Amanda Nunes vs Felicia Spencer
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Amanda Nunes
Age: 31
UFC Record: 12-1
Key Wins: Beat Germaine de Randamie twice. Once by knockout, the other by decision. Knocked out Holly Holm, Cris Cyborg, Raqual Pennington, and Ronda Rousey. Submitted Miesha Tate. Beat Valentina Shevchenko twice.
Tools: Nunes has plus plus striking (80) and above average wrestling (60).
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Felicia Spencer
Age: 29
Pro Record: 13-2 combined pro and amateur record
UFC Record: 2-1
Key Losses: Cris Cyborg
Key Wins: Submitted Megan Anderson, Pam Sorenson, and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Macy Chiasson (2014).
Tools: Spencer has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little better than average (65-55). She also has plus grappling (70).
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This fight presents one of the best betting opportunities of the year. Matter of fact, I just saw one book have Spencer as high as a +500 underdog. That’s crazy. But the reason it’s happening is because Spencer only has 3 fights in the UFC and most of the betting public has no clue how good she is. It can be argued that Megan Anderson is the third best women’s featherweight in the UFC right now. Spencer submitted Anderson in 3 minutes. Dominant. And you could say, well in Spencer’s grappling is so great, why couldn’t she get Cyborg down? It’s because Cyborg has wrestling and she’s a really big featherweight. I think the big detail that most of the public is forgetting is that Nunes is a true bantamweight. Does Nunes have wrestling? Yes. But her ideal weight is 135 lbs. Spencer is a true featherweight. Spencer will be bigger. And when Nunes fought de Randamie in her last fight. De Randamie didn’t win, but showed that a fighter with better take downs has a path to win against Nunes. Is Nunes more likely to win. Yeah. But it’s close. And let’s not forget Spencer held her own against Cyborg. Cyborg out struck Spencer but didn’t completely blow her out either. I’d say this is a border line coin flip type fight. All 4 of Nunes’ pro losses have come from her being taken down.
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Chris’ Pick: Spencer at +500 makes this an easy pick. She has a very real chance of winning and I’m going to boldy pick Spencer by 2nd round submission.
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Cody Garbrandt vs Raphael Assuncao
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Cody Garbrandt
Age: 28
UFC Record: 6-3
Key Losses: Knocked out by Pedro Munhoz.
Key Wins: Knocked out Thomas Almeida. Beat Dominick Cruz.
Tools: Garbrandt has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
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Raphael Assuncao
Age: 37
UFC Record: 11-4
Key Wins: Beat Rob Font, Pedro Munhoz and Bryan Caraway. Split decision wins over Marlon Moraes, Aljamain Sterling, and TJ Dillashaw (2013).
Tools: Assuncao has above average striking (60) and plus grappling (70) .
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The style match up really favors Garbrandt here. Garbrandt showed in the Cruz fight that his wrestling is an easy plus. Assuncao won’t be able to get the fight to the ground. On the feet, it’s all Garbrandt. Or at least it should be, on paper. Garbrandt has been been knocked out in all 3 of his last fights. So it’s a valid question to ask where his confidence is. The thing I do know is that Assuncao has only 1 knockout win in the last 8 years.
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Chris’ Pick: Could Assuncao out strike Garbrandt? I don’t see it. I think Garbrandt takes a more patient and measured approach and wins by decision.
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Aljamain Sterling vs Cory Sandhagen
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Aljamain Sterling
Age: 30
UFC Record: 10-3
Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Bryan Caraway
Key Wins: Submitted Cody Stamann. Beat Pedro Munhoz, Jimmie Rivera, and Brett Johns.
Tools: Sterling has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and near plus grappling (65).
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Cory Sandhagen
Age: 27
UFC Record: 5-0
Key Wins: Knocked out Iuri Alcantara. Submitted Mario Bautista. Beat Raphael Assuncao. Split decision win over John Lineker.
Tools: Sandhagen has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has plus wrestling (70) and above average grappling (60).
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On the ground, Sandhagen would be in trouble. Sterling’s got a big grappling advantage there. But I doubt the fight gets there because both are about equal on the wrestling. This is going to be a stand up fight. Sterling’s striking has definitely improved but I think he’s now close to his ceiling. Sandhagen still developing. He hasn’t fought in close to a year. I think his striking will be improved.
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Chris’ Pick: Really close fight. I’m picking Sandhagen to out point Sterling and get the decision win.
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Neil Magny vs Anthony Rocco Martin
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Neil Magny
Age: 32
UFC Record: 18-7
Key Losses: Knocked out by Lorenz Larkin.
Key Wins: Knocked out Hector Lombard. Beat Jingliang Li and Tim Means.
Tools: Magny has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
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Anthony Rocco Martin
Age: 30
UFC Record: 5-1 at welterweight.
Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Demian Maia.
Key Wins: Knocked out Ryan LaFlare. Submitted Jake Matthews. Beat Ramazan Emeev. Tools: Martin has above average striking that’s paired with average power (60-50). He also has plus wrestling (70) and above average grappling (60).
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I do think Martin’s wrestling is better. That Martin can take Magny down a couple times if he really wants to. But the biggest ingredient to Magny’s success is his cardio. Jingliang out struck Magny in the 1st round but then got tired and Magny took over. Martin will be able to or come close to matching Magny’s cardio. But ultimately this is a projection pick because Martin’s striking has gotten a lot better in the past couple years. On paper, it’d appear Magny would out strike Martin. That’s why Magny is the betting favorite.
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Chris’ Pick: Martin is going to have a coming out party. Show the best striking in his career and out point Magny to win by decision.
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Sean O’Malley vs Eddie Wineland
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Sean O’Malley
Age: 25
Pro Record: 11-0
UFC Record: 4-0
Key Wins: Knocked out Jose Quinonez. Beat Andre Soukhamthath. Knocked out a well rounded 9-1 fighter.
Tools: O’Malley has plus striking (70) and average wrestling (50).
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Eddie Wineland
Age: 35
UFC Record: 6-7
Key Losses: Knocked out by Johnny Eduardo. Lost to Bryan Caraway and Alejandro Perez.
Key Wins: Knocked out Frankie Saenz and Grigory Popov.
Tools: Wineland has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
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Wineland looked rejuvenated in his last fight against Popov. But does he have a chance against O’Malley? I think he has a chance. Soukhamthath is the best wrestler O’Malley has fought against. Wineland’s wrestling is a little better, so O’Malley will be tested in that way. But O’Malley is 25 years old. Developing. I think he’ll be able to stuff the take downs. On the feet, Wineland does have knockout power. But he’s 35 years old. Regression is real. But Wineland definitely does have some betting value at +390.
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Chris’ Pick: I’m not sure how many times O’Malley will be taken down, but he’ll be on his feet
long enough to catch Wineland and knock him out in the 2nd round.
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Alex Caceres vs Chase Hooper
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Alex Caceres
Age: 31
UFC Record: 10-10
Key Losses: Lost to Masanori Kanehara. Lost a split decision to Guan Wang.
Tools: Caceres has average striking (50). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
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Chase Hooper
Age: 20
Pro Record: 9-0-1
UFC Record: 2-0
Key Draws: Fought a 7-8 striker to a draw.
Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel Teymur. Beat a 4-0 grappler.
Tools: Hooper has plus grappling (70).
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Caceres is pretty similar to Teymur, Hooper’s last opponent. Well rounded, but average. I see the same type of fight playing out. I do admit, I was a bit skeptical in Hooper before his fight with Teymur. I picked Teymur to win that fight due to Hooper failing to beat a 7-8 journeyman in his first fight after his Contender Series debut. But Hooper took a huge leap forward and he put on a show. Hooper’s grappling is so far ahead of Caceres. All it’s going to take is Hooper getting a hold of Caceres once. The main question in this fight is who looks more impressive in submitting Caceres: Hooper or Kron Gracie?
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Chris’ Pick: Hooper is going to get a quick 1st round submission.
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Ian Heinisch vs Gerald Meerschaert
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Ian Heinisch
Age: 31
UFC Record: 3-2
Key Losses: Lost to Omari Akhmedov.
Key Wins: Beat Antonio Carlos Jr and Cezar Fereira.
Tools: Heinisch has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
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Geraled Meerschaert
Age: 32
UFC Record: 6-4
Key Losses: Lost split decisions to Kevin Holland and Eryk Anders.
Key Wins: Submitted Ryan Janes, Oskar Piechota, and Trevin Giles.
Tools: Meerschaert has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has near plus grappling (65).
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On paper, both fighters are almost identical except Heinisch is more of a wrestler and Meerschaert more of a grappler. So for me, this pick is all about projection. Do I think either fighter takes a step forward in their development? And I’d say Heinisch is the guy that’s more likely to do that. Meerschaert has had 10 fights in the UFC. Most fighters come close to hitting their ceiling that far in. Plus he’s 32 years old. I don’t think Meerschaert gets much better. He is who he is. Meanwhile Heinisch is 5 fights in. Way less pro fights than Meerschaert.
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Chris’ Pick: I expect to see Heinisch have improved striking and because of that, I’m picking him to win by decision.
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Cody Stamann vs Brian Kelleher
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Cody Stamann
Age: 30
UFC Record: 4-1-1
Key Draws: Yadong Song
Key Wins: Split decision wins over Bryan Caraway and Tom Duquesnoy. Beat Alejandro Perez.
Tools: Stamann has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60).
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Brian Kelleher
Age: 33
UFC Record: 4-3
Key Losses: Knocked out Damian Stasiak.
Key Wins: Knocked out Hunter Azure. Submitted Iuri Alcantara. Beat Julio Arce twice. Once by submission, the other decision.
Tools: Kelleher has above average striking (60) and above average grappling (60).
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Azure and Stamann are very, very similar fighters. Almost identical. Same level and type of volume striking. Wrestling. This fight could be very similar to Azure vs Kelleher which just happened. The one difference is that Stamann just fought Yadong Song and Yadong has more power than Kelleher. And Stamann’s chin held up. But. Kelleher has won 2 in a row and could be developing a little bit himself. To me, this fight is a real coin flip. Could go either way. Striking will be close. But Stamann lacks the power Kelleher has. Stamann might be able to take Kelleher down, but that’s a dangerous place for Stamann.
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Chris’ Pick: I think either guy could win, but Kelleher is a +230 underdog. So I’m going to pick Kelleher to knock Stamann out in the 2nd round.
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Charles Byrd vs Maki Pitolo
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Charles Byrd
Age: 36
UFC Record: 3-2
Key Wins: Submitted a 6-2 striker. Knocked out a 10-3 grappler and a 5-1 wrestler. Beat a 7-0 striker by split decision.
Tools: Byrd has average striking (50) and average grappling (50).
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Maki Pitolo
Age: 28
Pro Record: 12-5
UFC Record: 1-1
Key Losses: Lost to Callan Potter.
Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-2 striker.
Tools: Pitolo has average striking (50)
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Pretty easy fight to pick. Pitolo showed how one dimensional he is in losing to a journeyman in Potter. There’s no reason for Byrd to stand and trade with Pitolo.
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Chris’ Pick: Byrd will take Pitolo down and submit him in the 1st round.
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Jussier Formiga vs Alex Perez
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Jussier Formiga
Age: 35
UFC Record: 9-6
Key Losses: Lost to Ray Borg.
Key Wins: Beat Wilson Reis, Dustin Ortiz, Sergio Pettis, and Deveison Figueiredo.
Tools: Formiga has above average striking (60). He also has plus wrestling (70) and above average grappling (60).
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Alex Perez
Age: 28
UFC Record: 6-1
Key Wins: Knocked out Jose Torres. Submitted Jordan Espinosa. Beat Mark de la Rosa and Eric Shelton.
Tools: Perez has plus striking (70). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and above average grappling (65).
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Formiga fights are pretty simple. He wins when he can take his opponents down and loses when he can’t. So he does have a legit path to win here. I think Perez has the wrestling to stuff the take downs or at least get back up if taken down, but I’m not 100% sure. Benavidez and Formiga are the best wrestlers Perez has gone against and Benavidez knocked Perez out before the wrestling could really be tested. Obviously if the the fight stays on the feet, it’s all Perez. Formiga’s hands have improved but the tool is still not at an elite, plus level.
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Chris’ Pick: Perez blitzes Formiga and knocks him out in the 1st round.
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Alonzo Menifield vs Devin Clark
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Alonzo Menifield
Age: 32
Pro Record: 9-0
UFC Record: 4-0
Key Wins: Knocked out Paul Craig, a 9-1 grappler, and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
Tools: Menifield has plus striking (70) and above average wrestling (60).
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Devin Clark
Age: 31
UFC Record: 5-4
Key Losses: Knocked out by Alex Nicholson.
Key Wins: Beat Mike Rodriguez.
Tools: Clark has average striking (50) and above average wrestling (60).
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Is Clark going to be able to take Menifield down or keep him pinned against the fence? That’s what this fight comes down to. And based on Menifield’s take down defense against Craig, I doubt it.
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Chris’ Pick: It’s been proven in losses to Ryan Spann and Aleksandar Rakic that Clark can be knocked out and I think Menifield is the latest to do it. Menifield by 1st round knockout.
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Evan Dunham vs Herbert Burns
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Evan Dunham
Age: 38
UFC Record: 11-8-1
Key Losses: Knocked out by Francisco Trinaldo and Oliver Aubin-Mercier
Key Wins: Beat Rick Glenn
Tools: Dunham has average striking (50) and above average grappling (60).
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Herbert Burns
Age: 32
Pro Record: 10-2
UFC Record: 2-0
Key Wins: Knocked out Nate Landwehr. Submitted a 5-0 striker, a well rounded 9-1 fighter, and a 7-2 striker. Beat a 10-1 striker.
Tools: Burns has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has near plus grappling (65).
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Progression and regression are real things, We’ve seen that recently in Herbert’s brother dominating Tyron Woodley. And then based on Landwehr recently beating a successful gate keeper like Darren Elkins, Burns’ Landwehr win looks even better. On paper, Burns appears to be better everywhere. In reality, Burns’ striking seems to be developing rapidly. And Dunham is 38 years old and hasn’t fought in almost 2 years. Dunham has been knocked out in both his last 2 fights. I think it’s likely Burns will want to see what his striking can do.
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Chris’ Pick: Burns gets the knockout in the 2nd round.
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