My UFC Oklahoma picks:
-Michael Chiesa: Chiesa’s finish over Beneil Duriush really made me a believer that he’s a legit title contender. Mike Lee is very good and might even end up fighting for the title too, but thus far in his career, any time Lee has taken a step up in competition like with Al Iaquinta and Leonardo Santos, he loses. Yes, Chiesa has a couple losses too. But the difference is that Chiesa also has a lot of wins over big time lightweights, whereas the quality of competition Lee has beaten isn’t on the same level. Actually, I don’t think the fight will be that close with Chiesa having a big grappling advantage to help him get the submission.
-Johny Hendricks: Some people forget how good Hendricks used to be and that he was the one to send GSP into retirement (he still hasn’t returned yet). Tim Boetsch can knockout anyone, but Hendricks is a similar and better version of Boetsch. I don’t see anywhere Boetsch can win.
-Felice Herrig: Not sure that Herrig will fight for the title in the UFC and how much she has left in a long career, but if she was good enough to Alexa Grasso, she can beat Justine Kish too.
-Dominick Reyes: It’s possible that Reyes could be a top prospect, but the best fighter he beat outside the UFC was 3-0. Joachim Christensen isn’t that great and however good Reyes turns out to be, I really like his odds in beating Christensen.
-Tim Means: Easy fight to pick. Means is one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC. Alex Garcia used to be hyped as a top prospect but has been exposed. I don’t Garcia has anything for Means.
-BJ Penn: UFC found an opponent Penn actually has a chance of beating. Dennis Siver hasn’t fought in 2 years. Is 38 years old. And was never a champion the way Penn was. Penn will never be a champion again, probably will never be able to beat a young contender again like Yair Rodriguez, but I think he has enough in the tank to beat Siver.
-Erik Koch: I’m excited to see Koch fighting again. I remember back in the day he used to be the next big thing at 145 lbs until he got beat by Ricardo Lamas and Dustin Poirer. No shame in that. And then injuries derailed him for a couple years. And wow. I can’t believe Clay Guida is still fighting. This fight is booked to build Koch back up.
-Marvin Vettori: I like Vettori in this fight, but a -400 favorite? That’s what the sportsbooks has him as. That’s too heavy. Vettori should still win though as his striking is superior to Vitor Miranda’s.
-Maryna Moroz: UPSET SPECIAL: Carla Esparza is favored? What??? That’s crazy talk. Esparza is the bigger name which is why she’s favored, but she’s on the serious decline. Moroz has finished big time fighters in Joanne Calderwood and Karine Silva. I actually think Moroz even finishes Esparza and could be on a path to a title shot in the next couple years.
-Darrell Horcher: Based on Horcher’s body of work, he looks like a future gate keeper. Not a title contender, but someone who will beat fighters that don’t belong in the UFC. I’m not impressed with what Devin Powell did outside the UFC and think Horcher wins an easy decision here.
-Michael Quinones: Jared Gordon’s record might look impressive, but after a deeper look, you’ll see he hasn’t fought tough competition except Bill Algeo, which he won by decision. Quinones really won me over when he knocked out Billy Quarantillo. Quinones has looked like the better prospect and could finish Gordon.
-Johnny Case: Very much a coin flip fight for me, but Tony Martin hasn’t shown me much losing half his fights in the UFC, while Case is 4-1. Not that I’m very confident in Case. I’m not. This is a really equal fight, but I think Case grinds it out.
-Josh Stansbury: These are two of the most blah, below average prospects in the UFC. I see Jeremy Kimball as being more mediocre than Stansbury. I expect both fighters not to last long in the UFC.