-Yoel Romero: UPSET SPECIAL 1: Super tough fight to pick. I will say that I’m of the opinion that Luke Rockhold is the better overall, all around fighter. And there’s a good chance Rockhold beats Robert Whittaker. But Romero is a nightmare style matchup for Rockhold. Rockhold’s pro record is 16-3. And he’s lost all 3 fights the same way. Blitzed and knocked out in less than 4 minutes. And who blitzes better than Romero? A guy like Whittaker, survived the 1st round Romero storm and then turned up the heat and won the decision against Romero. Jacare Souza survived the 1st round, Romero slowed down, Jacare did better in the last round of the fight, but lost because Romero was so dominant in the 1st half of the fight. I question Rockhold’s chin. He really shouldn’t have lost to Bisping. And also because that doubt has got to be in his mind still, I think we’re going to see Romero knock out Rockhold in the 1st.
-Curtis Blaydes: It’s easy to forget with how effective and durable Mark Hunt has been, that he’s 43 years old. And there are not too many fighters still as successful as he is at that age. You figure sooner or later, he’s going to slow down. Stylistically, I think Blaydes is a horrible matchup for Hunt. I see Bladyes using his world class wrestling to follow the same blueprint Brock Lesnar used to beat Hunt a couple years ago. Blaydes is 26 years old. Will have better cardio. Probably will be stronger. And if Bladyes can survive Francis Ngannou for 2 rounds without getting knocked out, I think he’ll be able to weather the first round storm from Hunt. And then take the 2nd and 3rd rounds en route to a decision win.
-Tai Tuivasa: I remember Cyril Asker’s fight against Walt Harris last year pretty well. Harris is a one dimensional fighter, but the one dimension, striking, is really good. And Harris knocked Asker out in within 2 minutes. Problem for Asker is that Harris has a 3-6 UFC record. And if Asker didn’t have the wrestling to take down Harris, I doubt he takes down a much younger, stronger fighter in Tuivasa. So I like Tuivasa by 1st round knockout.
-Jake Matthews: UPSET SPECIAL 2: First off, Matthews is really young. 23 years old. Made his UFC debut back in 2014 when he was 19 years old. That’s crazy young! You get the point. What I’m trying to say is Matthews is going to get a lot, a lot better. A lot of champions actually debut around 20-23 years old and then peak and become champion when they’re 25-27 years old. So Matthews could be heading to that moment when he’s turning a corner and going to the next level. He went 4-3 in the UFC at 155 lbs. All 4 of his wins were finishes. Including a submission win over Johnny Case who was 4-0 in the UFC at the time. 2 of his 3 losses were against contenders Kevin Lee and James Vick. And Matthews had a split decision loss to Andrew Holbrook due to Holbrook exposing a weakness Matthews had for wrestling. Matthews made his 170 lb debut with a close decision win over Bojan Velickovic. But Velickovic is better than his UFC record says. He’s good. Ok, enough about Matthews. Jingliang Li. 6-2 in the UFC. 29 years old. In his prime. Only one main problem. Li has been carefully matched in the UFC so far. The 6 fighters Li has wins against, have a combined UFC record of 5-15. Not very good at all. He did finish 4 of the 6 wins, so there is that. It’s a tricky fight to pick because based on how Li has looked his past couple fights and how Matthews has looked, it’s tempting to pick Li. But I’m making this pick on projection in that in this fight, we should see the best Matthews yet. And I like him to pick up a close decision win.
-Tyson Pedro: Saparbek Safarov is a pretty good 205 lb prospect. He’s beat some decent prospects outside the UFC. Not elite, but decent prospects. 31 years old. He was also semi famous for finishing every fight he was in. 7 of his 8 wins were in the first round. But then he got knocked out by Gian Villante in his UFC debut, which is not too much of a shame being that Villane is an OK gate keeper with a 6-6 UFC record. But Pedro has been more impressive in the UFC so far to me. He’s younger at 26 years old, has more development to go than Safarov. And his 2 UFC wins were 1st round finishes over really good prospects in Khalil Rountree and Paul Craig. He just lost to Ilir Latifi in a crafty, veteran sort of decision. I think Pedro learned some good lessons and will apply them to knock Safarov out in the 1st round.
-Damien Brown: UPSET SPECIAL 3: Neither fighter has a pretty pro record. Brown is 17-11. Dong Hyun Kim is 15-8. The loser of this fight is likely released from the UFC. But Brown has shown more promise in the UFC so far. Kim is 29 years old. 2-2 in the UFC so far. Got knocked out by Dominique Steele who went 1-4 in the UFC before getting released. Granted that was a 170 lb fight and since Kim has moved down to 155 lbs, but still, not inspiring. At 155 lbs. Kim got knocked out by Polo Reyes and has wins over 2 very lackluster fighters. Brown has a 2-3 UFC record. 33 years old. Lost to Alan Patrick who’s pretty good. Lost to Vinc Pichel who’s on a roll. And lost his last fight to Frank Camahco via split decision, but I scored Brown winning that fight and thought the judges robbed him. Brown also has a split decision win over decent lower tier gate keeper Jon Tuck. Again, not raving about Brown’s potential to be a contender or anything like that. But he’s certainly got a better track record than Kim so I like Brown by decision.
-Israel Adesanya: Rob Wilkinson is a pretty good prospect. Little above average. 25 years old. Only quality opponent he beat outside the UFC was Alexander Poppeck. Finished him. All his other wins were mostly finishes over tomato cans. Made his UFC debut against a solid mid level gate keeper in Siyar Bahadurzada and got starched. Not too much shame there, but shows that Wilkinson has some work to do to stick in the UFC. But unfortunately for him, he’s taking on possibly the #1 prospect at 185 lbs in Adesanya. 28 years old. In his prime. 11-0. 11 knockouts. And he’s beat pretty good fighters. You know who Kenan Song is? Made his UFC debut last November. Knocked out Bobby Nash in 15 seconds. Well, Adesanya knocked out Song. In Adesanya’s 3rd pro fight! And this wasn’t a super long time ago. Just 3 years ago. I’d say half of Adesanya’s wins have come against solid prospects. And to top it all off, some in the industry have said they haven’t seen tools in a fighter like this since Jon Jones. And I don’t hear Jon Jones comparisons that often. Big question in Adesanya’s career is going to be take down defense against wrestlers. How well he can do off his back if someone takes him down. But this is a fighter that before even making his UFC debut, has a chance to not only be a title contender, but could eventually become champion and a star within the next few years. Adesanya by 1st round knockout.
-Alexander Volkanovski: Pretty good fight here. Jeremey Kennedy is undefeated at 11-0. Volkanovski is 16-1 and would be undefeated if he decided against taking on a 170 lb fighter. Volkanovski usually fights at 145 lbs. Kennedy is 25 years old. Finished the tomato cans. Then Kennedy took a step up in competition. He’s fought quality opponents in his last 5 fights, including a 3-0 UFC record. All decision wins. Basically where Kennedy is at right now is that he’s very well rounded and will figure out a way to win exposing his opponents weakness. But his tools are not sharp which makes it hard for him to finish fights. It’s possible, even probable that he develops and improves, but that’s where he is now. But unfortunately for him, he takes on arguably the #1 prospect at 145 lbs in Volkanovski. Not only has Volkanovski beat very good opponents outside the UFC, he also finished a majority of them. Volkanovski also has a 3-0 UFC record. But to me there’s a big difference in track record and Volkanovski’s skills are on a way higher level than Kennedy’s. Especially the striking. I feel confident about Volkanovski winning. And even think he finishes with a 2nd round knockout.
-Ben Nguyen: UPSET SPECIAL 4: Coin flip of a fight. Just as I was ready to dimiss Jussier Formiga as a mid tier gate keeper, he starched Ulka Sasaki, who I thought was a possible contender. Formiga has a 6-4 UFC record, but all 4 of his losses have come against fighters who’ve gotten title shots at 125 lbs. So Formiga is firmly in the upper tier of gate keepers. Like you get past him and you’re probably on your way to an eventual title shot. Nguyen doesn’t have the prettiest pro record at 16-6, but he’s 4-1 in the UFC. And the 4-1 record is even better if you look closer. It includes wins over quality fighters such as Ryan Benoit and Tim Elliott. Most impressively, and the reason I’m picking Nguyen in such a razor close fight, is Nguyen’s ability to finish fights. Which is very, very rare at 125 lbs. It means that Nguyen’s tools are very sharp and skill level in a higher tier than his peers. So because of that, I actually like win to finish. By knockout in the 2nd round.
-Mizuto Hirota: UPSET SPECIAL 5: Ross Pearson has a 11-11 UFC record. That’s 22 UFC fights. And even though Pearson is only 33 years old, he’s nearing the end of his career because of the mileage on his body. Pearson has lost 4 in a row. Including a bad loss to Will Brooks, who Brooks is 1-3 in the UFC. Hirota is towards the end of his career too being 36 years old, but with way, way less wear and tear on his body. Hirota has a 1-1-1 UFC record. With a win over gate keeper Cole Miller. And a draw to Teruto Ishihara. Only losing to elite prospect Alexander Volkanovski. He’s a crafty veteran who can mix wrestling, grappling and striking. And I think he’ll be able to mix it up enough with Pearson to keep him off balance to earn the decision win.
-Jose Quinonez: Quinonez is a very good prospect. 27 years old. 3-1 in the UFC so far, including an impressive win over top prospect Diego Rivas. Big thing with Quinonez is that he’s only had 8 pro fights and will definitely get better. Teruto Ishihara has the potential of a lower tier gate keeper, which he might reach. He might stick in the UFC for a bit. 26 years old. Will probably get better. But now he’s cutting to 135 lbs for the first time. First time cuts are usually rough. But the reason why I can confidently pick Quinonez is Ishihara’s terrible take down defense. And Quinonez is a great wrestler which provides an easy path to a decision win for him.
-Daichi Abe: Luke Jumeau is somebody who probably signed to the UFC too soon. Now, 29 years old is his prime, he’s not super young. But I mean he signed too soon as in he had no experience in beating good fighters outside the UFC. He did beat Dominique Steele in his UFC debut, albeit only by decision. And then there’s also the fact Steele went 1-4 in the UFC. And then Jumeau lost to Shinso Anzai. Abe didn’t beat any great fighters outside the UFC either. 26 years old. What was impressive about him was being able to knock out durable veteran, journeyman fighters, which is not something every prospect can do. But Abe really opened my eyes cleanly beating decent gate keeper Hyun Gyu Lim in his debut. Not sure what Abe’s ceiling is, but if he can beat Lim, he’ll have no problems beating Jumeau by decision.