#1 Georges St. Pierre (17-2) vs. #6 Nick Diaz (16-6)
Pick: Georges St. Pierre – Full disclosure. I want Nick Diaz to win. While I don’t think Diaz is that great of a person or deserves to be champion, he sure is entertaining and brings a level of intrigue to fights that hasn’t been seen in the welterweight division in a long time. But I just don’t see a pathway for Nick to win. GSP is likely to stand and trade with Diaz for a little bit, but if GSP is getting out struck, he’ll just take Diaz down. And it’s not like Diaz has displayed knockout power with a couple punches before. And it’s not likely Diaz will be able to submit GSP from his back. So I see the fight being exciting at least in the first round, Nick scoring some punches, GSP taking Diaz down and just ground and pounding. Repeat for 5 rounds.
#2 Johny Hendricks (11-1) vs. #3 Carlos Condit (10-2)
Pick: Johny Hendricks – This is the toughest fight to pick on the card. I really do see a possibility that this fight plays out similar to Condit vs. Nick Diaz where Condit punches, runs away, runs away, counter punches, runs away. This is likely going to be his game plan going into the fight. But I think that in 15 minutes, Hendricks is going to catch him. Hendrick’s hot streak gets Johny a big advantage in the confidence department. When Condit was running away from Diaz, Nick did catch Carlos a couple times. All Hendricks needs is one left hand.
#5 Jake Ellenberger (7-2) vs. #19 Nate Marquardt (2-1)
Pick: Jake Ellenberger – It wasn’t too long ago when Jake Ellenberger was on the verge of getting a title shot against interim champion Carlos Condit. Jake had big wins over Jake Shields and Diego Sanchez. But then Condit decided he was going to sit on the interim belt and just wait for a fight with GSP. Then Ellenberger fought Martin Kampmann, got knocked out and now finds himself on the outside looking in. And then you have a fight with the #2 welterweight in the world in Hendricks and that was taken from you too. I see Jake fighting with a chip on his shoulder and Marquardt looked absolutely horrible in his fight with Tarec Saffiedine. I’ll be surprised if Ellenberger doesn’t finish.
#16 Chris Camozzi (5-2) vs. #17 Nick Ring (3-1)
Pick: Chris Camozzi – Both guys are fighting for a chance to fight a top 10 middleweight next time out. I thought Ring lost against Riki Fukuda. I thought he lost against Court McGee. But the judges disagreed with me and gave Ring both fights. And Fukuda and McGee aren’t world beaters. Camozzi is very under rated and very much improved. I think Chris will get it done.
Mike Ricci (0-0) vs. Colin Fletcher (0-1)
Pick: Mike Ricci – This fight really shouldn’t be on the main card of a pay per view. But it is because the UFC is running a business and they want to build up Ricci in Canada as being a big deal. Don’t know how well Ricci will do in the shark tank known as the UFC’s lightweight division, but I do know that Mike is better than Fletcher everywhere. Ricci has the experience and the tools to finish fighters. Fletcher looked average on the Ultimate Fighter and I’m not sure he’ll be able to stick around.
#14 Darren Elkins (4-0) vs. #23 Antonio Carvalho (2-1)
Pick: Darren Elkins – Elkins has quietly been putting together a solid streak at featherweight beating some quality guys. I don’t see Carvalho offering Elkins anything new or better to the table. Carvalho is a good fighter, but Elkins advantage in wrestling will be too overwhelming.
#26 Bobby Voelker (3-1) vs. Patrick Cote (0-0)
Pick: Bobby Voelker – Cote is making his debut at welterweight and hoping for a new lease on life in the UFC. But Voelker is one of the best welterweights no one has heard about and has solid knockout power. It’ll be an entertaining fight, but if Alessio Sakara can knock Cote around silly, imagine what someone like Voelker, who is still in his prime, can do.
#27 John Makdessi (3-2) vs. #36 Daron Cruickshank (2-0)
Pick: Daron Cruickshank – The lightweights from the Ultimate Fighter Live season continue to do well, especially Cruickshank. I want to pick Makdessi in this fight, especially after the way he looked against Sam Stout, but Makdessi has been very inconsistent and lost to guys he really shouldn’t lose to. This fight is likely to take place on the feet and Cruickshank is better in that area.
#43 Dan Miller (1-0) vs. #47 Jordan Mein (2-1)
Pick: Jordan Mein – Mark my words, Jordan Mein will not only stick around in the UFC, he will also be a possible contender for the title. I love what he’s done as a fighter and I’ve watched him over the years grow and become a more complete mixed martial artist. Miller is good and should be a respectable gate keeper at welterweight, but Mein is too skilled. Mein will impress.
#18 TJ Dillashaw (2-1) vs. #29 Issei Tamura (1-1)
Pick: TJ Dillashaw – Poor Tamura. He’s going to get destroyed here. 1st round finish for Dillashaw.
#21 Reuben Duran (1-2) vs. #30 George Roop (0-1)
Pick: Reuben Duran – Roop has had flashes of brilliance in the past in knockouts over the Korean Zombie and Josh Grispi, but I think Roop is just a guy that has knockout power who will knock someone out when they’re not executing technical striking. Duran is one of those guys that does have more technical striking and quickness and I see Duran pulling out the win.
#28 Quinn Mulhern (3-1) vs. #30 Rick Story (7-4)
Pick: Rick Story – Story is an elite fighter that has just had a string of bad luck lately. Story is the only guy who’s giving Johny Hendricks his only loss in his career. Story also beat Thiago Alves. But then lost to top welterweights in Martin Kampmann and Demian Maia. Mulhern will do well in the UFC and possibly contend down the road, but Story has fought the best of the best and he’s too young to not be better from it and maybe make a run himself.