Derrick Lewis vs Jailton Almeida
- Derrick Lewis
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 18-9
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Chris Daukaus, Curtis Blaydes, Alexei Oleinik, Shamil Abdurakhimov, Travis Browne, and Alexander Volkov. Beat Francis Ngannou.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Jailton Almeida
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shamil Abdurakhimov and Danilo Marques. Submitted Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Anton Turkalj, Parker Porter, a 9-0 wrestler, and a 19-4 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
This fight is pretty straight forward. Lewis is going to have one shot at the start of the fight to knock Almeida out. And he could, he might. He has a chance. But if he swings and misses, Almeida takes him down and will get the submission within a couple minutes.
Chris’ Pick: Almeida by 1st round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Almeida -400
Gabriel Bonfim vs Nicolas Dalby
- Gabriel Bonfim
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 15-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Trevin GIles, Mounir Lazzez, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, a well rounded 6-2-1 fighter and a well rounded 13-3 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 8-0 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Nicolas Dalby
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 6-3-1
- Key Draws: Fought Darren Till to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Beat Muslim Salikhov, Claudio Silva, Daniel Rodriguez, and Alex Oliveira. Split decisions over Warlley Alves and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
It doesn’t happen often, but at 38 years of age, Dalby showed improvement. I know with 100% certainty that Salikhov’s striking is not worse than a 65 and the striking with Dalby was close to equal. And Dalby also leveled his wrestling up to a 65. And Dalby poses a unique challenge to Bonfim. In all 27 of Dalby’s pro fights, he’s never been finished. Bonfim, he’s won all 15 of his fights by finish. But. What’s unique about Bonfim is only 8 of his 15 finishes have come in the 1st round. So he’s not getting all these finishes by blitzing opponents early and emptying the gas tank. Dalby is durable and he’s going to test Bonfim’s cardio, but Bonfim should win.
Chris’ PIck: Bonfim by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Bonfim -175
Rodrigo Nascimento vs Don’Tale Mayes
- Rodrigo Nascimento
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Don’tale Mayes and a 7-0 striker. Split decision wins over Ilir Latifi and Tanner Boser.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Don’tale Mayes
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-5
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Allen Crowder. Split decision loss to Hamdy Abdelwahab.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Arlovski, Josh Parisian, a 10-1 grappler, and a 4-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I had Mayes’ striking as a 60 going into the Arlovski fight, but the striking turned out to be close to equal. And I’m not about to revisit that whole Arvloski’s striking is still a 65 idea, so I have no choice but to downgrade Mayes striking to a 60. And with Nascimento, I upgraded his striking to a 65 as he landed more strikes against Latifi. Mayes has a path to win this fight. He has more power. But Nascimento is more likely to win.
Chris’ Pick: Nascimento by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Nascimento -175
Caio Borralho vs Abus Magomedov
- Caio Borralho
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-3 grappler. Submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk and a well rounded 5-2 fighter. Beat Makhmud Muradov, Armen Petrosyan, Gadzhi Omargadzhiev, a 10-2 striker, and a 7-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Abusupiyan Magomedov
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 25-4-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dustin Stolztfus, Jessin Ayari, an 11-2 striker, a well rounded 15-5 fighter, and a 10-3 grappler. Submitted a 12-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
In one of the more unusual fights you’ll see in the UFC, Magomedov out struck Sean Strickland 32 to 11 in the 1st round. Dominant. But then. Strickland flipped the switch and swarmed Magomedov, out striking him 56 to 15 in the 2nd round before getting the TKO finish. So was Strickland holding back in the 1st round, wanting Magomedov to gas himself out? Maybe. And pair this fight with Magomedov’s UFC debut that lasted only 19 seconds. Means we still don’t know for sure how good he really is. Magomedov is a live underdog here, he could knock Borralho out while the fight is on the feet, but I didn’t like the lack of cardio I saw in the Strickland fight and think that Borralho does have the gas tank to take Magomedov down as many times as he needs to.
Chris’ Pick: Borralho by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Borralho -135
Rodolfo Vieira vs Armen Petrosyan
- Rodolfo Vieira
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Cody Brundage, Dustin Stoltzfus, Oskar Piechota, Saparbek Safarov, and a well rounded 10-0 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Armen Petrosyan
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-0 striker and a 7-0 wrestler and a 4-1 grappler. Beat Christian Leroy Duncan and AJ Dobson. Split decision over Gregory Rodrigues.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Petrosyan’s last fight with Duncan has made me start to question whether his striking tool is really a 70. I thought Duncan had 65 striking going in, but the striking in the fight was close to equal. Being that the market had Duncan as a -165 favorite, I think what happened is Duncan is that good, with 70 striking as well. Could be wrong though. And I also think Petrosyan improved his wrestling to a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Petrosyan by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Petrosyan -200
Elvis Brener vs Kaynan Kruschewsky
- Elves Brener
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 15-3
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Losses: Lost to a 10-7 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Guram Kutateladze. Submitted a 7-0 grappler, a 5-2 wrestler, and a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Split decision over Zubaira Tukhugov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Kaynan Kruschewsky
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 15-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 12-5 striker. Lost to a well rounded 18-4-3 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Knocked out a 5-1 striker, an 8-3 wrestler, and an 8-3 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Kruschewsky takes this fight on a week’s notice. And he’s not going to have much of a chance.
Chris’ Pick: Brener by 1st round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Brener -450
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs Rinat Fakheretdinov
- Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 10-3
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Muslim Salikhov and Nicholas Dalby.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Omari Akhmedov and Sean Strickland. Beat Benoit St. Denis and Alexey Kunchenko. Split decision wins over Abubakar Nurmagomedov and Lyman Good.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Rinat Fakhretdinov
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 21-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Kevin Lee and a well rounded 13-2 fighter. Beat Andreas Michailidis.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Nurmagomedov had some success in the clinch with Zaleski dos Santos. Fakheretdinov is an even better wrestling and has the cardio to use it for all 3 rounds.
Chris’ Pick: Fakheretdinov by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Fakheretdinov -250
Vitor Petrino vs Modestas Bukauskas
- Vitor Petrino
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 9-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Rodolfo Bellato twice and Gadzhimurad Antigulov. Submitted Marcin Prachnio. Beat Anton Turkalj
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Modestas Bukauskas
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Michal Oleksiejczuk.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andreas Michaildis, a well rounded 5-0 fighter and an 8-1 striker. Beat Zac Pauga and Tyson Pedro.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Coin flip fight, especially because of the power that both guys have, but I think Petrino is going to mix some take downs in and his striking is closer to a 70, so I give him an edge.
Chris’ Pick: Petrino by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Petrino -175
Angela Hill vs Denise Gomes
- Angela Hill
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 9-10
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Amanda Lemos, Michelle Waterson, and Claudia Gadelha.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hannah Cifers. Beat Emily Ducote, Loopy Godinez, Ashley Yoder, and Maryna Moroz. Split decision win over Livinha Souza.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Denise Gomes
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Yazmin Jauregui, Bruna Brasil, a well rounded 3-0 fighter, and a 3-0 striker. Beat a 3-0-1 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Gomes has huge upside as her power is enormous for 115 lbs. It’s possible that Hill mixes some take downs in and tries to slow Gomes down, tire her out. But I think they’ll be on the feet long enough for Gomes to catch her.
Chris’ PIck: Gomes by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Gomes -135
Eduarda Moura vs Montserrat Conejo Ruiz
- Eduarda Moura
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 9-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key WIns: Submitted a 5-0 striker. Knocked out a 6-3 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Montserrat Conejo Ruiz
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 10-3
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 10-3 striker. Beat Cheyanne Buys and a 7-2 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
I was blown away by how good Moura is. She came into the Contender, thought she’d be in a coin flip type fight. But instead she made it look easy, just like how her team mate Jailton Almeida makes it look easy. She took on Janaina Silva and it only took Moura one take down and four minutes on the ground to finish the fight. I feel bad for Ruiz because she was completely out classed by a future title contender in Jaqueline Amorim. Now she’s got to face another.
Chris’ Pick: Moura by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Moura -600
Kaue Fernandes vs Marc Diakiese
- Kaue Fernandes
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-1 wrestler. Knocked out a 19-5 striker, a 6-0 wrestler, and a well rounded 9-1 fighter. Beat a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Marc Diakiese
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-7
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Drakkar Klose.
- Key Wins: Beat Damir Hadzovic, Viacheslav Borshchev,, Joseph Duffy, and Lando Vannata.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Fernandes is interesting because his lone career loss comes with an asterisk. He took on a well rounded 8-0 fighter. Fernandes dominated the 1st round, took the opponent down, almost finished the fight. But he emptied the gas tank trying to get the finish. Then by half way through the 2nd round, his gas tank hit empty and had nothing left. I want to grade Fernandes’ wrestling a 65 based on what I saw in the 1st round and it could be that, but I have it as a 60 for now because I question his cardio and whether he could wrestle for 15 minutes if he had to.
Chris’ Pick: Fernandes by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Fernandes -135