Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen
- Reinier de Ridder
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 21-2
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Kevin Holland, Gerald Meerschaert, a well rounded 12-2 fighter, a 17-1 grappler, and a well rounded 23-4 fighter. Knocked out Bo Nickal, a 6-1 striker, and a well rounded 30-6 fighter. Beat an 11-3 striker. Split decision over Robert Whittaker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Brendan Allen
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 13-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tom Breese. Submitted Paul Craig, Bruno Silva, Andre Muniz, Krzysztof Jotko, Sam Alvey, Kevin Holland, a 9-1 striker, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, and a 6-1 striker. Beat Marvin Vettori, Jacob Malkoun, Punahele Soriano, and an 8-1 striker. Split decision over Chris Curtis.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Allen by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Allen -125
Kevin Holland vs Mike Malott
- Kevin Holland
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-4 at 170 lbs. 15-10 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jack Della Maddalena.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Oliveira, Jacare Souza, Joaquin Buckley and Anthony Hernandez. Submitted Vicente Luque, Michal Oleksiejczuk, Michael Chiesa and Tim Means. Beat Gunnar Nelson and Alessio Di Chirico. Split decisions over Gerald Meerschaert and Darren Stewart.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Mike Malott
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Draws: Fought a 5-4 striker to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Charlie Radtke, Mickey Gall, a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Submitted Adam Fugitt, Yohan Lainesse, a 8-0 striker, a 6-0 wrestler, and a 3-0 grappler. Beat Trevin Giles.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: near plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Malott by 1st round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Malott -200
Marlon Vera vs Aiemann Zahabi
- Marlon Vera
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 15-9
- Key Losses: Lost to Douglas Silva de Andrade. Lost a controversial decision to Yadong Song.
- Key Wins: Submitted Brian Kelleher. Knocked out Dominick Cruz, Frankie Edgar, Sean O’Malley, Frankie Saenz and Andre Ewell. Beat Pedro Munhoz, Rob Font, and Davey Grant.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Aiemann Zahabi
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Losses: Lost to Vince Morales.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Qileng Aori, Drako Rodriguez. Beat Jose Aldo, Pedro Munhoz, Javid Basharat, Ricky Turcios, and a 13-4 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Ok so, Aldo closed as a near 2 to 1 favorite against Zahabi. But the striking ended up being close to equal and Zahabi pulled the upset. So has Zahabi, at 37 years of age, leveled up his striking to a 70? It’s possible. But being that we now know that was Aldo’s last fight, I think it’s more likely that Aldo’s striking had regressed to a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Vera by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Vera -225
Manon Fiorot vs Jasmine Jasudavicius
- Manon Fiorot
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victoria Leonardo and Tabatha Ricci. Beat Erin Blanchfield, Rose Namajunas, Katlyn Chookagian, Jennifer Maia, Mayra Bueno Silva, and a 4-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Jasmine Jasudavicius
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 9-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 4-0 striker.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jessica Andrade, Ariane da Silva and Priscila Cachoeira. Beat Mayra Bueno Silva, Fatima Kline, Miranda Maverick, Gabriella Fernandes, Kay Hansen, and an 8-2 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Fiorot by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Fiorot -250
Charles Jourdain vs Davey Grant
- Charles Jourdain
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 7-7-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sean Woodson. Majority decision loss to Shane Burgos.
- Key Draws: Split draw to an 8-1 strike
- Key Wins: Knocked out Doo Ho Choi. Submitted Victor Henry, Ricardo Ramos, Lando Vannata and a 9-3 striker. Beat Kron Gracie and Andre Ewell.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Davey Grant
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 10-6
- Key Losses: Submitted by Damian Stasiak and Manny Bermudez. Split decision loss to Daniel Marcos.
- Key Wins: Submitted Raphael Assuncao. Knocked out Louis Smolka and Jonathan Martinez. Beat Da’Mon Blackshear, Ramon Taveras, and Marlon Vera in 2016.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Slight chance I’m over rating Jourdain. He’s now at 15 UFC fights. Probably at his ceiling. He could easily have 65 striking and 60 grappling. Yes, he submitted Henry, but at the same time, Henry took Jourdain down and had almost 4 minutes of control time.
Chris’ Pick: Grant by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Grant -135
Matt Frevola vs Kyle Nelson
- Matt Frevola
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 6-5-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Marco Polo Reyes.
- Key Draws: Fought Lando Vannata to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Drew Dober, Ottman Azaitar, and Genaro Valdez. Beat Jalin Turner. Split decision win over Luis Pena.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Kyle Nelson
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 5-4-1
- Key Draws: Fought Doo Ho Choi to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bill Algeo, Khama Worthy, and Marco Polo Reyes. Beat Fernando Padilla and Blake Bilder.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: above average (65)
Frevola has been knocked out in his last 2 fights and has been knocked out in half of his last 6 fights.
Chris’ Pick: Nelson by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Nelson -225
Drew Dober vs Kyle Prepolec
- Drew Dober
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 13-11
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ricky Glenn, Bobby Green, Terrance McKinney, Alexander Hernandez, and Nasrat Haqparast. Beat Scott Holtzman.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Kyle Prepolec
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 18-8
- UFC Record: 0-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 wrestler and a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Yes, Prepolec was knocked out in his UFC return, but he fought on a week’s notice against Benoit Saint Denis and the striking numbers vs Saint Denis weren’t too bad. It is possible Prepolec’s striking could be closer to a 60 though. Dober has been knocked out in 3 of his last 5 fights. I think Prepolec being more durable is going to help him win this fire fight.
Chris’ Pick: Prepolec by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Prepolec -135
Cody Gibson vs Aoriqileng
- Cody Gibson
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 3-6
- Key Wins: Submitted Brian Kelleher and Francisco Rivera. Knocked out a 9-1 wrestler. Beat Chad Anheliger, John Dodson and a 19-3 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Aoriqileng
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Key WIns: Submitted a 9-2 striker. Knocked out Cameron Else and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Johnny Munoz Jr, Jay Perrin, and a 5-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Gibson’s striking took a big step forward last time out against Da’Mon Blackshear, out striking him 31 to 11. So I’m very confident Gibson’s striking is a 65 now.
Chris’ Pick: Gibson by 1st round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gibson -300
Hyun Sung Park vs Bruno Silva
- Hyun Sung Park
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shannon Ross and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Submitted Carlos Hernandez, a 7-2 wrestler, and an 8-3 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Bruno Silva
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Draws: Fought Casey Kenney and a 4-0 grappler to draws.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victor Rodriguez, JP Buys, and a 4-0 grappler. Submitted Tyson Nam.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
It’s possible Park’s striking could be as high as a 70 but I don’t know for sure because we almost never see him strike.
Chris’ Pick: Park by 2nd round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Park -200
Djorden Santos vs Danny Barlow
- Djorden Santos
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Beat a 12-3 wrestler and a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Split decision over a 3-0 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Danny Barlow
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Josh Quinlan and a 7-1 striker. Split decision over Nikolay Veretennikov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Santos was a -200 favorite going into his last fight with Ozzy Diaz, with the market likely thinking Diaz had 60 striking. But the striking ended up being close to equal and we’re forced to figure out if Santos isn’t as good as we thought or if Diaz showed up improved. Probably the latter, but Santos might instead have 60 striking.
Chris’ Pick: Barlow by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Barlow -135
Stephanie Luciano vs Ravena Oliveira
- Stephanie Luciano
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 6-2-1
- UFC Record: 1-1-1
- Key Loses: Split decision loss to Sam Hughes.
- Key Draws: Fought Talita Alencar to a draw.
- Key Wins: Beat Talita Alencar and a 5-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Ravena Oliveira
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 7-2-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Tainara Lisboa closed as a big -310 favorite but Oliveira really outperformed the market with the fight being a near draws, strikes and grappling being close to equal.
Chris’ Pick: Luciano by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Luciano -200
Azamat Bekoev vs Yousri Belgaroui
- Azamat Bekoev
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 20-3
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ryan Loder and Zachary Reese. Submitted a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a 4-0 grappler. Beat a well rounded 6-1 fighter and a well rounded 9-2 fighter. Split decision over Dylan Budka.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Yousri Belgaroui
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 7-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 11-3 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Watching Belgaroui’s last fight on the Contender, his wrestling was really on the bubble between a 55 and a 60, but I’m grading it as a 60 for now, more of a projection due to Belgaroui not having fought in a year and training with Glover Teixeira, so his wrestling has probably gotten better.
Chris’ Pick: Belgaroui by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Belgaroui -135
Tainara Lisboa vs Melissa Croden
- Tainara Lisboa
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 7-3
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Jessica Rose Clark. Beat Ravena Oliveira.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Melissa Croden
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 6-2
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
With how Luana Santos dominated Lisboa on the ground, there’s a very real possibility I’m over rating her. Could have 55 striking and 50 grappling.
Chris’ Pick: Croden by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Croden -175