Rafael dos Anjos vs Vicente Luque
- Rafael dos Anjos
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 5-4 at 170 lbs. 21-12 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Donald Cerrone and Ben Henderson. Submitted Bryan Barberena. Beat Renato Moicano, Paul Felder, Nate Diaz, and Anthony Pettis.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Vicente Luque
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 14-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Randy Brown, Belal Muhammad, Chad Laprise, and Bryan Barbarena. Submitted and knocked out Niko Price. Also submitted Michael Chiesa and Tyron Woodley.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Despite how dominant dos Anjos looked in the Barberena fight, look, it’s Barberena. He has 55 wrestling. Let’s not forget, dos Anjos has been dominated on the ground by the likes of Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington, guys with 75 wrestling. Luque’s got better striking, more power, he just has to make sure he doesn’t gas out over the 5 rounds because with how durable dos Anjos is, it’s likely going to the judges.
Chris’ Pick: Luque by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Luque -250
Cub Swanson vs Hakeem Dawodu
- Cub Swanson
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 13-9
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Shane Burgos.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Darren Elkins and Daniel Pineda. Beat Doo Ho Choi and Kron Gracie.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Hakeem Dawodu
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Losses: Submitted by Danny Henry.
- Key Wins: Beat Michael Trizano. Split decisions over Zubaira Tukhugov and Julio Arce.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Swanson might have gotten knocked out by Jonathan Martinez, but Swanson actually out struck him 48 to 37. So even though he’s 39 years old, I have to respect the skills and grade the tool a 65, although there’s always going to be some regression risk any time he fights. Dawodu has the better striking. Not completely sold on Swanson’s power being a 65. But Swanson could have some success if he mixes in his wrestling. All that said, Dawodu is most likely to win..
Chris’ Pick: Dawodu by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Dawodu -135
Chris Daukaus vs Khalil Rountree
- Chris Daukaus
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alexei Oleinik and Rodrigo Nascimento.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Khalil Rountree
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 8-6
- Key Losses: Submitted by Tyson Pedro.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Karl Roberson, Modestas Bukauskas, Paul Craig, and Gokhan Saki. Beat Eryk Anders. Split decision over Dustin Jacoby.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I’m very confident Dustin Jacoby has 65 striking. So despite Rountree picking up the split decision win over him, the reality is that Jacoby out struck him 116 to 80. So even though Rountree has shown massive power, the striking tool is a 60. It’s scary picking Daukaus here. He’s been knocked out 3 times in a row in his last 3 fights. He’s also cutting down to 205 lbs for the first time and if the weight cut isn’t good, it could cause him to be less durable than he already is. And it could be scary going against a knockout artist like Rountree. But on paper, going by the numbers, Daukaus should have better striking.
Chris’ Pick: Daukaus by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Daukaus -175
Polyana Viana vs Iasmin Lucindo
- Polyana Viana
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Losses: Submitted by Veronica Macedo. Split decision loss to Hannah Cifers.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jinh Yu Frey and Amanda Ribas back in 2015. Submitted Mallory Martin and Emily Whitmire.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: a little above (55)
- Iasmin Lucindo
- Age: 21
- Pro Record: 14-5
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Beat Brogan Walker and an 8-3 grappler. Split decision over Sarah Frota.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Brogan Walker’s striking was slightly better than I thought it was going to be. But bottom line is I know Lucindo’s striking is a 65 with how close the Jauregui fight was. Luncindo will probably be closing in on a title shot in the next couple years. In the meantime, she’s going to out class Viana. Better everywhere.
Chris’ Pick: Lucindo by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Lucindo -400
Tafon Nchukwi vs AJ Dobson
- Tafon Nchukwi
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out William Knight and an 8-2 striker. Beat Mike Rodriguez and Jamie Pickett.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- AJ Dobson
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 6-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Knocked out a 4-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Both of these guys are very similar to each other. I do like Nchukwi’s cardio a little better. But both have big KO power and either could win.
Chris’ Pick: Nchukwi by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Nchukwi -125
Josh Fremd vs Jamie Pickett
- Josh Fremd
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 10-4
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-2 striker and a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Submitted Sedriques Dumas and a 5-1 wrestler. Split decision over a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Jamie Pickett
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 3-7
- Key Losses: Submitted by Charles Byrd.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-3 striker. Beat Joseph Holmes and Laureano Staropoli.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Pickett has had 10 fights in the UFC and he hasn’t developed much. He’s still the same guy with well rounded 55 tools. Fremd’s win over Dumas wasn’t an upset. He’s just the better fighter. And Fremd should be the better fighter against Pickett.
Chris’ Pick: Fremd by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Fremd -300
JP Buys vs Marcus McGhee
- JP Buys
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 9-5
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Marcus McGhee
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Journey Newson. Knocked out a 4-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
McGhee made his UFC debut on just a few days notice and shocked me by stuffing Newson’s take downs, knocking Newson down and submitting him with a choke. Crazy. So McGhee could be pretty good. He out struck Newson 21 to 12, but the sample size is too small for me to grade his striking a 65. Yet. I wouldn’t be too surprised if the fight and striking is close, but I do think there’s a 50/50 chance McGhee has 65 striking and he should land more to get the win.
Chris’ Pick: McGhee by decision.
What I think the odds should be: McGhee -150
Terrance McKinney vs Mike Breeden
- Terrance McKinney
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Frevola and an 11-3 grappler. Submitted Fares Ziam.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Mike Breeden
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 10-5
- UFC Record: 0-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 3-2 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-2 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I was really surprised McKinney went into the Nazim Sadykhov fight as the underdog. I thought McKinney would take him down, that it’d be the safe route. He did. Got in a dominate body triangle. But went too hard going for the submission in the 1st round. Gassed out by the 2nd round and he had nothing left. But I’m still confident McKinney has 70 grappling from what he’s done to Erick Gonzalez and Ziam. His issue is that blitzes too much, isn’t efficient with how he uses his energy. Now he’s taking this fight with Breeden on less than two weeks notice. But he should be better everywhere. Especially having the ability to take Breeden down.
Chris’ Pick: McKinney by 1st round submission.
What I think the odds should be: McKinney -500
Francis Marshall vs Isaac Dulgarian
- Francis Marshall
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to William Gomis.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marcelo Rojo. Submitted a 4-0 striker. Beat a 5-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Isaac Dulgarian
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-2 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Turns out Dulgarian might be pretty good. All 5 of his pro wins are 1st round finishes, 3 KO’s, 2 submissions. He’s never fought longer than 3 minutes. And up until his last fight, you could say he’s never taken on any quality opponents. But his last fight, he took on a 7-2 striker and knocked him out in about a minute. So it’s hard to know how good he is, I just haven’t seen enough of him, but I’d say it’s decently likely his tools are at least 60’s. Maybe 65’s. Marshall closed as a -195 favorite over William Gomis. Market thought Marshall would be able to get take downs and win with top control but that proved not to be the case. But I think that’s more of a product of Gomis’ wrestling being better than we thought. Gomis also out struck Marshall 27 to 13 so it’s possible Marshall’s striking could be a 55, but the more plausible scenario is Gomis having 65 striking. Coin flip fight. Marshall will probably mix in some take downs but I’m giving Dulgarian a slight edge because I’m more confident his striking is a 60 and I know he has more power.
Chris’ Pick: Dulgarian by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Dulgarian -125
Martin Buday vs Josh Parisian
- Martin Buday
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 12-1
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-1 striker. Beat Jake Collier and Chris Barnett. Split decision over Lukas Brzeski.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Josh Parisian
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Wins: Knocked Alan Baudot, out a 6-1 striker, and a 24-8 striker. Split decision over Roque Martinez.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Parisian’s wrestling has improved a little bit but I still have him as a 55. I think Buday will follow the blueprint laid out by Jamal Pogues. 1st round could be dicey, but Parisian should run out of gas halfway through.
Chris’ Pick: Buday by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Buday -175
Montserrat Conejo vs Jaqueline Amorim
- Montserrat Conejo
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 10-3 striker. Beat Cheyanne Buys and a 7-2 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Jaqueline Amorim
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
This is Conejo’s first fight in 2 years. And it’s possible I’m under rating her grappling. Could be a 65. And it’s hard to tell how good Amorim’s grappling is. The tool looked like a 70 in the 1st round of the Sam Hughes fight. All 6 of her wins have been 1st round finishes. She really blitzes. But Hughes escaped the 1st round and Amorim had no gas in the tank the rest of the fight. So what does her grappling look like if she doesn’t go as hard early on? It’s probably a 65, but we’ll see. But I actually see most of this fight playing out on the feet where we’ll see Amorim show superior striking.
Chris’ Pick: Amorim by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Amorim -225
Jose Johnson vs Da’Mon Blackshear
- Jose Johnson
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 15-7
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 2-1 grappler. Lost to a well rounded 3-1 fighter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-2 fighter, a 4-1 wrestler, a well rounded 11-2 fighter, and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Submitted a 6-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 10-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Da’Mon Blackshear
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 13-5-1
- UFC Record: 1-1-1
- Key Draws: Fought to majority draw with Youssef Zalal.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Luan Lacerda. Submitted Aalon Cruz, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 5-2 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 5-1 fighter and a 5-1 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Blackshear pulled an upset over Lacerda, as Lacerda closed as a -145 favorite. Didn’t surprise me as I picked Blackshear but the thing that did surprise me was Blackshear had a lot more power than I thought. Johnson’s fight on the Contender with Jack Cartwright surprisingly turned into a grappling contest, with both probably thinking the other would gas out, but instead it was back and forth and the cardio held up. So being that Johnson’s cardio looked good, I don’t think he’ll struggle that much taking this fight on less than a week’s notice. But I do think Blackshear is better everywhere.
Chris’ Pick: Blackshear by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Blackshear -250
Juliana Miller vs Luana Santos
- Juliana Miller
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 3-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brogan Walker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Luana Santos
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Okay, so I can accept that Veronica Hardy leveled up in her absence from the UFC. She was able to not only stuff take downs from Miller, but also dominated Miller on the ground. But I can’t accept still thinking Miller has 65 grappling. Got to down grade that tool to a 60. Santos was really impressive in her last fight. Took on a 4-1 grappler who I thought had 55 grappling and Santos was in cruise control for nearly the full 15 minutes. I’m pretty that Santos has the better grappling and is more like to do better on the feet as well.
Chris’ Pick: Santos by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Santos -175