Cesar Almeida vs Lucas Fernando
- Cesar Almeida
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 3-0
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Lucas Fernando
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 9-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jansey Silva, a well rounded 18-3 fighter, and a 4-0 striker. Beat a 5-1 striker and a 6-2 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Fernando’s striking looked really good against Contender vet Silva, really out classed him on the feet. I couldn’t find any video on Almeida, but he’s only got 3 pro fights. All three were 1st round KOs. Even if Almeida’s striking is better, I think Fernando has the ability to take him down. Tire him out. Fernando looks to have really good cardio. I see him taking over in the 2nd half of the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Fernando by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Fernando -175
Tom Nolan vs Bogdan Grad
- Tom Nolan
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Bogdan Grad
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 11-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 grappler. Submitted a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat a well rounded 17-6 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Nolan reminds me of a young Max Holloway. The amount of pressure and volume he puts on opponents is crazy. And even more impressive is he doesn’t get tired. Cardio is crazy. Grad looks like a solid prospect in his own right and the 1st round might be close, but Nolan will take over in the 2nd round.
Chris’ Pick: Nolan by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Nolan -225
Kevin Szaflarski vs Caio Machado
- Kevin Szaflarski
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 11-1
- Key Wins: Beat a 6-1 striker. Majority decision over a 7-1 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Caio Machado
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 7-1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
Wasn’t overly impressed by either when I watched. Szaflarski has a slight edge in that he could probably take Machado down if he wanted, but I think it’s a stand up fight. Total heavyweight coin flip that could go either way.
Chris’ Pick: Szaflarski by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Szaflarski -135
Payton Talbott vs Junior Cortez
- Payton Talbott
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-1 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Junior Cortez
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 4-3 striker.
- Key Wins: Beat a 3-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I watched Talbott’s last fight with a 8-1 striker and his cardio won him the fight. He got taken down repeatedly in the first half, but his opponent gassed out and Talbott took over after that. I will say it’s possible Talbott’s wrestling could be as low as a 50. Cortez’s loss to Christian Rodriguez on the Contender sure has aged well. Rodriguez won, but he didn’t dominate either. I’m fairly confident Cortez will be able to get take downs and have the gas tank to do it all fight.
Chris’ Pick: Cortez by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Cortez -300
Victor Dias vs Kevin Borjas
- Victor Dias
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 11-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Kevin Borjas
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 9-1
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
The one loss of Borjas’ career came in 2019, took on a well rounded 12-6 fighter. Borjas had his opponent dropped, hurt. Borjas went berserk trying to get the finish. Gassed out. And with nothing left, Borjas himself was dropped and submitted in the 2nd round. It’s been 4 years since that happened. You’d figure his cardio has improved since then. But there’s a real possibility the striking is a 55 with the lack of quality wins he has on his resume. Dias’ grappling was better than I thought it’d be. I watched his last fight against a well rounded 9-5 fighter who I thought had 50 grappling and Dias dominated. But he does get hit and there’s a bit of projection baked into the 55 grade of his striking. It’s possible it could be as low as a 50. I do think Borjas is the most likely to win because Dias gets hit, but at the same time, Dias does have a chance with his grappling.
Chris’ Pick: Borjas by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Borjas -150