
-Jacare Souza: There’s a big difference between Jacare vs Chris Weidman and Luke Rockhold. Weidman and Rockhold look like their careers are done because they keep getting knocked out. But Jacare hasn’t been losing like that. 39 years old. 9-4 UFC record at 185 lbs. This will be his 205 lb debut. He only lost to the top 5 in the division. Yoel Romero. Robert Whittaker, Kelvin Gastelum (and I thought Jacare won that fight), and Jack Hermansson. But 3 of the 4 losses were decision losses. He was only knocked out by Robert Whittaker. Meanwhile, out of Jacare’s 9 wins, 8 of them were finishes. Most impressively is that 3 of his last 4 wins came by knockout, so he’s been improving. Jacare’s grappling is still plus and his striking has improved to where I’d grade that plus as well. Jan Blachowicz is 36 years old. 7-5 UFC record. He’s the rare guy that started his UFC career 2-4, but has now won 5 of his last 6 fights. The only loss was from getting knocked out by Thiago Santos. The wins were decent but not over elite guys. Jared Cannonier, at 205 lbs, before Cannonier broke out at 185 lbs. Jimi Manuwa, who was never the same after Volkan Oezdemir knocked him out in 42 seconds. Manuwa’s career ended losing 4 in a row. Luke Rockhold, and his career has looked to be done. Probably the biggest of Blachowicz’s wins was over Nikita Krylov who Blachowicz out grappled and submitted him. Blachowicz has grappling that is near plus and his striking has improved to be above average, paired with average power. I really like Jacare in this fight. I feel he’s beat better opponents. No way Blachowicz is able to get the fight on the ground. This will be a stand up fight. Jacare will have a big advantage. I’m picking Jacare by 2nd round knockout.
-Shogun Rua: My knee jerk reaction when see this fight announced was to pick Paul Craig. Shogun Rua is 37 years. And you’d think his career is winding down. But in actuality, even though he hasn’t been active and fighting about once a year, he’s won 4 of his last 5 fights. He got knocked out by Anthony Smith, but also Corey Anderson, Lil Nog, and knocked out Tyson Pedro. Shogun’s ability to withstand the wrestling of Anderson and grappling of Pedro lead me to grade him with above average wrestling. And his striking is still above average. Paul Craig is 31 years old. 4-4 UFC record, He’s famous for 2 of his wins being submission wins that happened with less than 1 minute left in the fight. 1 of those happened with 1 second left in the fight. Craig’s grappling is plus, but his wrestling and take down ability is closer to average. Not being skilled enough in getting the fight to the ground is his big flaw. This is just a nightmare matchup for Craig in that he’s not going to be able to get Shogun on the ground. Fight will be on the feet. And Craig can be knocked out. 3 of Craig’s 4 losses in the UFC is from him being knocked out. This fight will be number 4. Shogun by 1st round knockout.
-Charles Oliveira: Oliveira has taken a step forward since moving back up to 155 lbs on a permanent basis. Unbelievably, he’s only 30 years old. Made his UFC debut when he was 21. 10-3 UFC record at 155 lbs. 5-5 UFC at 145 lbs. There’s no question lightweight is his best weight class. At 155 lbs, Oliveira has only lost to Donald Cerrone and Jim Miller, back in 2010 and 2011. And he lost to Paul Felder a couple years ago, although he was inches away from submitting Felder in that fight. Oliveira has won 5 in a row and it’s not over a bunch of nobies. Clay Guida, Jim Miller, David Teymur, Nik Lentz. Oliveira finished all of them. His grappling is close to plus plus. Striking is above average. Jared Gordon is 31 years old. 3-2 UFC record. Was knocked out by Diego Ferreira and Joaquim Silva. Gordon has average wrestling and average striking. I think this fight is a complete mismatch and Oliveira has recently run over fighters that are better than Gordon. Oliveira’s grappling is on a whole other level and he’ll be able to get Gordon down and submit him in the 1st round.
-James Krause: I normally don’t put too much stock into MMA math, but in this case, I think there’s logic to it. Krause is 33 years old. And has very quietly put together a 7-3 UFC record. He also just made his 170 lb debut and looked really good knocking out Warlley Alves. Krause’s losses have come against quality guys in Bobby Green, back when he was in his prime in 2013, and Jorge Masvidal. And he lost a split decision to a wrestler, but the Alves win was a breakout of sorts. I now have Krause at above average striking paired with average power. And he’s also got above average grappling. Sergio Moraes is now 37 years old. 8-4-1 UFC record. Very successful mid tier gate keeper. Moraes has only lost to ranked opponents. And he has solid wins over Neil Magny, Davi Ramos, and Omari Akhmedov. Moraes has plus grappling. So this is where the MMA math comes in. Moraes’ last fight, he got knocked out by Alves. Krause’s last fight? He knocked out Alves. Stylistically, Moraes has the best tool in this fight, his grappling. But Krause’s grappling is almost as good, and will be good enough to stuff take downs and keep the fight on the feet. And there, if Alves could knock Moraes out, I’m pretty confident Krause can too. Krause by 1st round knockout.
-Markus Perez: Perez is 29 years old. 2-2 in the UFC. Plus he does have a submission win over Ian Heinisch outside the UFC. He also has submission wins over 2 grapplers in Anthony Hernandez and James Bochnovic. But Perez runs into problems when he can’t get the fight to the ground as shown in his losses to guys that have wrestling in Andrew Sanchez and Eryk Anders. Perez has plus grappling. Wellington Turman did impress me in his UFC debut loss to Karl Roberson. 23 years old. 15-3 pro record. Knocked out a 7-1 striker in only his 3rd pro fight. Plus he submitted a 13-3 striker, beat a 12-3 striker, and submitted a well rounded 15-4 fighter. Turman has average grappling and average striking. The big reason I’m picking Perez to win this fight is a few years ago, Turman lost to a 9-3 wrestler, due to take downs. Of course, Turman has probably improved his wrestling a little bit, but Perez’s grappling is on a whole other level. I see Perez being able to take Turman down and getting the submission win by the 2nd round.
-Andre Muniz: Muniz is 29 years old, but he’s been in the game for awhile. His first pro fight was back in 2009. 18-4 pro record. Submitted a 5-0 striker in his UFC debut. Muniz also has a submission win over a 6-0 striker and a win over an 8-2 grappler. All 4 of Muniz’s losses have been from him getting knocked out. I grade Muniz as having above average grappling. Antonio Arroyo is 30 years old. 9-2 pro record. 2-0 in the UFC so far. Arroyo got submitted by a well rounded 2-0 fighter and got submitted by a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Arroyo’s grappling has gotten a little better as he submitted a 9-3 striker. Arroyo also has a knockout over a 11-2 striker. I grade Arroyo as having average striking and grappling that is close to average. Now, we’ve seen that the way to beat Arroyo is to submit him and the way to beat Muniz is to knock him out. But in this type of fight, usually whoever can control where the fight takes place will win. Muniz has the best tool in the fight, his grappling. He’ll be able to take Arroyo down and I’m picking him to get the submission in the 1st round.
-Ricardo Ramos: Pretty good fight here. Ramos is only 24 years old. 4-1 in the UFC. Got knocked out by Said Nurmagomedov. But has a knockout win over Aiemann Zahabi and a split decision win over Kyung Ho Kang. Ramos has above average grappling and average striking. Eduardo Garagorri is 30 years old. 13-0 pro record. And out struck Humberto Bandenay is his UFC debut. He also has a submission win over an 8-0 striker and another submission win over a 7-1 grappler. Garagorri has above average grappling. Close fight. I think the grappling cancels itself out and the fight will play out on the feet. And I’m pretty confident Ramos has the better striking. I’ll go Ramos by decision.
-Francisco Trinaldo: Trinaldo is now 41 years old. 13-6 UFC record. For years has been one of the most under rated fighters in the UFC, but he’s now lost 3 of his last 5 fights. He’s beat guys like Yancy Medeiros, Paul Felder, Jim Miller, and Evan Dunham. But he’s lost to that that tier of fighters in Michael Chiesa, Kevin Lee, James Vick, and Alexander Hernandez. Trinaldo once had plus wrestling but it’s now regressed to being above average. Bobby Green is younger at 33 years of age. 5-4-1 UFC record. He started off hot, going 4-0. Then lost to Edson Barboza and knocked out by Dustin Poirier and he’s never been the same since then. Green has only won 1 fight in his last 6, only beating Erik Koch. Green’s striking and grappling have both regressed to being average. In this fight, I think Trinaldo will be able to take Green down enough and do enough on the ground for him to win by decision.
-Randy Brown: On paper, it might look like Warlley Alves should win this fight. 28 years old. 7-3 UFC record. Has big wins over Colby Covington, Nordine Taleb, Alan Jouban, and Sergio Moraes. However, 4 of his 6 submission wins have come from the guillotine. A move that years ago was very effective, but in recent years, fighters have learned how to defend it better and is now a low percentage move. It might seem like Alves has plus grappling, but I grade it as above average because he relies so much on that one move and struggles with taking his opponent down. How do you beat Alves? You can take him down and out wrestle him. That’s where 2 of his losses came from. And it’s also proven you can knock him out if you can keep the fight on the feet. Alves’ hands have gotten a little better. His last 2 wins have come from him knocking out Sultan Aliev and Moraes. So I now grade Alves as having average striking. Brown is also pretty interesting. 29 years old. 5-3 UFC record. He’s also lost 2 of his fights from being out wrestled. The other loss was kind of a fluke knockout from Niko Price. But after losing to Belal Muhammed from getting taken down, Brown really improved his wrestling. He was able to stuff Mickey Gall’s take downs. Beat him. And stuffed take downs from Bryan Barbarena and knocked him out. Brown has above average striking and average wrestling. In this fight, I don’t think Alves is going to be able to get Brown on the ground. I think this fight plays out on the feet. Alves has gotten better. But he’s not at Brown’s level. Brown by 2nd round knockout.
-Douglas de Andrade: De Andrade is an interesting fighter. 34 years old. 3-3 UFC record. All 3 losses were against quality opponents. Zubaira Tukhugov, Rob Font, and Petr Yan. De Andrade also has a win over emerging contender Marlon Vera. He’s interesting because to the eye, he has a lot of power. But only 1 of his 3 UFC wins came by knockout. And all of his other wins outside the UFC were over cans. For now, I have de Andrade as having above average striking with average power. He also has average wrestling. Renan Barao has been around forever, but he’s only 32 years old. He started his UFC career 7-0. But after that, he’s gone 2-7. Combined, he’s got a 9-7 UFC record. He’s now moving up to 145 lbs hoping that not cutting as much weight will help him in the fight. To me, I just think Barao’s confidence is gone and usually when that happens in a fighter, it never comes back. Barao’s striking and grappling have regressed to where they’re now only average. I think de Andrade has the wrestling to keep the fight on the feet. He’ll be the bigger fighter. And I think de Andrade’s power emerges more in this fight and he knocks Barao out in the 2nd round.
-Ariane Lipski: Lipski is still only 25 years old. 11-5 pro record. 0-2 in the UFC, but the losses were to Joanne Calderwood and Molly McCann. Lipski does have a couple big wins outside the UFC. Surprisingly, both were her only career submission wins, one against UFC fighter Diana Belbita. The other was a submission win over a 12-4 grappler. Lipski has above average striking paired with average power. And she also has average grappling. Veronica Macedo is 24 years old. 1-3 UFC record. 6-3 pro record. She lost to pretty good competition. Ashlee Evans-Smith, Andrea Lee, Gillian Robertson. Then finally broke out submitting Polyana Viana in 1 minute. Macedo doesn’t have the best resume outside the UFC. All of her wins were over cans. One of those wins was a split decision, another was a majority decision. And she fought a 4-4-1 fighter to a draw. But, what’s interesting, is that her first 6 pro fights plus her UFC debut all happened in 2016 when she was 21 years. 7 fights in a year. Pretty insane. She didn’t fight in 2017. Lost to Lee in 2018. Lost to Robertson this past February. Submitted Viana this past August. So it’s hard to really know where Macedo’s skills are at. Right now, I grade her having average grappling. Macedo is obviously still developing and will get better, but she’s going to lose this fight. Lipski has enough grappling skill to stuff the take downs. Fight will play out on the feet. And Lipski is going to pick her apart in the striking. I’ll go Lipski by 2nd round knockout.
-Tracy Cortez: I was skeptical of Cortez heading into her UFC debut on the Contender Series. 25 years old. 5-1 pro record going into that fight. 1 knockout. 1 submission win. 3 decisions. All wins over cans. She was taking on a prospect with a 6-0 pro record. But Cortez’s wrestling was way better than I expected and the take downs helped her cruise to a decision win. As of now, I grade her wrestling as above average with the upside for more. Vanessa Melo is 31 years old. 10-6 pro record. Lost to Irene Aldana in her UFC debut on short notice. Journey woman. Average striking paired with below average power. This is an easy fight to pick. Cortez will use her wrestling to take Melo down when she needs to and will win by decision.