Connor McGregor vs Donald Cerrone
—Conor McGregor
This fight isn’t a lay up for McGregor as some people think. Donald Cerrone does have legit paths to win here. Cerrone is 36 years old. 23-10 UFC record. Really impressive considering the who’s who of his opponents. He’s only lost to top 10 ranked guys. And although he has nice recent wins over Al Iaquinta and Alexander Hernandez, the reality is that Cerrone has lost 6 of his last 10 fights. And 4 of the 6 losses have come from getting knocked out. So Cerrone’s chin isn’t what it used to be, but he still has plus striking and above average grappling. McGregor is 31 years old. 9-2 UFC record. He’s been submitted by Nate Diaz and Khabib Nurmagomedov. But the wins have been impressive. Diego Brandao. Dustin Poirier. Chad Mendes. Jose Aldo. Beat Diaz in the rematch. Eddie Alvarez. 7 of the 9 wins have been knockouts. The only 2 decision wins he has was against Max Holloway when he tore his ACL in the fight. And the Diaz rematch. McGregor is a generational talent. Plus plus striking. And his wrestling has improved to above average as shown in stuffing Alvarez’s take downs. Based on tools, this should be McGregor’s fight to lose. But there’s a bunch of questions. Is McGregor the same fighter? A lot of times when champions lose the belt, they never come back the same. And what about McGregor’s cardio? Will McGregor’s power translate at 170 lbs the same way it does at 155 lbs? So there’s ways Cerrone can win. If McGregor can’t knock Cerrone out in the first couple rounds, he could be in trouble. Cerrone’s cardio is better. I could definitely see Cerrone taking over the last 2 rounds of the 5 round fight. What’s most likely to happen? Well, we can’t forget that historically, Cerrone is not at his best in huge fights. He doesn’t look like he normally does. And he’s been knocked out his last 2 fights. And he’s not likely to try and take McGregor down. So can Cerrone’s chin hold up early to give him a chance to win? I predict, no. McGregor by 2nd round knockout.
Holly Holm vs Raquel Pennington
—Holly Holm
Holm is 38 years old. 5-5 UFC record. Has only lost to champions. And for what it’s worth I don’t think Holm lost to Germaine de Randamie at 145 lbs. Losses have come against Miesha Tate. Valentina Shevchenko. Cris Cyborg. And Amanda Nunes. She beat Raquel Pennington before via split decision. Holm of course has her signature knockout over Ronda Rousey. Since then, she’s also knocked out Bethe Correira and busted out wrestling to beat Megan Anderson at 145 lbs. Holm still has plus striking paired with above average power. And she also has above average wrestling. Pennington is 31 years old. 9-5 in the UFC. She lost to Jessica Rokoczy on TUF. Don’t know how that happened. The other 4 losses have come against champions in Jessica Andrade at 135 lbs. Holm, Nunes. And de Randamie. Her best wins include a submission over Tonya Evinger, a split decision against Correira, split decision over Irene Aldana, and a win over a retiring Tate. Pennington really doesn’t have any stand out tools. She wins like the Diaz brothers. With volume, pace, and cardio. Pennington has above average striking and average wrestling. For what it’s worth, Holm’s losses were more competitive than Pennington’s losses. Holm was winning against Tate before being submitted in the 5th round. The Shevchenko loss was competitive. I thought she won against de Randamie. And the Cyborg fight was close. Pennington’s loss to Holm was a split decision, but she also lost to Rakoczy who retired with a 1-5 pro record. Lost to Andrade at 135 lbs. And was out classed by de Randamie. And in picking this fight, I also have to give Holm an edge in that she has the confidence in winning the first fight. Fight will stay on the feet. Holm has the better striking. Holm by decision.
Alexey Oleinik vs Maurice Greene
—Alexey Olienik
Olienik is pound for pound one of the most under rated fighters in the UFC who has won me many an upset. 42 years old. 6-4 in the UFC. Lost to Daniel Omielanczuk. But I think that was more of an aberration. Besides that, he’s lost to top guys. Curtis Blaydes. Alistair Overeem. Walt Harris. All 6 of Oleinik’s wins have been finishes. A knockout over wrestler Jared Rosholt. His best wins include submissions over Travis Browne and Mark Hunt. Oleinik has easy plus grappling. And he also has average striking. Maurice Greene is 33 years old. Technically, he’s 3-1 in the UFC. But he lost his last pro fight before signing with the UFC to current UFC fighter Jared Hughes. And in his last fight, Sergei Pavlovich knocked him out. Greene has 2 finishes over guys not in the UFC anymore and in a rematch with Hughes, Greene won by split decision. Greene is well rounded. But his striking and grappling are both average. Easy fight to pick. Oleinik is on another level when it comes to the grappling. He’ll be able to take Greene down and will submit him in the 1st round.
Claudia Gadelha vs Alexa Grasso
—Alexa Grasso
This is going to be a really close fight. Grasso is 26 years old. 3-3 UFC record, but she’s faced top level competition. Felice Herrig. Tatiana Suarez. And her last fight was a majority decision loss against Carla Esparza. Grasso has beat Mizuki Inoue, Randa Markos and her best career win was over Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Grasso’s striking took a step forward in the last year and I can now give it a plus grade, although it’s paired with average power. And her wrestling has improved to where it’s now average. Claudia Gadelha is 31 years old. 6-4 UFC record. 3 of the 4 losses have come against former champions Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Jessica Andrade. And she got out struck by Nina Ansaroff. Gadelha has beat Cortney Casey, Markos, a split decision against Esparza, and a submission win over Kowalkiewicz. She’s got above average wrestling, average submissions, and average striking. Very well rounded. MMA math says that Gadelha should win. Gadelha beat Esparza. Grasso lost to Esparza. But both fights were very close and two completely different fights. Gadelha’s and Esparza’s wrestling cancelled out and they had a close fight on the feet. And with Esparza vs Grasso, Grasso won the stand up, but Esparza took Grasso down enough to win. I think Esparza’s wrestling is better than Gadelha’s. And I think Grasso’s wrestling will be a bit improved in this fight. Therefore, I think Grasso gets taken down a couple times but keeps the fight standing up long enough to win the striking exchanges and eke out a split decision win.
Anthony Pettis vs Diego Ferreira
—Anthony Pettis
Ferreira is 34 years old. 7-2 UFC record. Has won 5 in a row. His only losses have been against Beneil Dariush, getting out wrestled, and getting knocked out by Dustin Poirier. His best wins have been over Oliver Aubin-Mercier, Rustam Khalibov, and Mairbek Taisumov. Ferreira’s grappling is above average. Striking is above average. Pettis is 32 years old. 9-8 UFC record. The book on him has been written. He loses to fighters that have the wrestling to take him down and avoid submission attempts. And he loses to strikers with better cardio that push the pace. But Pettis is way better on the ground than some people might think. Out of Pettis’ 9 wins, 4 of them are submission wins. Pettis still has plus striking as evident by his knockout over 170 lb contender Stephen Thompson. But I also grade Pettis as having above average grappling. To be blunt, my knee jerk reaction when this fight was announced was to pick Ferreira. Because I bought into the whole, Ferreira will take him down and Pettis will lose. But I rewatched Ferreira vs Beneil Dariush and Ferreira’s wrestling is lacking. Grappling is great, but he’s not a take down and lay on you guy. I’m convinced that even if Ferreira is able to take Pettis down, Pettis will be able to get back up. And Ferreira can be knocked out. Pettis has the better striking, better power. I’m going with the upset. 1st round knockout for Pettis.
Maycee Barber vs Roxanne Modafferi
—Maycee Barber
Some people might look at this fight with Barber vs Roxanne Modafferi and say, Ok, here is the litmus test for Barber. Let’s see how good she is. But the reality is that JJ Aldrich and Gillian Roberson are better than Modafferi and Barber knocked out both already. The difference is Modafferi just has better name recognition. Barber is 21 years old. She’s a generational prospect and has an excellent chance of becoming champion at some point. 8-0 pro record. 4-0 UFC record. All 4 wins have been knockouts. All 4 opponents have been quality. Jamie Colleen. Hannah Cifers. JJ Aldrich. Gillian Robertson. The Aldrich win was Barber’s most impressive because she lost the 1st round, but made adjustments, and knocked Aldrich out in the 2nd. Barber’s wrestling is plus. Her striking just in the past year has improved to plus. And it’s likely both tools develop to become plus plus. Modafferi is 37 years old. She’s had a career renaissance the past few years deciding to focus on her wrestling and top game. It’s carried her to a 4-4 UFC record in her 2nd UFC stint. And the losses have been against top 10 opponents. Sijara Eubanks twice. Nicco Montano. Jennifer Maia. And Modafferi does have a knockout win over Emily Whitmire and a split decision win against Antonina Shevchenko. Modafferi has above average wrestling. But the style matchup here is a nightmare for Modafferi. She won’t be able to take Barber down. And Barber is way, way more advanced on the feet. This won’t be pretty. 1st round knockout for Barber.
Sodiq Yusuff vs Andre Fili
—Sodiq Yusuff
Yusuff is 26 years old. 4-0 in the UFC so far. 10-1 pro record. Only loss was getting knocked out from a 5-1 striker. But the wins have been impressive. Mike Davis. Sheymon Moraes. And a knockout over Gabriel Benitez. That’s quality in your first 4 UFC fights. Striking is plus. He also has average wrestling. Skills wise, Andre Fili right now is at his peak. This is the high point for him right now, coming off the best win in his career, knocking out Sheymon Moraes. 29 years old. 8-5 UFC record. Most of the losses have been against the top 10 in the division. Max Holloway. Yair Rodriguez. Calvin Kattar. But his most recent loss was a split division to 145 lb Michael Johnson. Aside from the Moraes win, he also has knocked out Benitez and has a split decision win over Dennis Bermudez and a decision win over Myles Jury. Striking is above average. And Fili also has average wrestling. This fight is pretty simple. It’ll be on the feet. Yusuff has better striking and better power. He’ll knock Fili out in the 2nd round.
Nasrat Haqparast vs Drew Dober
—Nasrat Haqparast
Ok, I’m going to stop doubting Haqparast now. I’m just going to forget his loss to Marcin Held and chalk it up to him fighting on short notice when he was just 22 years old. Now 24 years, Haqparast has a 3-1 UFC record. Since the Held loss, Haqparast has beat some decent guys. Marc Diakiese. Thibault Gouti. And his most impressive fight was knocking out Joaquim Silva. Haqparast’s striking is an easy plus with a ceiling for more. And training at Tri-Star, his wrestling has improved to now being average. Drew Dober, 31 years old, started his UFC career at 1-3. He was getting beat by wrestlers. Since then, he’s gone 6-2. But the turn around has had more to do with more favorable match ups. The 2 losses did come from Dober being take down. He lost to Oliver Aubin-Mercier and Beneil Dariush. Overall, Dober has a 7-5 UFC record and is a lower tier gate keeper. Dober has above average striking. Haqparast has the better striking. He can win there. But I’m also going to predict Haqparast mixes in some take downs and exploits Dober’s weakness. I think he mixes and matches to cruise to a decision win.
Grant Dawson vs Chas Skelly
—Grant Dawson
On the surface, this might look like an easy fight to pick, but it’s trickier than you might think. Dawson is the hot prospect right now. 25 years old. 14-1 pro record. 3-0 in the UFC. And in my opinion, he had his true breakout in his last fight by taking down a standout wrestler in Michael Trizano and submitting him. It wowed me because almost all of Dawson’s other wins have been over cans. Trizano was a big step up. I thought he’d be able to stuff Dawson’s take downs and piece him up on the feet, but nope, Dawson got the take downs. Based on that, Dawson has easy plus wrestling and submissions. But the tool might be even better than that, like there could be upside for a plus plus grade, I just haven’t seen enough against quality competition. Chas Skelly is 34 years old. 7-4 UFC record. Successful mid tier gate keeper. His losses against Mirsad Bektic and Darren Elkins carry no shame. But in the past couple years, he’s lost to Jason Knight and Bobby Moffett. Most of Skelly’s wins have been against guys unable to stay in the UFC. But he does have a decent submission win over Chris Greutzemacher. Above average wrestling and submissions. And his striking has improved to now being average. So this fight is tricky in that if Skelly can somehow stuff Dawson’s take downs, it’s very likely he wins the striking exchanges. But I think if Dawson could get Trizano on the ground, he’ll be able to do it to Skelly too. Dawson by 2nd round submission.
Aleksa Camur vs Justin Ledet
—Aleksa Camur
It’s possible Justin Ledet might be better at heavyweight. 31 years old. 3-2 UFC record overall. 2-0 at heavyweight. 1-2 at light heavyweight. The losses did come against the top 10 of the division. Aleksandar Rakic and Johnny Walker. But the split decision win over Azunna Anyanwu was lackluster. His biggest heavyweight win was a submission over Mark Godbeer. Ledet has above average grappling. He also has average striking paired with below average power. Camur is 24 years old. 5-0 pro record. 1-0 UFC record. Won his debut UFC fight knocking out a 4-0 grappler. Camur also has knocked out a 4-1 grappler outside the UFC. Small sample size, but I grade Camur as having above average striking to go along with average wrestling. I don’t see Ledet being able to get the fight on the ground. Fight plays out on the feet. The striking technique is close to equal, but Camur has knockout power and Ledet doesn’t. I’m picking Camur by 2nd round knockout.
Tim Elliott vs Askar Askarov
—Askar Askarov
It’s not that often a fighter prepares to make their UFC debut against a top 10 ranked fighter in Brandon Moreno. What’s even more rare is that Askarov was the betting favorite going into that fight. Askarov is 27 years old. 10-0-1 pro record. I thought Moreno edged Asakrov out in the striking to win the fight, but the judges ruled it a draw. Askarov has submission wins over a 6-0 grappler, a well rounded 19-6 fighter, a well rounded 37-5 fighter, and a 7-2 grappler. He also knocked out a 9-2 grappler. So because of the level of competition Askarov has submitted, I give his wrestling and submission game a plus grade. He also has average striking. Tim Elliott is 32 years old. 4-7 UFC record between 2 stints. He lost to Zach Makovsky and got submitted by Ben Nguyen. His biggest wins have come over Louis Smolka and Mark de la Rosa. Elliott has above average wrestling and average submissions. Pretty easy fight to pick as the wrestling likely cancels itself out, fight plays on the feet, Askarov’s striking is way more advanced. Askarov by decision.
Ode Osbourne vs Brian Kelleher
—Brian Kelleher
This step up in competition is going to be too steep for Ode Osbourne. 27 years old. 6-2 pro record. Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter in his UFC debut. Osbourne has lost to a 2-0 fighter and has been submitted by a well rounded 4-1 fighter. All other wins have been over cans, including a split decision win over a 8-5 journeyman. Osbourne has average grappling. Kelleher is 33 years old. 3-3 in the UFC. But the losses have come against top tier competition. Marlon Vera. John Lineker. And top prospect Montel Jackson. Kelleher has a submission win over Iuri Alcantara and knocked out Damian Stasiak. On top of that, even more impressively, Kelleher has not 1, but 2 wins over Julio Arce in a regional promotion. Kelleher has above average striking and above average grappling. So in this fight, it makes sense for Kelleher to keep the fight on the feet where he’ll have better striking and I see him winning by decision.
Sabina Mazo vs JJ Aldrich
—JJ Aldrich
I expect this to be a razor close fight. Aldrich is 27 years old. 4-2 in the UFC. She lost her UFC debut to Juliana Lima by not being able to stuff the take downs. And got knocked out by Maycee Barber. She has decision wins over Polyana Viana and Lauren Mueller. Striking is near plus paired with improved power that I now grade as average. Aldrich also has average wrestling. Sabino Mazo is 22 years old. 1-1 UFC record so far. She got out grappled by Maryna Moroz. But then she bounced back to out strike Shana Dobson. Mazo also has wins over an 8-0 grappler and a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Mazo’s striking is above average paired with below average power. And based on her last fight against Dobson, her wrestling has improved to where it’s close to average. To me, this fight is so hard to pick because the striking is pretty close to equal here. But I’m picking Aldrich because there’s more reasons that she could win. In a stand up fight, Aldrich has knockout power and could knock Mazo out. Mazo doesn’t have that same power. It’s also possible Aldrich is able to take Mazo down. But Aldrich definitely has more experience than Mazo. I think Aldrich mixes it up with the wrestling and power shots to by decision.