TJ Dillashaw vs Cory Sandhagen
- TJ Dillashaw
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 15-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cody Garbrandt and Renan Barao twice. Beat John Lineker and Raphael Assuncao.
- Tools: Dillashaw has near plus plus striking (75) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Corey Sandhagen
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Frankie Edgar, Marlon Moraes, and Iuri Alcantara. Submitted Mario Bautista. Beat Raphael Assuncao. Split decision win over John Lineker.
- Tools: Sandhagen has plus striking (70). He also has plus wrestling (70) and above average grappling (60).
This is pay per view main event quality that we’re getting here that really contrasts the approach of picking based on projection vs skill. What I mean by that, is basing your pick off of where the fighter’s skills were at in their last fight as opposed to trying to predict where a fighter’s tools will be in their next fight. I understand why Sandhagen is the favorite. He’s looked great lately and has finally unlocked some KO power in his hands, which he wasn’t doing early in his UFC career. But with Sandhagen a nearly 2 to 1 favorite, it’s based on people predicting that Dillashaw isn’t the fighter he once was. He’s been gone for over 2 years. Was knocked out in his last fight. Is 35 years old. But if you look at where both fighter’s striking tools are at based on their last fight, to me, Dillashaw has a clear advantage. Not much to take from Sandhagen’s KO over Edgar. That happened so fast. Look at his last fight with Moraes, who had 70 striking going into that fight. The striking was pretty close to equal before Sandhagen broke Moraes’ orbital bone and knocked him out. So I can’t grade his striking more than a 70, even though everybody seems to love him. And with Dillashaw, his last fight was at 125 lbs. We know the story. He tested positive for PEDs. But his last fight at 135 lbs, he knocked out Garbrandt. Twice. And that was right after Garbrandt beat Dominick Cruz. I’m very convinced that in Dillashaw’s last fight, he had 75 striking. In my experience, I’ve had a lot of success picking based on grading the tools. Because no one can predict how a fighter looks in their next fight. Dillashaw at +150 is great. And one more thing, we can’t just throw away the fact that in Sandhagen’s first high profile fight on pay per view with Aljamain Sterling, he didn’t look like himself. It was like the moment was too big for him and he got submitted in less than 2 minutes. So there’s that part too.
Chris’ Pick: Dillashaw by 2nd round knockout.
Raulian Paiva vs Kyler Phillips
- Raulian Paiva
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 20-3
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Split decision to Kai Kara-France.
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 11-3 grappler. Beat Zhalgas Zhumagulov and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Split decision wins over a 17-4 grappler and a well rounded 9-2 fighter.
- Tools: Paiva has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60).
- Kyler Phillips
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-1 grappler. Beat Yadong Song and an 8-1 striker.
- Tools: Phillips has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
Paiva is really good. Now that he’s moving up to 135 lbs and not putting his body through brutal weight cuts, it’s possible he could be even better. And I’m not 100% confident in grading his wrestling. It might be a 65, but I have it graded as a 60 because he’s moving up to fight guys that are bigger and stronger. But as good as Paiva is, Phillips is even better. And he’s really one of these guys that came into the UFC as a regular prospect. Lost to Brad Katona on The Ultimate Fighter. But he’s improved by leaps and bounds, everywhere. Not just striking. So, Paiva could come in with 65 wrestling. Let’s say he does. Even then, it’s not going to be enough to take Phillips down. That means Phillips has a monster advantage on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Phillips by decision.
Darren Elkins vs Darrick Minner
- Darren Elkins
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 15-8
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mirsad Bektic, but that had more to do with Bektic gassing out. Submitted Luiz Garagorri. Beat Chas Skelly and Godofredo Pepey. Split decision over Dennis Bermudez.
- Tools: Elkins has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60).
- Darrick Minner
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 26-11
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Submitted TJ Laramie, a 10-3 grappler, a 13-4 grappler, a 7-2 grappler, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat Charles Rosa and an 11-4 grappler.
- Tools: Minner has above average striking (60) and near plus grappling (65).
James Krause should be a top 3 contender for coach of the year. The improvement I’ve seen from his camp at Glory MMA in Kansas City is pretty vast. And Minner is another one of those guys, who’s particularly improved his striking. He took on a similar fighter in Rosa last time out. Threw bombs on the feet, partly because it was a way to get close and take Rosa down. And Elkins is a guy that retired but recently came back. So you have to wonder where his tools are really at. I see Minner taking Elkins down again and again until he gets the submission. But he could win on the feet too. 2 legit paths to win.
Chris’ Pick: Minner by 2nd round submission.
Maycee Barber vs Miranda Maverick
- Maycee Barber
- Age: 23
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hannah Cifers. JJ Aldrich. and Gillian Robertson.
- Tools: Barber has near plus striking (65) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Miranda Maverick
- Age: 24
- Pro/Amateur Record: 17-2
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Losses: Lost to DeAnna Bennett.
- Key Wins: Submitted DeAnna Bennett and Shanna Young. Knocked out Liana Jojua. Beat Gillian Robertson and a 6-1 grappler.
- Tools: Maverick has above average striking (60). She also has near plus wrestling (65) and near plus grappling (65).
I love Barber here at +130. The way this fight is priced, Maverick is the favorite because of momentum. Plus there’s a misconception. Maybe people saw Alexa Grasso keep up with Barber’s wrestling and thought, oh Barber’s wrestling isn’t as good as I thought. But I had Grasso with a 65 grade on her wrestling coming into that fight. I was already aware that she had developed there. Barber’s wrestling is still a 65. And that Grasso fight was really close and really could have gone either way based on who you thought won the 1st round. Look, Maverick is an elite prospect. She’ll probably be fighting for the title in 2-3 years. But for now, Barber has better striking. And that Grasso fight was Barber’s first back after tearing her ACL. She should look better in this fight.
Chris’ Pick: Barber by decision.
Adrian Yanez vs Randy Costa
- Adrian Yanez
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 13-3
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Domingo Pilarte in 2017 and Miles John in 2018.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gustavo Lopez, a 5-2 striker, and a well rounded 11-1 fighter. Submitted a 5-2 grappler.
- Tools: Yanez has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
- Randy Costa
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Journey Newsom and a 6-2 striker.
- Tools: Costa has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
I can understand why Yanez is the favorite. Costa has a submission loss to Brandon Davis on his record. Doesn’t look good. I get it. But since that loss, Costa has come back an improved fighter. And his striking has a high upside. My only concern in picking Costa here is that he starts so fast. Is used to getting the quick finish in the 1st round. If he doesn’t get that, he could be in trouble. Yanez has proved to be quite good. 3 UFC fights. 3 knockouts. But I have Costa graded as the better striker and I do think he gets it done early. And with Costa at a +150 price, there’s not too much risk.
Chris’ Pick: Costa by 1st round knockout.
Punahele Soriano vs Brendan Allen
- Punahele Soriano
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dusko Todorovic, Oskar Piechota and a 5-1 striker. Beat a 7-3 striker.
- Tools: Soriano has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Brendan Allen
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tom Breese. Submitted Kevin Holland, a 9-1 striker, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, and a 6-1 striker. Beat an 8-1 striker.
- Tools: Allen has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and near plus grappling (65).
Striker vs grappler and a true test for where Soriano’s wrestling is at. He looks like an elite prospect but hasn’t fought any grappler near Allen’s level. I have Soriano’s wrestling graded as a 55 for now. And I don’t think that’s going to get it done. Allen has no problem going for a take down early and often. He should be smart enough to know that he can’t stand and trade with Soriano for too long. I like Soriano, but I see take down after take down until Allen gets the submission.
Chris’ Pick: Allen by 2nd round submission.
Ian Heinisch vs Nassourdine Imavov
- Ian Heinisch
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Omari Akhmedov.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gerald Meerschaert. Beat Antonio Carlos Jr and Cezar Fereira.
- Tools: Heinisch has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
- Nassourdine Imavov
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 9-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Phil Hawes.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 3-0 wrestler and a 9-1 striker. Beat Jordan Williams and a 12-4 grappler.
- Tools: Imavov has above average striking (60) and above average grappling (60).
Real coin flip fight. Not a confident pick from me. I have both fighters graded almost identical, with Heinisch more of a wrestler and Imavov more of a grappler. So I have to project here and I like Heinisch slightly more. He lost to Kelvin Gastelum because of Gastelum’s wrestling, but when they were on the feet, Heinisch did a little better than I thought. It’s possible Heinisch’s striking could have improved to a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Heinisch by split decision.
Mickey Gall vs Jordan Williams
- Mickey Gall
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Diego Sanchez. Lost to Mike Perry
- Key Wins: Submitted Sage Northcutt.
- Tools: Gall has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Jordan Williams
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 5-0 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gregory Rodrigues and a 4-0 grappler.
- Tools: Williams has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
I used to think Gall had 60-65 grappling. He looked so good. But as he faces better competition, I’m learning his grappling looked that way because of who he was fighting. He’s beat guys like Mike Jack, CM Punk. He beat George Sullivan, who had a 3-4 UFC record. And Salim Touahri, who went 0-3 in the UFC. His last fight was against Mike Perry, who has 55 wrestling. And Gall didn’t get close to taking him down. Gall’s striking has improved to a 50, but his power is still a 40. Williams on the hand is a legit prospect. And at first I wasn’t sure about him. He’s type 1 diabetic. Very inspirational. But very small for the weight class as he doesn’t cut much weight. He took on a very tough opponent last time out in Nassourdine Imavov and he really impressed me. Imavov is a very, very good prospect and the fight was really close. I really like Williams here. His wrestling is just as good as Perry’s. Gall won’t be able to get him down. Williams is a near lock and only priced at a little over -200. Solid value.
Chris’ Pick: Williams by 2nd round knockout.
Julio Arce vs Andre Ewell
- Julio Arce
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Hakeem Dawodu and Sheymon Moraes.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Julian Erosa. Beat Dan Ige.
- Tools: Arce has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average wrestling (60).
- Andre Ewell
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Wins: Split decision wins over Jonathan Martinez and Irwin Rivera.
- Tools: Ewell has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Arce returns for the first time in almost 2 years. He’s got a 4-2 UFC record, but still has a lot of potential to do things in the division. He even has a signature win over Ige. And with Ewell, I’ve seen him plenty. I’m very confident in where I graded his tools. He’s developed a little bit, but at 33 years of age is probably at his ceiling. I’m also very confident in Arce’s striking being a 65 with the way his striking totals were close to equal with Hakeem Dawodu last time out. So in other words, I’d say Arce is a near lock.
Chris’ Pick: Arce by decision.
Sijara Eubanks vs Elise Reed
- Sijara Eubanks
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 2-3 at 135 lbs. 7-3 overall.
- Key Losses: Lost to Bethe Correia.
- Key Wins: Beat Julia Avila and Lauren Murphy. Beat Roxanne Modafferi twice.
- Tools: Eubanks has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has near plus wrestling (65).
- Elise Reed
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-2 fighter. Split decision over a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Tools: Reed has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average wrestling (60).
I really like Reed as a prospect. 60 wrestling. She’s going to do things in the UFC. But Eubanks is such a stiff test for a UFC debut. Eubanks almost beat Pannie Kianzad. Took her down a couple times. She does a big win over Avila. The only possible pathway I see for Reed is that maybe Reed knocks Eubanks out, because I do have Reed graded with more power.
Chris’ Pick: Eubanks by decision.
Diana Belbita vs Hannah Goldy
- Diana Belbita
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 13-6
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Majority decision win over a 0-2 fighter in 2017.
- Tools: Belbita has above average striking (60). She also has average wrestling (50) and fringe average grappling (45).
- Hannah Goldy
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 5-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Beat Gillian Robertson and a 6-2 grappler.
- Tools: Goldy has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Belbita might have an unsavory 0-2 UFC record, but she still proved that she has 60 striking with the way she was able to keep up with Molly McCann in the stand up. She takes on Goldy who has 55 wrestling and she’s not afraid to use it, even if the fight becomes boring. That type of dynamic could make this fight a coin flip. Goldy taking Belbita down. Belbita getting back up. Rinse and repeat. But I’m picking Belbita because she has a huge power advantage on the feet. Her striking should impress the judges enough to get the win.
Chris’ Pick: Belbita by decision.