Bobby Green vs Grant Dawson
- Bobby Green
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 9-9-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Rashid Magomedov.
- Key Wins: Submitted Tony Ferguson. Knocked out Al Iaquinta. Beat Nasrat Haqparast, Alan Patrick, Lando Vannata and Erik Koch.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grant Dawson
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 9-0-1
- Key draws: Fought Ricky Glenn to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Leonardo Santos. Submitted Mark O. Madsen, Jared Gordon, and Michael Trizano. Beat Damir Ismagulov and Nad Narimani.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Ultimately, Ismagulov’s wrestling is probably a 65. I don’t think Dawson’s wrestling is a top of the scale 80, but a 75 grade? No doubt about it. I expect Dawson to be able to take Green down just like he took Ismagulov down. Almost a mismatch, considering Dawson has the cardio to wrestle all fight.
Chris’ Pick: Dawson by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Dawson -350
Joe Pyfer vs Abdul Razak Alhassan
- Joseph Pyfer
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 5-3 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gerald Meerschaert, Alen Amedovski, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, and a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Abdul Razak Alhassan
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Joaquin Buckley and Omari Akhmedov.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Claudio Ribeiro, Alessio di Chirico, and Niko Price.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I know Pyfer will be coming in as the favorite and the hot prospect, but he shouldn’t be a big favorite. Yes, he knocked 60 striker Meerschaert out, but up to the KO, Meerschaert out struck him 10 to 6. Small sample, but no evidence Pyfer’s striking tool has improved beyond a 60 grade. So on the feet, this could be a coin flip. But I’m still picking Pyfer because of his ability to mix take downs and change Alhassan’s eye levels.
Chris’ Pick: Pyfer by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Pyfer -175
Joaquin Buckley vs Alex Morono
- Joaquin Buckley
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Fialho, Antonio Arroyo, Jordan Wright, Impa Kasanganay, a 4-0 grappler, a 9-3 grappler, and an 8-2 grappler. Beat a 9-2 wrestler. Split decision wins over Abdul Razak Alhassan and a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Alex Morono
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 12-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Keita Nakamura.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Donald Cerrone and Zak Ottow. Beat Tim Means, Matthew Semelsberger, Mickey Gall, David Zawada, Kenan Song, and Max Griffin.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Buckley’s striking with Fialho last time out was close to equal, but I think that had more to do with Fialho’s striking improving to a 70 grade. I’m very confident Nassourdine Imavov’s striking is a 70. Which means Buckley should be able to KO Morono.
Chris’ Pick: Buckley by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Buckley -275
Drew Dober vs Ricky Glenn
- Drew Dober
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 12-8
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bobby Green, Terrance McKinney, Alexander Hernandez, and Nasrat Haqparast. Beat Scott Holtzman.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Ricky Glenn
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 4-4-1
- Key Draws: Fought Grant Dawson to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Joaquin Silva. Beat Gavin Tucker. Split decision wins over Dennis Bermudez and Phillipe Nover.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Glenn got knocked out quick by someone in Christos Giagos who isn’t really known for his power. Dober has even more power.
Chris’ Pick: Dober by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Dober -250
Alexander Hernandez vs Bill Algeo
- Alexander Hernandez
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Beneil Dariush and Chris Greutzemacher. Beat Jim Miller, Oliver Aubin-Mercier, and Francisco Trinaldo.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Bill Algeo
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Wins: Submitted TJ Brown. Knocked out Herbert Burns and a 27-8 grappler. Beat Joanderson Brito, Spike Carlyle, a 5-1 striker and a well rounded 11-4 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I do think Hernandez has unlocked more power in his hands lately and that should be the difference in the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Hernandez by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Hernandez -175
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Diana Belbita
- Karolina Kowalkiewicz
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 8-7
- Key Losses: Submitted by Claudia Gadelha.
- Key Wins: Submitted Felice Herrig. Beat Vanessa Demopoulos, Silvana Juarez, and Randa Markos. Split decision over Rose Namajunas in 2016.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Diana Belbita
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Wins: Beat Maria Oliveira and Hannah Goldy. Majority decision win over a 0-2 fighter in 2017.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
The market closed with Belbita and Maria Oliveira as a near pick em. I disagreed, thought Belbita’s striking was only a 60, but I was wrong. The tool is definitely a 65. Her wrestling has also really improved as she got the better of Oliveira there too. Kowalkiewicz has a chance as I think she’ll be able to take Belbita down, but Belbita is going to have such a giant power advantage. I think she gets Kowalkiewicz out.
Chris’ Pick: Belbita by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Belbita -175
Qileng Aori vs Johnny Munoz Jr
- Qileng Aori
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key WIns: Submitted a 9-2 striker. Knocked out Cameron Else and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Jay Perrin and a 5-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Johnny Munoz Jr
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: above average (60)
I had Munoz Jr’s grappling a 65 going into his fight with Daniel Santos, but after Santos was able to take Munoz Jr down and control him for most of the fight, I have no choice but to downgrade the tool to a 60. But I give Qileng a slight edge because I think most of the fight will be on the feet where he’ll land more.
Chris’ Pick: Qileng by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Qileng -125
Kanako Murata vs Vanessa Demopoulos
- Kanako Murata
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 12-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 7-2 striker. Beat Randa Markos and a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Vanessa Demopoulos
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Silvana Juarez and Sam Hughes. Knocked out a 5-2 striker. Beat Maria Oliveira.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Murata returns for her first fight in over 2 years. She’ll probably show up improved even though she was nursing an injury. So I give her a slight edge for that reason.
Chris’ Pick: Murata by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Murata -135
Mateus Mendonca vs Nate Maness
- Mateus Mendonca
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-0 wrestler and a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Knocked out a 6-1 striker. Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter and a 21-5 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Nathan Maness
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Luke Sanders. Knocked Tony Gravely, out a well rounded 4-0 fighter, and a 15-4 grappler. Beat a 10-0 grappler and a 4-0 grappler. Split decision over a 6-0 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
In Maness’ last fight with Tagir Ulanbekov, the Ulanbekov closed as a -225 favorite. Because the market thought Maness has 60 striking and 65 wrestling. I disagreed though. Thought Ulanbekov should be a -500 favorite. Unfortunately for Maness, the fight was over in 2 minutes so it’s hard to say if I was right or not. So I’m sticking to where I had Maness’ tools graded the last time, but I’m open to the possibility that I could be under rating him.
Chris’ Pick: Mendonca by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Mendonca -250
Montana de la Rosa vs JJ Aldrich
- Montana de la Rosa
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 6-5-1
- Key Draws: Fought Mayra Bueno Silva to a majority draw,
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ariane Lipski. Submitted Nadia Kassem. Beat Mara Romero Borella.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- JJ Aldrich
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 8-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Na LIang. Beat Gillian Robertson, Vanessa Demopoulos, Polyana Viana, and Lauren Mueller. Split decision over Cortney Casey.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Aldrich steps in on about two weeks notice but that shouldn’t be a problem. Her wrestling neutralizes de la Rosa’s best weapon. Fight should be on the feet where Aldrich is better.
Chris’ Pick: Aldrich by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Aldrich -250