#4 Fabricio Werdum (11-5) vs. #8 Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (18-6)
Pick: Fabricio Werdum – Nogueira is still a decent heavyweight, although he’s only fought once in the last year and a half against a below average fighter in Dave Herman. So I take it back. We don’t really know if Big Nog is still pretty good. But after seeing Werdum destroy Roy Nelson, I do know how good Fabricio is.
William Patolino Macario (0-0, #6 WW Prospect) vs. Leonardo Santos (0-0, #15 WW Prospect) – TUF Brazil 2 Final
Pick: William Macario – Macario came on TUF Brazil 2 as an unknown commodity. He came on undefeated winning all of his fights via stoppage, but none of the wins were against quality fighters. Well, he’s now finished every quality opponent he’s faced on TUF. Santos is another quality opponent and not too much better than other fighters he’s already defeated.
#16 Feijao Cavalcante (7-2) vs. #21 Thiago Silva (5-3)
Pick: Feijao Cavalcante – Silva has gone from contender to gatekeeper because he hasn’t been able to defeat any of the top 10 light heavyweights in the UFC. Feijao is for real and the UFC is going to use this fight to introduce a new contender in the 205 lb. division.
#28 Jason High (3-2) vs. #35 Erick Silva (3-1)
Pick: Jason High – This is my upset special of the night. Lots of people are very high on Erick Silva, but the facts show Silva to potentially be on a similar path as Thiago Silva. Silva started out 4-0 in the UFC with 4 straight finishes, but all of the wins were against fighters the UFC would soon release. All 3 of Erick Silva’s knockouts were over fighters no longer in the UFC: Luis Ramos, Carlo Prater, and Charlie Brenneman. Not exactly household names. I’m very high on Jason High. Before being brought over to the UFC I had him ranked as the 5th best welterweight prospect in the world. Silva could very well win, but I smell the upset.
#50 Daniel Sarafian (0-1) vs. Eddie Mendez (0-0, Unranked MW Prospect)
Pick: Daniel Sarafian – Eddie Mendez doesn’t belong in the UFC. He’s not a good prospect. Mendez is going to make Sarafian look very good.
#19 Rony Jason Mariano (2-0) vs. Mike Wilkinson (0-0, #49 UFC LW)
Pick: Rony Jason Mariano – The UFC is doing a much better job of bringing their Ultimate Fighter winners along more slowly and not throwing them in with the wolves too quickly. Wilkinson is coming off TUF: UK vs. Australia and is a good fighter, might even stick around in the UFC, but Rony Jason is a future title contender and will pick up another UFC win.
#7 Raphael Assuncao (3-0) vs. #28 Vaughan Lee (2-2)
Pick: Raphael Assuncao – I’ve never been that high on Vaughn Lee. His two wins in the UFC are against very bad competition. Assuncao is coming off the biggest win of his career over Mike Easton. This will be an easy win for Assuncao.
#26 Felipe Arantes (1-1) vs. #29 Godofredo Pepey Castro (1-1)
Pick: Godofredo Pepey – This is the toughest fight to pick on the night and will truly test the quality of TUF Brazil 1. Pepey looked very good on TUF and made it to the finals and he should be Arantes. But Arantes was supposed to lose to the much ballyhooed Antonio Carvalho and didn’t. Arantes is a solid fighter and will be dangerous but I like Pepey’s upside and think that he’s going to show improvement.
Ildemar Alcantara (0-0, #39 UFC MW) vs. Leandro Buscape Silva (0-0, #45 WW Prospect)
Pick: Ildemar Alcantara – Alcantara, who is the brother of UFC bantamweight contender Yuri Alcantara, beat a very good Wagner Prado in his debut at light heavyweight. Alcantara is now fighting at his natural weight at 170 lbs. Buscape Silva was a very hyped prospect coming into TUF Brazil 2, but lost to a very one dimensional fighter in David Viera. Alcantara won’t have any problems here.
#39 Rodrigo Damm (1-1) vs. #40 Mizuto Hirota (0-1)
Pick: Rodrigo Damm – Damm is very underated. He’ll dispatch Hirota quickly.
#49 Karlos Vemola (1-1) vs. Caio Magalhaes (0-1)
Pick: Karlos Vemola – Vemola is a former heavyweight, now fighting at 185 lbs and he’s OK. He might stick around in the UFC. Magalhaes has no upside. He’ll be released after this fight.
Antonio Braga Neto (0-0, #7 LHW Prospect) vs. Anthony Smith (0-0, Unranked MW Prospect)
Pick: Antonio Braga Neto – I’ve had my eye on Braga Neto for awhile and he’s one of the better mma prospects the UFC has signed in quite some time. Anthony Smith is a decent fighter, but has nowhere near the talent Neto does.