Edson Barboza vs Lerone Murphy
- Edson Barboza
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 4-3 at 145 lbs. 18-13 overall UFC record.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dan Ige.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Billy Quarantillo, Shane Burgos, Dan Hooker, and Beneil Dariush. Beat Sodiq Yusuff, Makwan Amirkhani, Anthony Pettis, and Gilbert Melendez.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Lerone Murphy
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-0-1
- Key Draws: Fought Zubaira Tukhugov to a split decision draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Makwan Amirkhani and Ricardo Ramos. Beat Josh Culibao, Douglas Silva de Andrade, and a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Split decision over Gabriel Santos.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Very possible Murphy shows up improved. And if he does, then it could be a close fight. But with the skills I’ve seen from Murphy up to this point, I don’t see how he out strikes Barboza.
Chris’ Pick: Barboza by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Barboza -200
Khaos Williams vs Carlston Harris
- Khaos Williams
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Randy Brown.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Miguel Baeza, Abdul Razak Alhassan, and Alex Morono. Beat Matthew Semelsberger and a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Split decision over Rolando Bedoya.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Carlston Harris
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to an 11-7 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Impa Kasanganay and an 8-1 striker. Submitted Jeremiah Wells, a 17-1 grappler. Beat Jared Gooden, Wellington Turman, a 7-1 striker, and a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
It’s hard to figure out how good Harris’ grappling tool is if you watch his last fight with Wells. Market priced Harris vs Wells as a pick em, but the first couple rounds, Wells got the better of the grappling. But then in the 3rd round, Harris caught Wells in an anaconda choke and it was all over. So it’s hard to figure out if Harris was content off his back, looking for submissions. But if we look back at the fight before that where Harris took on Gooden, you’ll see Harris had over 9 minutes of control time on the ground.
Chris’ Pick: Harris by 2nd round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be: Harris -175
Themba Gorimbo vs Ramiz Brahimaj
- Themba Gorimbo
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 12-4
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a well rounded 14-7 fighter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Pete Rodriguez. Submitted a 6-0 wrestler. Beat Takashi Sato and a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Ramiz Brahimaj
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 10-4
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Lost to an 8-3 grappler and a 10-4 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Submitted Sasha Palatnikov and a 9-3 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Gorimbo by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be: Gorimbo -300
Adrian Yanez vs Vinicius Salvador
- Adrian Yanez
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Domingo Pilarte in 2017 and Miles John in 2018.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tony Kelley, Randy Costa, Gustavo Lopez, a 5-2 striker, and a well rounded 11-1 fighter. Submitted a 5-2 grappler. Split decision over Davey Grant.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Vinicius Salvador
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 14-6
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, and a well rounded 9-3 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Salvador is moving up to 135 lbs because he couldn’t make 125 lbs. Probably will show up improved, but Yanez has enough margin that he should still win.
Chris’ Pick: Yanez by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Yanez -250
Angela Hill vs Luana Pinheiro
- Angela Hill
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 10-10
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Amanda Lemos, Michelle Waterson, and Claudia Gadelha.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hannah Cifers. Beat Denise Gomes, Emily Ducote, Loopy Godinez, Ashley Yoder, and Maryna Moroz. Split decision win over Livinha Souza.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Luana Pinheiro
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-1 striker. Beat Sam Hughes. Split decision over Michelle Waterson.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Watching Pinheiro against Ribas, her grappling is getting very close to a 70 grade, but not quite there yet. With Ribas out striking Pinheiro 81 to 51, I’m confident Pinheiro’s striking is just a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Pinheiro by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be: Pinheiro -175
Tuco Tokkos vs Oumar Sy
- Tuco Tokkos
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 10-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-1 striker and a 9-3 wrestler. Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Oumar Sy
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 9-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Sy looks like a really good prospect. Striking could be as high as a 65. And Sy looks like he has the cardio to wrestle all 3 rounds if he wants to. Tokkos steps in on less than a week’s notice, but I think there’s a really good chance Tokkos has been in training camp preparing to be on the Contender Series. He closed as a monster -675 favorite on Road to UFC against Mingyang Zhang and was upset. Not because Tokkos was over rated, but because Mingyang is really, really good. This is a total trap fight for Sy.
Chris’ Pick: Tokkos by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Tokkos -200
Tom Nolan vs Victor Martinez
- Tom Nolan
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 12-1 striker and a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Victor Martinez
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 13-5
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Split decision win over a 6-0 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Despite getting knocked out in a little over 2 minutes, I saw enough to realize that I was under rating Martinez’s skill’s so I gave them a bump up. Nolan closed as a -355 favorite against Nick Motta, but got knocked out in a big upset. Hard to downgrade Nolan’s tools though being the fight only lasted a minute, although it’s within the realm of possibility that Nolan’s striking could be a 60.
Chris’ Pick: Nolan by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Nolan -200
Melissa Gatto vs Timares Vidal
- Melissa Gatto
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-2-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Ariane Lipski.
- Key Draws: Fought a 9-4-1 striker to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Karol Rosa. Knocked out Victoria Leonardo.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Tamires Vidal
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Montserrat Rendon.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ramona Pascual. Submitted a 4-1 wrestler. Beat a 4-1 grappler and a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
I know that Ariane Lipski’s striking is at least a 65 for sure and Gatto out struck Lipski 70 to 53. So Gatto’s striking could be as high as a 70. She’s on the brink of that grade for me. Vidal was taken down repeatedly by Rendon. I see Gatto having no problem doing the same thing.
Chris’ Pick: Gatto by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gatto -450
Abus Magomedov vs Warlley Alves
- Abusupiyan Magomedov
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 25-5-1
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dustin Stolztfus, Jessin Ayari, an 11-2 striker, a well rounded 15-5 fighter, and a 10-3 grappler. Submitted a 12-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Warlley Alves
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 0-1 at 185 lbs. 8-7 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Nicolas Dalby.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mounir Lazzez. Submitted Colby Covington in 2015.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Alves fought Ikram Aliskerov on 2 weeks notice at 185 lbs, got knocked out in the 1st round. But interestingly, Alves is staying at middleweight. Magomedov’s striking is very close to a 70 grade. Caio Borralho only out struck him 50 to 38.
Chris’ Pick: Magomedov by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Magomedov -350
Piera Rodriguez vs Ariane Carnelossi
- Piera Rodriguez
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 13-4 grappler and a 3-1 grappler. Beat Sam Hughes, Kay Hansen, and an 8-2 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Ariane Carnelossi
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 14-3
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Na Liang and an 8-1 striker. Submitted Istela Nunes.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Carnelossi returns for her first fight in over 2 years. Last time out, she got dominated on the ground by Loopy Godinez. Decent chance Carnelossi shows up improved. Real coin flip fight because I expect Rodriguez to level up too coming off her first UFC loss.
Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Rodriguez -125
Kleydson Rodrigues vs Heili Alateng
- Kleydson Rodrigues
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-3
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to CJ Vergara.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shannon Ross. Submitted a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat a 6-1 striker and a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Heili Alateng
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Gustavo Lopez to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kevin Croom and a 5-1 striker. Beat Chad Anheliger and Danaa Batgerel. Split decision over Ryan Benoit.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Rodrigues had zero answers for Farid Basharat in his last fight. Rodrigues’ wrestling is at the bottom of the 60 grade, could be close to a 55. But that shouldn’t matter with Heili.
Chris’ Pick: Rodrigues by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Rodrigues -250
Vanessa Demopoulos vs Emily Ducote
- Vanessa Demopoulos
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Silvana Juarez and Sam Hughes. Knocked out a 5-2 striker. Beat Kanako Murata and Maria Oliveira.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Emily Ducote
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 13-8
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: split decision loss to Kanako Murata.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-3 wrestler and a 10-2 striker. Submitted a well round 6-1 fighter. Beat Ashley Yoder and Jessica Penne.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Ducote has a breakout fight with Loopy Godinez. Almost beats her. Shows 70 wrestling. But in her last fight with Yoder, I really expected Ducote to dominate more in the stand up. Ducote did land more, 117 to 93, but the first 2 rounds were closer than I thought it would be. Maybe an outlier?
Chris’ Pick: Ducote by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ducote -500