Dos Anjos vs Felder, Alhassan vs Williams, Marquez vs Safarov Fight Picks

Rafael dos Anjos vs Paul Felder

  • Rafael dos Anjos
  • Age: 36
  • UFC Record: 14-7 at 155 lbs.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Donald Cerrone and Ben Henderson. Beat Nate Diaz and Anthony Pettis.
  • Tools: dos Anjos has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average average grappling (50).
  • Paul Felder
  • Age: 35
  • UFC Record: 9-4
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Danny Castillo, Stevie Ray, and Charles Oliveira. Submitted Daron Cruickshank. Beat James Vick. Split decision over Edson Barboza in their 2nd fight.
  • Tools: Felder has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has above average wrestling (60). 

How do I grade dos Anjos’ wrestling? It’s tricky. In 2017, he out wrestled Neil Magny and Robbie Lawler. That’s a 70. But then he got dominated and taken down by Kamaru Usman. Ok, dos Anjos’ probably has 65 wrestling. He submitted Kevin Lee, but that had more to do with Lee gassing out. dos Anjos couldn’t take down Leon Edwards. And most alarmingly, he was taken down again and again by grappler Michael Chiesa. After that fight and with dos Anjos now being 36 years old, I have to grade his wrestling a 60 now. I know he’s returning to lightweight, but that can’t be easy for someone who’s his age (also my age haha). Usuaully when fighters get older, they move up in weight. Meanwhile with Felder, I think it’s possible his wrestling could be a 65. He hasn’t fought many wrestlers the past few years. Back in 2017, he knocked out Charles Oliveira, he was taken down by Oliveira but got back up. We know Oliveira has 70 grappling. Since then, Felder has mostly fought strikers. Last fight, he got taken down by Dan Hooker a couple times. But has Hooker improved his wrestling? Probably, because those City Kickboxing guys can all wrestle. So I’m very confident in saying Felder has at least 60 wrestling. These grades determine most of the fight, but the other X factor is how well Felder’s cardio will hold up over 5 rounds. He did take the fight on less than 5 day’s notice. That’s really my main concern in picking Felder as he’s not likely to knock dos Anjos out. But his striking is a clear tier above dos Anjos. I think he’ll at least win the first 3-4 rounds to win on points.

Chris’ Pick: Felder by decision.


Abdul Razak Alhassan vs Khaos Williams

  • Abdul Razak Alhassan
  • Age: 35
  • UFC Record: 4-2
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Omari Akhmedov.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Niko Price.
  • Tools: Alhassan has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
  • Khaos Williams
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 10-1
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Morono. Beat a well rounded 9-3 fighter.
  • Tools: Williams has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average wrestling (50).

Sometimes quick knockouts can be mirages. Usually, the best way to tell if a fighter’s striking is superior is to see if it’s superior for a prolonged period of time. Yes, Khaos Williams knocking out a quality guy in Alex Morono looked really impressive. But I don’t think Williams’ striking has improved that dramatically. If you watch his other fights, his striking is a 55. I think the Morono knockout was more of the mirage variety. I still think really highly of Alhassan. I’m very convinced his striking is better. And even if it’s not, I think Alhassan could take down Williams if he needed to.

Chris’ Pick: Alhassan by 1st round knockout.


Brendan Allen vs Sean Strickland

  • Brendan Allen
  • Age: 24
  • Pro Record: 15-3
  • UFC Record: 4-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Tom Breese. Submitted Kevin Holland, a 9-1 striker, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, and a 6-1 striker. Beat an 8-1 striker. 
  • Tools: Allen has average striking (50). He also has plus wrestling (70) and plus grappling (70).
  • Sean Strickland
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 8-3
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Nordine Taleb. Beat Court McGee. Split decision over Tom Breese.
  • Tools: Strickland has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60).

I understand the betting line, as far as this being a pick em. The narrative is: Strickland has wrestling and if he can keep the fight on the feet, he probably wins. But Allen’s proved that he has real 70 wresting after taking down the likes of Tom Breese and Kevin Holland. Strickland’s wrestling is 60 at best.

Chris’ Pick: Allen by 2nd round submission.


Kay Hansen vs Cory McKenna

  • Kay Hansen
  • Age: 21
  • Pro Record: 7-3
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted Jihn Yu Frey and 4-1 striker. Knocked out an 8-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 6-0 fighter.
  • Tools: Hansen has average striking (50). She also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
  • Cory McKenna
  • Age: 21
  • Pro Record: 5-1
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to a well rounded 5-1 fighter when she was 18 years old.
  • Key Wins: Beat a 5-1 grappler. Split decision over a 3-0 grappler.
  • Tools: McKenna has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). She also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).

Two of the youngest prospects in the UFC collide here. But I have more questions with McKenna. She struggled to beat a 3-0 grappler. And beat Vanessa Demopoulos mostly because Demopoulos had a flawed strategy of accepting take downs to try and get a submission off her back. McKenna being on top was pretty much how she won the fight. Hansen’s wrestling will make the difference here.

Chris’ Pick: Hansen by decision.


Eryk Anders vs Antonio Arroyo

  • Eryk Anders
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 5-4 at 185 lbs.
  • Key Losses: Split decision losses to Lyoto Machida and Elias Theodorou. 
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Rafael Natal. Beat Markus Perez. Split decision over Gerald Meerschaert. 
  • Tools: Anders has above average striking (60) and near plus wrestling (65). 
  • Antonio Arroyo
  • Age: 31
  • Pro Record: 9-3
  • UFC Record: 2-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 9-3 striker. Knocked out a 11-2 striker.
  • Tools: Arroyo has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).

This will be a fun fight while it lasts. I thought Arroyo had 45 grappling going into his fight with Andre Muniz, but he proved me wrong. Anders has improved his wrestling a lot. He went from losing to the likes of Elias Theodorou to being able to hold his own with Gerald Meerschaert and Krzysztof Jotko. Anders should be better everywhere.

Chris’ Pick: Anders by 2nd round knockout.


Miranda Granger vs Ashley Yoder

  • Miranda Granger
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 7-1
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted Jamie Colleen. Beat Hannah Goldy.
  • Tools: Granger has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). She also has above average grappling (60).
  • Ashley Yoder
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 2-5
  • Key Losses: Split decision losses to MacKenzie Dern and Randa Markos.
  • Tools: Yoder has striking that’s a little above average (55-45). She also has above average wrestling (60).

Yoder has lost a lot of really close fights in the UFC. But her striking improved as she showed in out striking Livinha Souza. Which, in my opinion, Yoder beat Souza. This fight could very well play out similar to Granger vs Amanda Lemos. Yoder could have an advantage in taking Granger down and winning that way if she can stay out of the grappling danger. But what’s most likely is that this is a stand up fight and Yoder edging Granger out there.

Chris’ Pick: Yoder by decision.


Alex Morono vs Rhys McKee

  • Alex Morono
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 6-3
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Keita Nakamura.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Zak Ottow. Beat Kenan Song and Max Griffin.
  • Tools: Morono has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average grappling (60).
  • Rhys McKee
  • Age: 25
  • Pro Record: 10-3-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Jai Herbert in 2016, a well rounded 6-2 fighter, and a 5-0 striker.
  • Tools: McKee has average striking (50) and fringe average grappling (45).

McKee is supposed to be a top prospect. He does have a great frame. Great reach for the weight. But he gets hit too much. And the UFC is not taking it easy on him with the quality of competition he’s getting right out of the gate. First Khamzat Chimaev. Now Morono. This is a real mismatch, especially in the grappling.

Chris’ Pick: Morono by 1st round submission.


Luis Smolka vs Jose Quinonez

  • Louis Smolka
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 7-7 overall, 1-1 at 135 lbs.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Paddy Holohan and Mudaerji Su. Knocked out Ben Nguyen.
  • Tools: Smolka has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
  • Jose Quinonez
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 6-4
  • Key Wins: Beat Marco Beltran, Diego Rivas and Teruto Ishihara.
  • Tools: Quinonez has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).

I agree with where the line is at. Could be close but the one factor that makes me pick Smolka is his emerging power at 135 lbs. 2 of Quinonez’s 4 losses have come by knockout. His lost to Nathaniel Wood, he was knocked down and submitted. And Sean O’Malley knocked him out in 2 minutes in Quinonez’s last fight.

Chris’ Pick: Smolka by 2nd round knockout.


Randa Markos vs Kanako Murata

  • Randa Markos
  • Age: 35
  • UFC Record: 8-9-1
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jessica Penne.
  • Key WIns: Submitted Felice Herrig and Angela Hill. Beat Tecia Torres. Split decision win over Carla Esparza.
  • Tools: Markos has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50). 
  • Kanako Murata
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 11-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 7-2 striker. Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
  • Tools: Murata has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). She also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).

This betting line is crazy to me, Murata as a close to 2 to 1 favorite. I watched her last fight. She barely squeaked out a split decision win over an 8-5 grappler. She’s supposed to high level wrestling, but I didn’t see that. I feel like a 50 wrestling grade is generous. This might be bold because of the narrative, but I actually think Markos out wrestles Murata. And worst case scenario, even if I’m wrong and Murata’s wrestling is better than I think, Markos still will have the better striking. Markos at +150 has tremendous value.

Chris’ Pick: Markos by decision.


Tony Gravely vs Geraldo de Freitas

  • Tony Gravely
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 19-6
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Knocked out a well rounded 15-5 fighter, an 8-0 grappler, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 7-2 wrestler.
  • Tools: Gravely has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
  • Geraldo de Freitas
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 12-5
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 6-1 grappler and a 4-0 grappler. Knocked out a 7-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 13-4 fighter, an 11-2 grappler, and an 8-0 grappler.
  • Tools: De Freitas has above average striking (60). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).

I thought de Freitas was going to get wiped out by Chris Guttierez, but de Freitas hung in there. And to my surprise, de Freitas’ striking was close to equal to Guttierez’s. He also showed borderline 55 wrestling in being able to take Guttierez down a few times. I’m pretty convinced the fight will be on the feet and de Freitas has the better striking.

Chris’ Pick: de Freitas by decision.


Don’tale Mayes vs Roque Martinez

  • Don’tale Mayes
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 2-3
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by Allen Crowder.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-1 grappler and a 4-0 striker. 
  • Tools: Mayes has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average wrestling (50).
  • Roque Martinez
  • Age: 34
  • Pro Record: 15-6
  • UFC Record: 0-1
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by Mirko Cro Cop. Split decision loss to a 12-9 wrestler.
  • Key Draws: Fought a 16-11 wrestler to a draw.
  • Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Split decision win over an 8-2 wrestler.
  • Tools: Martinez has fringe average striking (45). He also has average wrestling (50) and fringe average grappling (45).

Mayes has been improving his wrestling, despite getting taken down and submitted by Rodrigo Nascimento in his last fight. But he won’t have to worry about that with Martinez. Mayes has better striking, way faster.

Chris’ Pick: Mayes by 1st round knockout.

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