Vitor Petrino vs Rodolfo Bellato
- Vitor Petrino
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Rodolfo Bellato and Gadzhimurad Antigulov.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: average (50)
- Rodolfo Bellato
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 8-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-1 striker. Submitted a 5-1 striker and an 11-4 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
This is actually a rematch. Both fought back in 2019 and Petrino knocked Bellato out in 25 seconds. Also significant is that Bellato was the prospect at that time, was 5-0. And Petrino was making his pro debut. But Bellato has really improved since then. Particularly his last two fights in the LFA were impressive. He took on a 5-1 striker with 55 striking and 50 wrestling. Bellato got the better of the stand up and knocked him out in 3 minutes. Then Bellato went against an 11-4 striker with 60 striking and 50 wrestling. Striking exchanges were close to equal, but then the fight hit the ground where Bellato took over, got mount, got the arm bar, got the tap with seconds left in the 1st round. Now let’s look at Petrino’s whole pro career. Knockes out Bellato in 25 seconds, pro debut. Next fight, and this is a fight I watched, not a lot of footage on Petrino. Here he takes on a fighter making his pro debut, who’s currently got a 6-3 record, I think he has 50 striking and 50 wrestling. Petrino did land more on the feet but you could say that Petrino got out wrestled. Especially towards the end of the fight. Next, Petrino knocked out a 1-15 fighter. Next, he knocked out a 0-6 fighter. Next, Petrino knocks out a fighter making his pro debut. Then Petrino’s last fight was against UFC vet Gadzhimurad Antigulov. And we know Antigulov has grappling, but he’s been knocked out in 3 of his last 4 fights. His chin is unable to take damage. And Petrino was able to knock him out too. So yes, the knockout win over Bellato looks good for Petrino. But I haven’t seen anything that shows his striking is above a 55. I also haven’t seen anything that shows his wrestling is above a 50. Yes, most times, whichever fighter wins the first fight, majority of the time wins the rematch. But in this case, Bellato is the one who’s gotten better and I see two legit paths for him to win here.
Chris’ Pick: Bellato by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Bellato -200
Gabriel Bonfim vs Trey Waters
- Gabriel Bonfim
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 12-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-2-1 fighter and a well rounded 13-3 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 8-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Trey Waters
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Waters was a +450 underdog in his last fight with a 3-0 wrestler who I think has 55 striking and 60 wrestling. I think Waters was such a heavy dog because the market thought he had no wrestling, but he did okay. His opponent was probably up going into the 3rd round. Most of the fight was Waters being pushed against the fence in the clinch. Until Waters landed a high knee that netted him the KO. Striking was close to equal. Bonfim might appear to be a grappler. 9 submission wins, 3 KOs. But he’s very well rounded. He took on an opponent with an 8-0 record, who I think has 60 striking and 55 wrestling. Bonfim got the better of the wrestling. Striking was close to equal. I think Bonfim is better everywhere, but Waters is a live underdog with his long reach and the fact that he’s pulled off a big upset before.
Chris’ Pick: Bonfim by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Bonfim -175
Jimmy Lawson vs Karl Williams
- Jimmy Lawson
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 4-1
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Karl Williams
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Beat a 5-2 wrestler.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Williams took on a 9-8 grappler last time out who I thought had 40 striking and 45 grappling. And Williams did what he was supposed to do. Fight played out on the feet. And Williams got hit some, but he mostly took care of business, knocking the opponent out in the 1st round. Nothing crazy. Williams striking is a 50 for me. The main fight I wanted to watch of Lawson’s was him against a 3-2 grappler. The reason is because Lawson’s last three fights have ended in about 30 seconds or less. So I watched Lawson against the 3-2 grappler. I wasn’t that impressed. I thought the opponent had 45 striking and 50 wrestling. The fight was back and forth on the feet. Lawson eventually got the KO, but I graded his striking a 50. But I had to keep in mind that fight happened three years ago when Lawson had a 0-1 pro record. I watched his last two fights and although the fights were over in about 30 seconds, you can see the progression. He knocked out a well rounded 6-3 fighter with 50 striking in 18 seconds. His most impressive win was his last fight which happened this past April against a 5-4 wrestler with 40 striking, 45 wrestling. Lawson made it a point to take him down in seconds and end the fight in 34 seconds with ground and pound. 60 wrestling for me. From what I’ve seen, Lawson is the more athletic and explosive fighter, but he has to be careful not gassing himself out going for the early finish too hard. But I’m hoping with his wrestling background he’ll also have the cardio to go 3 rounds.
Chris’ Pick: Lawson by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Lawson -250
Ismael Bonfim vs Nariman Abbasov
- Ismael Bonfim
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 17-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 11-4 wrestler and a 8-3 wrestler. Beat a 6-1 grappler, a well rounded 12-2 fighter, and a well rounded 10-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Nariman Abbasov
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 28-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-1 fighter, a 27-4 grappler, a 40-6 wrestler, and a 4-1 striker. Beat a 13-1 grappler, a well rounded 18-6 fighter, and a 4-1 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
In Bonfim’s last fight he took on a 12-2 wrestler who I thought had 50 striking and 55 wrestling. And everything played out how I thought it would. Bonfim was just a tad better everywhere. Better striking, more power. He even took the wrestler down a couple times. I was really impressed with Abbasov, his last fight was against a 27-4 grappler with at least 55 striking and at least 60 grappling. And Abbasov is a tank, he’s a shorter lightweight. Was really aggressive in the fight. Seemed like he had the cardio to keep up the pace. The striking was so lopsided on the feet, Abbasov’s corner through in the towel after the 2nd round. Bonfim’s best tool is his wrestling and Abbasov has the ability to neutralize it. This fight will play out on the feet where I see Abbasov being better with margin.
Chris’ Pick: Abbasov by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Abbasov -275
Nayara Maia vs Tereza Bleda
- Nayara Maia
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 7-0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 10-1 fighter. Beat a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Tereza Bleda
- Age: 20
- Pro Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-1 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
I don’t say this often, but Bleda is a prospect with championship upside. She took on a 9-1 grappler/wrestler named Mabelly Lima in her last fight. And Lima is no run of the mill prospect. Lima’s only career loss was on the Contender, losing to Luana Carolina. Bleda came in, took Lima down like it was nothing. Seconds later, got the mount, then started pounding away. Fight was over in less than 2 minutes. I can’t emphasize enough how rare it is to see dominance over a prospect with a 9-1 record like that. And on top of everything else, Bleda is only 20 years old. I thought Lima had 55 wrestling, maybe it was a 50. But Bleda has 65 wrestling for sure. One of Maia’s last fights was with a well rounded 2-0 fighter that I thought had 50 tools, but maybe she had 55s. Fight was close. Lot of grappling that went back and forth. I thought Maia was getting the better of the stand up. So her striking is a 60 and grappling is a 55 for me, but there’s a chance I’m grading Maia a tier too high. Thing I do know is if Bleda was able to take down Lima with ease, she should be able to do the same to Maia.
Chris’ Pick: Bleda by 2nd round ground and pound TKO.
What I think the odds should be: Bleda -275