#8 Stefan Struve (9-3) vs. #9 Mark Hunt (3-1)
Pick: Stefan Struve – Mark Hunt has been on a roll. He knocked off Cheick Kongo. It was impressive. But Mark Hunt is one dimensional. People forget that in Hunt’s first fight in the UFC, Sean McCorkle took Hunt down and submitted him pretty easy. Like a fish out of water. Struve won’t have any problems here. He’ll make it look easier than it should be.
#6 Yushin Okami (12-4) vs. #23 Hector Lombard (1-1)
Pick: Yushin Okami – Okami has quietly established himself as one of the best middleweights in the world. He got outclassed by Anderson Silva, but everybody does. He was dominating Tim Boestsch and really let that one get away. If Lombard thought he had problems with Boestch stifling him, just wait until Yushin gets a hold of him. Oh, and Okami will be able to fight on his home turf without flying halfway around the world. A big perk he’s not used to.
#7 Diego Sanchez (3-1) vs. #27 Takanori Gomi (3-3)
Pick: Diego Sanchez – Diego Sanchez came wickedly close to coming back on Jake Ellenberger and beating him. And he does have a win over Martin Kampmann recently. Diego is also the guy that pretty easily deposed of Clay Guida pretty quickly at lightweight. Sanchez abandoned lightweight too quickly because he lost to BJ Penn, but 155 lbs is where he belongs. Takanori Gomo has actually improved alot but he isn’t on Sanchez’s level. Diego will take down Gomi and ground and pound his way to a decision.
#16 Dong Hyun Kim (7-2) vs. #30 Siyar Bahadurzada (1-0)
Pick: Dong Hyun Kim – Just think of Kim as a slightly lighter version of Yushin Okami. They’re very similar and very under rated. I wouldn’t be too surprised if Bahadurzada pulled the upset but he’s just too unknown. He has a great resume on the regional scene, but Kim is easily the best fighter he’s ever faced.
#16 Rani Yahya (6-4) vs. Mizuto Hirota (0-0)
Pick: Rani Yahya – Hirota really surprised me and impressed me with a close decision loss in Strikeforce to Pat Healy. Now fighting at his more natural weight of 145 lbs, he should be even more formidable. But Yahya is a top featherweight that the casual fans don’t know about. He’s had wins over Mike Brown and Mark Hominick back when they were really good. Yahya should pull out a close fight.
#25 Brian Stann (4-2) vs. #38 Wanderlei Silva (2-3)
Pick: Brian Stann – Wanderlei Silva is old. I know people like him, but he’s had a hundred thousand fights by now. He’s just trying to hang on and fight for as long as he can in the UFC. That’s what he’s fighting for. Brian Stann isn’t great and probably will never fight for the title because of his deficiency in wrestling, but he’s definitely good enough to beat Wanderlei.
#12 Bryan Caraway (2-0) vs. #21 Takeya Mizugaki (5-5)
Pick: Bryan Caraway – Bryan Caraway started off in slow, underwhelming fashion in the WEC, who looked like he was destined for journeymandom, Caraway in starting to show signs of contendership instead. Mitch Gagnon is a solid prospect and Caraway knocked him off pretty handily. Mizugaki is a good gatekeeper, but I see Caraway rolling with his slick submission game.
#13 Brad Tavares (4-1) vs. #30 Riki Fukuda (2-2)
Pick: Brad Tavares – Fukuda is a very solid fighter with good wrestling, but Tavares has been phenomenal in the UFC so far. Brad’s only blemish was getting taken down over and over again by Aaron Simpson. Riki Fukuda isn’t nearly the wrestler he is. Tavares will win with more technical striking.
#18 Alex Caceres (3-1) vs. Kyung Ho Kang (0-0)
Pick: Alex Caceres – Nobody really took “Bruce Leeroy” seriously when he was on the Ultimate Fighter, but Caceres has quietly carved out a nice career at bantamweight. I’ve heard good things about Kang as a prospect, but every time I see Alex fight, he gets better. And Kang has 6 losses outside the UFC to guys I don’t think are any good.
#41 Cristiano Marcello (1-1) vs. Kazuki Tokudome (0-0)
Pick: Cristiano Marcello – With all due respect to both guys, this is the least relevant fight on the card and really neither is good enough to stick in the UFC. Marcello should have been cut after losing to Reza Madadi, but alas the judges gave him new life. Tokudome is a below average prospect. And Marcello has a superior game everywhere.
#43 Marcelo Guimaraes (1-0) vs. Hyun Gyu Lim (0-0)
Pick: Hyun Gyu Lim – To me, this is the hardest fight to pick. Lim trains with the Korean Zombie. Guimaraes is a former Jungle Fight champion. Both I think are pretty good. But Guimaraes was very underwhelming in his UFC debut. And Lim has been on a tear in the regional Japaneese scene. I think hometown advantage is enough to push the fight to Lim’s favor.