: Holm getting this fight has more to do with how there aren’t any ready contenders at 135 lbs versus Holm being on a roll. Holm is 37 years old. 5-4 in the UFC. She lost 3 in a row including losing the title to Miesha Tate. Since then, she’s won the last 2 out of 3 beating Bethe Correira and Megan Anderson, then losing a close fight to Cris Cyborg. Nunes is in her prime at 31 years old. And this fight with Holm is sort of a step down for her from the size of the Cyborg fight. Nunes has plus plus striking and power. Her cardio is plus. She went 5 full rounds with Valentina Shevchenko, so I don’t think Holm would have a cardio edge. But the thing that intrigues me a little with Holm is that when she went on that 3 fight losing streak, she had some big personal problems, going through a divorce. It’s very possible that played a big role in her not fighting up to her abilities. Nunes should beat Holm. But I think it’s way closer than most people think and with Holm being such a live underdog at +350, I’m going to roll the dice and say Holm stays on the bike, circles around and using range to out strike Nunes and win by a close decision.
-Jorge Masvidal: UPSET SPECIAL 2: Masvidal has been sneakily one of the more under rated fighters in the UFC. 10-6 UFC record. Lost split decisions to Ben Henderson and Al Iaquinta back in 2015. But he’s really come into his prime in the last few years. He’s won 4 of his last 6 fights. Lost a close split decision to Demian Maia and lost a close decision to Stephen Thompson. But also has knocked out Donald Cerrone and Darren Till. That Till knockout especially speaks to how Masvidal could be breaking out, despite being 34 years old. Masvidal has plus wrestling, near plus striking, but the big development for Masvidal has been the move back up to 170 lbs where he’s figured out how to tap into his power more. Ben Askren is very good. Undefeated. 19-0. Also 34 years old. Submitted Robbie Lawler in the 1st round in his UFC debut. Askren’s wrestling is at least plus, but I’m not ready to grade it as plus plus due to the lack of competition he’s faced. And the problem for Askren in this fight is based what I saw in Askren’s fight with Lawler, is that Askren’s striking is well below average. Like he was super close to getting knocked out against Lawler. And Lawler is passed his prime. I just don’t see Askren being able to escape from Masvidal the same way he escaped from Lawler. Masvidal’s wrestling I think is good enough to either keep the fight on the feet or enable him to get back up. Either way, there’ll be striking exchanges and Askren is going to be too out of his element. I’m picking Masvidal to knockout Askren in the 1st round.
-Luke Rockhold: There’s a very good chance that Rockhold’s chin gave out on him twice in his past 3 fights due to having such a rough weight cut. I think the move up to 205 lbs is going to make him a monster. 34 years old. Plus plus wrestling. Plus submissions. Plus striking. The only pathway to beating him has been to knock him out. Jan Blachowicz poses no threat like that. Blachowicz is 36 years old. 6-5 in the UFC, but he’s won 4 out of his last 5 fights because he’s gone back to sticking with his wrestling and submission game. Has plus wrestling. Plus submissions. Problem for him in this fight is that Rockhold is the same guy that outwrestled Chris Wideman. Rockhold is going to do the same thing to Blachowicz. Put Blachowicz on his back and ground pound for the TKO win in the 1st round.
-Michael Chiesa: I’m a fan of Diego Sanchez, but I’m not sure what Chiesa has to prove in this fight. Chiesa is 31 years old and I think the move to 170 lbs is going to be very good for him. He’s 8-4 in the UFC. Has plus grappling with average striking. At this point in Sanchez’s career, he wins and loses with his above average wrestling. Chiesa will out grapple Sanchez, take him down, and submit him in the 1st round.
-Arnold Allen: It’s tempting to say Gilbert Melendez is past his prime. He’s 37 years old. Hasn’t fought in 2 years. And has lost 5 out of his last 6 fights. But the losses were against Ben Henderson, Anthony Pettis, Eddie Alvarez, Edson Barboza, and Jeremy Stephens. So I think that Melendez losing has more to do with just facing elite competition. As of now, I think Melendez can use his plus striking to be a middle tier gate keeper. Which is a solid test for Allen, who’s 25 years old. 14-1 pro record, 5-0 UFC record. He’s got plus striking, average power, and above average grappling. So he’s well rounded. For him to be a title contender, he needs to figure out how to develop more power in his hands, but in this fight, he’ll be a lot faster than Melendez, will have better cardio, and that’s going to carry him to outpointing Melendez for a decision win.
-Marlon Vera: Nohelin Hernandez steps in on 1 week’s notice to take on Vera. 25 years old. 9-2 pro record. There’s some buzz for him as being a top prospect, but I don’t see it. I grade him as having average striking and that’s about it. Vera has been gradually getting better over time. 7-4 UFC record. Only 26 years old. Has above average grappling, but where he’s gotten interesting is the steps he’s taken in improving his striking. He came into the UFC with 1 career knockout. He’s got 4 knockouts total and 2 of his 3 last wins came by knockout. I’d grade Vera’s striking at being close to plus. Dare I say his striking might be ahead of his grappling. But in this fight, it makes sense for Vera to go back to his grappling here. Hernandez will probably be really aggressive the 1st round knowing he doesn’t have much cardio. Vera will take him down and submit Hernandez in the 1st round.
-Claudia Gadelha: Randa Markos is a decent lower tier gate keeper. Her above average wrestling carries her and she beats opponents that lack take down defense. She’s got 5 wins, 5 losses and 1 draw in the UFC. 33 years old. But this fight is about being a bounce back for Gadelha, who’s still a top 5 fighter in the division. 5-4 in the UFC, but she’s only lost to champions Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Jessica Andrade and contender Nina Ansaroff. Gadelha has plus grappling and above average striking. Gadelha will be able to keep this fight on the feet and will easily be able to out strike Markos to win via decision.
-Edmen Shahbazyan: UFC is doing a good job in bringing Shahbazyan along slowly, being that he’s only 21 years old. Jack Marshman is another good, slow step for Shahbazyan on the path to becoming a contender. Marshman is 3-3 in the UFC. 29 years old. Is coming off a lackluster split decision win over journeyman John Phillips. Marshman’s best tool is his striking which I’d grade as average. Shahbazyan has a 3-0 UFC record. Has plus striking, above average power. And I think both of those tools will continue to develop. Shahbazyan is going to need to become more well rounded because as of now he’s mainly a striker, but that’s no problem in this fight. I think Shahbazyan will take his time. Will be much faster and will cruise to a decision win.
-Alejandro Perez: UPSET SPECIAL 3: This is going to be a very hard fight for Song Yadong to win. Yadong has the upside of being a contender. 21 years old. 3-0 in the UFC. Has above average striking and average grappling. He was able to finish his first 2 opponents who aren’t that good. But when facing a more durable fighter like Vince Morales, Yadong struggled and barely pulled out the decision win. The problem for Yadong here is that Perez is even more durable and has way better cardio. Perez is 29 years old. Quietly has compiled a 7-2 UFC record. Has plus striking with below average power. He’s a volume puncher. Also has plus wrestling. I see Perez frustrating Yadong as the fight goes on and see Perez coming on strong in the 2nd half of the fight. Perez by decision.
-Ismail Naurdiev: When Naurdiev made his UFC debut this past February, I had heard some buzz on him, but wasn’t anywhere close to picking him to beat Michel Prazeres. Naurdiev took the fight on short notice. And Prazeres was, is, a very under rated upper tier gate keeper. Going into that fight, Prazeres’ plus wrestling carried him to a 10-2 UFC record. And amazingly, Naurdiev stuffed the take downs. I couldn’t believe it! On the feet, Prazeres has competent, average striking, but Naurdiev’s striking is an easy plus and Naurdiev cruised to a decision win. And Naurdiev is only 22 years old. I haven’t been this impressed since seeing Israel Adesanya make his UFC debut. Like I said, Naurdiev’s striking is plus, will probably develop into a plus plus tool. Not sure where his power is. Almost all Naurdiev’s 17 wins outside the UFC were over tomato cans, but with 11 knockouts, I’d grade the power of being at least average, to go along with average grappling and plus wrestling. Chance Rencountre is pretty good himself. 1-1 in the UFC so far. Got outwrestled by Belal Muhammed in his short notice UFC debut. Bounced back to submit Kyle Stewart in the 1st round. 32 years old. pretty well rounded. Above average striking and power. Average grappling. He’s got the ceiling of a mid tier gate keeper but doesn’t have any elite tools. Rencountre is going to be outclassed by Naurdiev. Because of Naurdiev’s wrestling, this will be a stand up fight where Naurdiev easily outstrikes Rencountre to win by decision.
-Julia Avila: It’s not everyday that the UFC brings in a new fighter that has a win over a former UFC champion. But that’s the case with Avila who has a 2017 win over Nicco Montano. Avila is in her prime at 31 years old. 5-1 pro record. Avila also has a win over UFC fighter Marion Reneau and her only loss was a fight getting stopped due to a finger injury. I’d grade Avila as having plus striking. Above average power. Average grappling. Obviously an elite prospect. Her opponent is Pannie Kianzad who’s taking the fight on less than 2 weeks notice. The UFC thought so little of her that after she lost in the TUF finals to Macy Chiasson, they released her. Kianzad is 27 years old. 11-4 pro record. Her best tool is her wrestling that I’d grade as above average and she pairs it with average striking. I’m pretty confident that if Avila could handle Montano’s and Reneau’s wrestling, she’ll be able to handle Kianzad’s. Kianzad will fail to get take downs and will be knocked out in the 2nd round.