Alexandre Pantoja vs Steve Erceg
- Alexandre Pantoja
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 11-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Schnell and Wilson Reis. Submitted Alex Perez, Brandon Royval, and Yuta Sasaki. Beat Brandon Moreno and Manel Kape.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Steve Erceg
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 12-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Schnell. Submitted Shannon Ross and a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Beat Alessandro Costa and David Dvorak.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Pantoja’s grappling is on the lower end of the 75 grade. It’s borderish of a 70. And I don’t think he has the cardio to be able to take Erceg down the whole fight. It’ll be close on the feet, but I think Erceg has more power, longer reach, and he could show up with 75 striking.
Chris’ Pick: Erceg by 3rd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Erceg -125
Jose Aldo vs Jonathan Martinez
- Jose Aldo
- Age: 37
- UFC/WEC Record: 3-3 at 135 lbs. 20-7 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Marlon Moraes.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Chad Mendes, the Korean Zombie, Jeremy Stephens, and Renato Moicano. Beat Rob Font, Marlon Vera, Urijah Faber, and Frankie Edgar.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Jonathan Martinez
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 10-2
- Key Losses: Controversial split decision loss to Andre Ewell. Lost to Andre Soukhamthath.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Adrian Yanez, Cub Swanson, Frankie Saenz, and Pingyuan Liu. Beat Said Nurmagomedov, Vince Morales, Alejandro Perez, Thomas Almeida, and Zviad Lavishvili.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Market had Martinez’s striking as a 70 going into his breakthrough fight with Yanez. And the market was right, striking was close to equal until Yanez’s leg started to give out. Martinez has 2 leg kick KO’s in his last 3 fights. So I’m grading his power a 70. And I’m projecting his wrestling as a 70. It was close to a 70 after he edged out Nurmagomedov there. And with his striking leveling up, makes sense that his wrestling would be better too as he’s always been a well rounded fighter. Aldo’s last fight, a really close loss to Merab Dvalishvili, has aged well. Aldo will probably have more power here but he also has more question marks as he’ hasn’t fought ‘s coming out of retirement and hasn’t fought in almost 2 years. But I ultimately think this fight is real close and I see no way the judges give Martinez the fight in Rio.
Chris’ Pick: Aldo by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Aldo -135
Anthony Smith vs Vitor Petrino
- Anthony Smith
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 6-6 at 205 lbs. 10-9 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Devin Clark, Alexander Gustafsson, and Volkan Oezdemir. Knocked out Jimmy Crute and Shogun Rua. Split decision over Ryan Spann.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Vitor Petrino
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Modestas Bukauskas, Rodolfo Bellato twice, and Gadzhimurad Antigulov. Submitted Marcin Prachnio. Beat Tyson Pedro and Anton Turkalj.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
The market was thinking Petrino has 70 striking. But the striking numbers between him and Pedro were close to equal. The narrative that Khali Rountree out classed Smith isn’t based in reality. Rountree only out struck Smith 51 to 46. Market thought Smith’s striking was a 65, but this fight, plus Smith out striking Spann 90 to 50 the fight before that, reaffirms he does still have 70 striking.
Chris’ Pick: Smith by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be: Smith -200
Michel Pereira vs Ihor Potieria
- Michel Pereira
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 2-0 at 185 lbs. 9-2 overall.
- Key Losses: DQ loss to Diego Sanchez. Lost to Tristan Connelly.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Petroski, Danny Roberts. Submitted Michel Oleksiejczuk and an 8-2 striker. Beat Andre Fialho, Niko Price, and Khaos Williams. Split decision over Santiago Ponzinibbio.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Ihor Potieria
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shogun Rua and an 8-0 striker. Beat Robert Bryczek.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
The official record might say Pereira by submission in his last fight, but really it was his new found 70 power and knockdown that ended the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Pereira by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Pereira -300
Paul Craig vs Caio Borralho
- Paul Craig
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 1-1 at 185 lbs. 9-7-1 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Muniz, Jamahal Hill, and Shogun Rua. Submitted Nikita Krylov, Kennedy Nzechukwu, and Magomed Ankalaev.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Caio Borralho
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 7-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-3 grappler. Submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk and a well rounded 5-2 fighter. Beat Makhmud Muradov, Armen Petrosyan, Gadzhi Omargadzhiev, a 10-2 striker, and a 7-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Borralho’s striking is really close to a 70. I think he lands a few more than Craig and that helps him edge out a win.
Chris’ Pick: Borralho by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Borralho -135
Jack Shore vs Joanderson Brito
- Jack Shore
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Makwan Amirkhani, a 12-3 striker, a 9-3 wrestler, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, and a 10-3 wrestler. Knocked out a 7-0 striker. Beat Timur Valiev and Liudvik Sholinian. Split decision over Hunter Azure.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Joanderson Brito
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Jonathan Pearce, Lucas Alexander, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 6-0 grappler. Knocked out Westin Wilson, Andre Fili, and a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Beat Diego Lopes.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Ricky Simon’s fight with Mario Bautista I think finally showed how good Simon is. Wrestling is not a 75. Just a 70. And striking is definitely a 65. And now I can finally, accurately grade Shore. And seeing how Shore was rocked and knocked down by Simon, it seems like Brito’s power will be the difference here.
Chris’ Pick: Brito by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be: Brito -175
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Iasmin Lucindo
- Karolina Kowalkiewicz
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 9-7
- Key Losses: Submitted by Claudia Gadelha.
- Key Wins: Submitted Felice Herrig. Beat Diana Belbita, Vanessa Demopoulos, Silvana Juarez, and Randa Markos. Split decision over Rose Namajunas in 2016.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Iasmin Lucindo
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 15-5
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Polyana Viana. Beat Brogan Walker and an 8-3 grappler. Split decision over Sarah Frota.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
We now know 100% for sure Vanessa Demopoulos’ wrestling is a 60. Her last fight was against Kanako Murata. And Murata dominated on the ground with over 10 minutes of control time in the fight. Done. Thus, when Kowalkiewicz was able to stuff Demopoulos’ take down attempts, we shouldn’t have been surprised. I’m very confident where I have Kowalkiewicz’s tools graded at. I could be wrong, and she only has 3 submission wins, but it seems Lucindo’s grappling has leveled up to a 70 with what she was able to do to Viana.
Chris’ Pick: Lucindo by 2nd round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Lucindo -250
Elves Brener vs Myktybek Orolbai
- Elves Brener
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 16-3
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Losses: Lost to a 10-7 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kaynan Kruschewsky and Guram Kutateladze. Submitted a 7-0 grappler, a 5-2 wrestler, and a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Split decision over Zubaira Tukhugov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Myktybek Orolbai
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 12-1-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Uros Medic. Knocked out a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Beat a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Orolbai made his UFC debut on about a week’s notice, fought up a weight class, and amazingly, dominated Medic. His cardio is what really stood out. Took Medic down 7 times and wasn’t even breathing hard. Now comes down to his natural weight class at 155 lbs.
Chris’ Pick: Brener by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Brener -135
Drakkar Klose vs Joaquim Silva
- Drakkar Klose
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 8-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Joe Solecki. Beat Rafa Garcia and Bobby Green. Split decision over Marc Diakiese.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Joaquim SIlva
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jared Gordon. Beat Clay Guida.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
I used to think Silva had 65 striking. No more though as Guida out struck Silva 36 to 28. I used to think Klose’s striking was a 60, but I’ve come around to the fact that it’s a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Klose by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Klose -225
Jamie Mullarkey vs Mauricio Ruffy
- Jamie Mullarkey
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-5
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 5-6 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Devonte Smith, Khama Worthy, and a 4-1 wrestler. Beat John Makdessi. Split decision over Michael Johnson
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Mauricio Ruffy
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 10-1 fighter, Ronys Torres, and a well rounded 11-4 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Ruffy took on an Islam Makhachev sparring partner in Raimond Magomedaliev. They wrestled for maybe half the fight. And amazingly, it was Magomedaliev that ran out of gas in the 3rd round. Market thought Magomedaliev’s wrestling was a 65. And I’m not sure if Ruffy’s striking is a 65, but coming into this fight, I had his striking ahead of his wrestling. Mullarkey has been knocked out in 3 of his last 6 fights. I don’t trust his chin anymore.
Chris’ Pick: Ruffy by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ruffy -300
Dione Barbosa vs Ernesta Kareckaite
- Dione Barbosa
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 6-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Karine Silva.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Ernesta Kareckaite
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 5-0-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Split decision wins over a 3-0 striker and a well rounded 4-0-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Market seems to think Barbosa has 65 grappling. They’re probably right, but it might be a 60 tool. Market closed with Carli Judice as a -175 favorie over Kareckaite, seemed to think Judice had 65 striking, that she was better there. But instead Kareckaite out struck her 148 to 132. Kareckaite’s cardio really stood out.
Chris’ Pick: Kareckaite by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Kareckaite -175
Ismael Bonfim vs Vinc Pichel
- Ismael Bonfim
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 19-4
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Terrance McKinney, an 11-4 wrestler, and a 8-3 wrestler. Beat a 27-3 wrestler, a 6-1 grappler, a well rounded 12-2 fighter, and a well rounded 10-1 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Vinc Pichel
- Age: 41
- UFC Record: 10-4
- Key Wins: Beat Austin Hubbard, Jim Miller, Roosevelt Roberts, and Joaquim Silva.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Bonfim by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Bonfim -300
Alessandro Costa vs Kevin Borjas
- Alessandro Costa
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 13-4
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 10-2 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jimmy Flick and a 9-2 wrestler. Beat a 4-1 grappler. Split decision over a 12-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Kevin Borjas
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Beat an 11-2 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
It’s hard to grade Borjas because I just don’t know yet how good Joshua Van is. It’s possible Van could have 70 striking, but for now I have him as a 65. And Van out struck Borjas 153 to 73.
Chris’ Pick: Costa by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Costa -350