Rafael Fiziev vs Mateusz Gamrot
- Rafael Fiziev
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Justin Gaethje.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Rafael dos Anjos, Brad Riddell, and Renato Moicano. Beat Bobby Green and Marc Diakiese.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Mateusz Gamrot
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Diego Ferreira, Scott Holtzman, Norman Parke, a well rounded 9-1-1 fighter, a 16-0-1 grappler, and a 15-3 striker. Submitted Jeremy Stephens and a 9-1 grappler. Beat Arman Tsarukyan, a 12-3-1 wrestler, a 24-4 grappler, a 21-7 grappler, and a 12-3 grappler. Split decision over Jalin Turner.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
This fight comes down to Fiziev’s power vs Gamrot’s wrestling and cardio. I know Fiziev went 5 rounds with dos Anjos, but Gamrot’s a tier above. I do see Fiziev slowing down in the 2nd half of the fight. Gamrot has proven to be durable. But it’s close to a coin flip where I wouldn’t be surprised if the judges give it to Fiziev for landing more damage.
Chris’ Pick: Gamrot by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Gamrot -125
Bryce Mitchell vs Dan Ige
- Bryce Mitchell
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Matt Sayles. Beat Edson Barboza, Andre Fili, Charles Rosa, and Bobby Moffett.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Dan Ige
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 10-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Damon Jackson and Gavin Tucker. Knocked down Danny Henry and submitted him. Beat Nate Landwehr and Kevin Aguilar. Split decision wins over Mirsad Bektic and Edson Barboza.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
If Mitchell’s grappling is only a 70, then this could be a close fight. But despite the loss to Topuria, I still think it’s a 75 tool and because of that, I see Mitchell having the ability to take Ige down and eventually submit him.
Chris’ Pick: Mitchell by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Mitchell -200
Marina Rodriguez vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez
- Marina Rodriguez
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 7-3-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Carla Esparza
- Key Draws: Fought Randa Markos and Cynthia Calvillo to draws.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Amanda Ribas. Beat Mackenzie Dern, Michelle Waterson, and Tecia Torres. Split decision over Xiaonan Yan.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Michelle Waterson-Gomez
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 6-7
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Luana Pinheiro and Carla Esparza.
- Key Wins: Submitted Paige VanZant. Beat Felice Herrig and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Split decision over Angela Hill.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Waterson-Gomez losing to Luana Pinheiro had more to do with how good Pinheiro has become vs Waterson-Gomez regressing. That said, Rodriguez is a horrible matchup for her.
Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Rodriguez -200
Bryan Battle vs AJ Fletcher
- Bryan Battle
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gabe Green and Takashi Sato. Submitted a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Beat Tresean Gore.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- AJ Fletcher
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Themba Gorimbo. Knocked out a 10-2 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Yes, Battle knocked out Gabe Green in 14 seconds. That’s great. But was that luck or did he actually show up improved. Sample size obviously too small. Could be a close fight, Fletcher will probably want to get Battle to the ground. Fletcher’s cardio will be tested. But Battle should win, because he’ll land more on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Battle by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Battle -135
Charles Jourdain vs Ricardo Ramos
- Charles Jourdain
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 5-5-1
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Shane Burgos.
- Key Draws: Split draw to an 8-1 strike
- Key Wins: Knocked out Doo Ho Choi. Submitted Lando Vannata and a 9-3 striker. Beat Kron Gracie and Andre Ewell.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Ricardo Ramos
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Luiz Garagorri. Beat Bill Algeo and Journey Newsom. Knocked out Danny Chavez. Split decision win over Kyung Ho Kang.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Ramos proved his had 65 striking in his fight with Zubaira Tukhugov. And after knocking Chavez out in about a minute, I think his power is up to a 65 now too. Only his 2nd knockout in the UFC in 10 UFC fights, so I could be wrong.
Chris’ Pick: Jourdain by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Jourdain -200
Miles Johns vs Dan Argueta
- Miles Johns
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 5-0 striker. Beat Vince Morales, a 7-1 grappler, a well rounded 11-3 fighter, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Knocked out Kevin Natividad. Split decision over Cole Smith and a 7-2 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Dan Argueta
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 12-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Split decision over a 14-6 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Johns came into his last fight with Morales as a -175 favorite and was supposed to out strike him. Instead the strikes landed were close to equal, but I think it had more to do with Morales elevating his striking tool. I wouldn’t be too shocked if Johns got the KO here, but if he doesn’t, Argueta should win with superior wrestling and the cardio to utilize it for a full 15 minutes if he has to.
Chris’ Pick: Argueta by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Argueta -125
Tim Means vs Andre Fialho
- Tim Means
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 12-10 at 170 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Max Griffin.
- Key Wins: Beat Nicholas Dalby, Mike Perry, and Laureano Staropoli.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Andre Fialho
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 2-4
- Key Losses: Lost to an 8-4 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Miguel Baeza, a well rounded 11-3 fighter, a 6-1 striker, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, and another well rounded 7-1 fighter. Majority decision over a 10-4 grappler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I’m convinced Joaquin Buckley has 70 striking, as he out landed Nassourdine Imavov 44 to 36. So yes, Fialho was knocked out in his last fight with Buckley, but up to that point, the striking was close to equal. So it appears Fialho’s striking has leveled up to a 70 grade.
Chris’ Pick: Fialho by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Fialho -275
Jacob Malkoun vs Cody Brundage
- Jacob Malkoun
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Beat Nick Maximov, AJ Dobson, and Abdul Razak Alhassan.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Cody Brundage
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 2-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tresean Gore. Submitted Dalcha Lungiambula and a 4-1 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Brundage steps in on less than 2 weeks notice and I don’t see how he beats Malkoun. Brundage was out wrestled by Sedriques Dumas last time out. Malkoun is way ahead of him in the stand up.
Chris’ Pick: Malkoun by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Malkoun -400
Mohammed Usman vs Jake Collier
- Mohammed Usman
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Zac Pauga and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Submitted a 4-1 striker. Beat Junior Tafa and a 5-2 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Jake Collier
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 2-5 at heavyweight. 5-7 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Andrei Arlovski.
- Key Wins: Submitted Chase Sherman. Knocked out a well rounded 9-0 fighter. Beat Gian Villante and a 9-2 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
Usman won his last fight because Tafa’s wrestling is an average 50 grade. He’s not going to be able to take Collier down, will stand and trade. And as long as Collier doesn’t get knocked out, he should out strike Usman.
Chris’ Pick: Collier by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Collier -175
Mizuki Inoue vs Hannah Goldy
- Mizuki Inoue
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 14-6
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Beat Viviane Pereira. Split decision over Yanan Wu.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55).
- Hannah Goldy
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Emily Whitmire. Beat Gillian Robertson and a 6-2 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
This is Mizuki’s first fight in 3 years. Her last opponent was Amanda Lemos and amazingly, Mizuki closed as a -135 favorite. Not only that, but going into that fight, I know Lemos’ wrestling was at least a 60 as she was able to take down and submit MIranda Granger. Also amazing is that the striking was close to equal. So Mizuki’s close loss to Lemos has certainly aged well. Mizuki is better everywhere and with margin.
Chris’ Pick: Mizuki by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Mizuki -500
Tamires Vidal vs Montserrat Rendon
- Tamires Vidal
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ramona Pascual. Submitted a 4-1 wrestler. Beat a 4-1 grappler and a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Montserrat Rendon
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 5-0
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: below average (40)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Vidal’s fight with Pascual didn’t last long, but it was long enough for me to see her wrestling is on par with Pascual and thus a 60 grade. It’s also possible that Vidal’s striking could be a 55 as the striking between her and Pascual was close to equal, 13 to 10, but it’s a small sample, so I’m going to leave her striking as a 60. I know Rendon is supposed to be this wrestler. All 5 of her wins have come by decision. I watched her last fight against a 4-4 wrestler and I wasn’t that impressed. I mean, it’s possible Rendon’s wrestling could be a 60, but I doubt it. No way Rendon will be able to get Vidal down and Vidal will be too much on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Vidal by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Vidal -350