-Korean Zombie: If this fight was happening just a couple years ago, I probably would pick Frankie Edgar to win the fight. But Edgar is 38 years old now and taking this fight on 3 weeks notice. 8-4 UFC record at 145 lbs. Has only lost to Jose Aldo (twice), Brian Ortega, and Max Holloway. So only the very tippy top fighters in the division. Edgar has beaten a who’s who. Charles Oliveira. Cub Swanson. Urijah Faber. Chad Mendes. Jeremy Stephens. This is all 2013-2016. His biggest, somewhat recent win was in 2017 when he mauled Yair Rodriguez, due to Rodriguez’s take down defense not holding up. Then he got knocked out by Brian Ortega and to my eyes, he hasn’t looked the same since. After that fight, Edgar rematched Cub Swanson and barely squeaked out a decision win. Then he got a title shot against Max Holloway and was completely shutout, scoring very little offense. I used to have Edgar graded with plus striking, plus wrestling, and plus cardio. I think all his best tools, the striking, wrestling, cardio have all regressed to being above average. Zombie is 32 years old. Technically, he’s 5-2 in the UFC. But I still think of him as being 6-1. I’m stubborn with the Zombie vs Rodriguez fight. Zombie was about to take the decision win when Rodriguez knocked him out with 1 second left in the fight. Zombie’s only over UFC loss was getting knocked out by a in-his-prime Jose Aldo back in 2013. Zombie has knocked out Mark Hominick and Renato Moicano. And he’s submitted Dustin Poirier. Elite title contenders. Zombie has plus striking and plus grappling. Zombie is better everywhere, although I’m not confident Zombie could take Edgar down and keep him there. Most likely this is a stand up fight. Edgar won’t have the same cardio from not having a full camp. I’m confident that if the Zombie was able to knock Moicano out in the 1st round, he can do the same against Edgar.
-Aleksandar Rakic: Rakic is an elite prospect and has the upside of possibly becoming champion. That’s how good he is. 27 years old. 12-1 pro record. 4-0 in the UFC so far. His only loss was his pro debut back in 2011 to a fighter also making his pro debut. Rakic got caught in a guillotine choke. In the UFC, Rakic dominated against Francisco Barroso and Justin Ledet. He knocked out Devin Clark, then knocked out Jimi Manuwa. All of those guys are pretty good. Rakic has striking that is near plus plus. But what makes him stand out is that he also has above average wrestling. Volkan Oezdemir is a quality light heavyweight. 4-3 UFC record, but the 3 losses came against opponents in the top 5 of the division. Daniel Cormier. Anthony Smith. Dominick Reyes. Oezdemir got the title fight against Cormier by beating Ovince St. Preux by split decision. Then knocking out Misha Cirkunov and Jimi Manuwa. Oezdemir has plus striking and seeing his last fight, a win over Ilir Latifi, I think his wrestling has improved to being close to average. I like Rakic to win because he has more than one path to win. It’s possible Rakic is able to knock Oezdemir out. But if he can’t and Oezdemir’s chin holds up, Rakic could also mix in some take downs too to score points. Ultimately though, I’m picking Rakic by 2nd round knockout.
-Doo Ho Choi: This matchup makes for a very soft landing spot for Choi to bounce back here. Choi is 28 years old. 3-2 UFC record. Started his octagon career with 3 consecutive 1st round knockouts. Juan Manuel Puig. Sam Sicillia. Thiago Tavares. Then he went against the top 5 in the division and lost to Cub Swanson and was knocked out by Jeremy Stephens. Choi hasn’t fought in almost 2 years. He has plus striking. Charles Jourdain is 24 years old. 9-2 pro record. Got out wrestled by Desmond Green in his UFC debut. He’s got a submission win over a 9-3 striker. But all his other wins are over cans. Jourdain’s striking is average. This is a total mismatch and I see no path to victory for Jourdain. Choi is going to knock him out quick. 1st round.
-Da Un Jung: Jung should be a big favorite in this fight but for some reason, the odds have Jung vs Mike Rodriguez as a pick em. Rodriguez is 31 years old. 10-4 pro record. 2-2 UFC record. He knocked out a 7-4 striker and knocked out an 8-2 striker. For his losses, he got out wrestled by Devin Clark and his last fight out, lost to a 13-5 striker. All other wins are over cans. Rodriguez has average striking. Jung is also 31 years old. 12-2 pro record. Submitted Khadis Ibragimov in his UFC debut, which was impressive, considering how high everyone is on Ibragimov. Jung lost his 2nd and 3rd pro fights to well rounded journeymen fighters. Since then, he’s won 11 in a row. Besides Ibragimov, his biggest wins have been against a 4-0 grappler and a 6-1 grappling heavyweight. Jung has above average striking and grappling that is close to average. I’m pretty convinced that this fight will stay on the feet and that Jung has the better striking and better cardio. I like Jung by decision.
-Marc-Andre Barriault: Jun Yong Park is 28 years old. 10-4 pro record. Got submitted in his UFC debut to Anthony Hernandez. Lost his pro debut to a 14-11 striker. He also lost a split decision against a 5-4 wrestler. His only quality win was a decision win over a 18-6 striker. All other wins over cans. All tools are below average but striking is his best skill. Barriault is 29 years old. 11-3 pro record. 0-2 in the UFC so far. Lost to Andrew Sanchez in his UFC debut then lost a close split decision to Krzystof Jotko. He also lost a split decision against a 2-1 wrestler. Barriault’s biggest wins have been knockouts over a 9-3 striker and a 7-1 striker. Barriault has average striking. I expect this fight to play out on the feet. Barriault should have the better striking and I’m picking him to win by decision.
-Kyung Ho Kang: Kang has put together a very quiet 5-2 UFC record. 32 years old now. Kang’s only 2 UFC losses have come against Chico Camus and Ricardo Ramos. 2 fighters who were able to contain Kang’s grappling. The quality of wins leave a bit to be desired. Kang’s biggest wins have been a submission win over Guido Cannetti and a split decision win over Brandon Davis. I grade Kang as having grappling that is near plus. Pingyuan Liu is 26 years old. 13-6 pro record. 2-1 in the UFC so far. He got knocked out by Jonathan Martinez. And the wins were a decision over Damian Stasiak and a split decision over Martin Day. He’s interesting because 4 of his 6 losses came when he was 17-18 years old. But besides the 2 UFC wins, the only other quality win he has is a submission win over a 6-1-1 grappler. All other wins over cans. Pingyuan has average grappling and average striking. I see Kang having no problem in being able to take Pingyuan down. I don’t think Kang will get the submission, but he’ll do enough on the ground to win by decision.
-Ciryl Gane: Tanner Boser is 28 years old. 17-5 pro record. He surprised me in beating Daniel Spitz in his UFC debut. My overall opinion on him hasn’t changed. All wins outside the UFC are over cans. Boser has losses against a 17-7 striker and a well rounded 4-4 fighter. I’ve upgraded his striking tool to being average. Gane looks to be on the path of becoming a contender. 5-0 pro record. 2-0 in the UFC so far. Surprisingly 2 submission wins, 1 over Raphael Pessoa and the other against Don’tale Mayes. Gane has easy plus striking. He also has grappling that is at least average, but might be better. Gane could win this fight wherever he wants. I’ll go with another submission win for Gane. 1st round.
-Suman Mokhtarian: Mokhtarian is 27 years old. 8-1 pro record. Got knocked out by Sodiq Yusuff in his UFC debut. No shame there. All of his wins are over cans. Average striking. Sung Woo Choi is also 27 years old. 7-3 pro record. 0-2 in the UFC so far. He’s also been knocked out by a 5-3 striker. All of his wins are over cans. Choi has striking that is close to average. I see Mokhtarian being able to take Choi down and will do enough on the ground to grind out a decision win.
-Omar Morales: Easy fight to pick. Morales really surprised me in his UFC debut. 34 years old. 8-0 pro record. He surprised me because his first 7 wins were all over cans. He took on a well rounded 12-2 fighter. I thought the step up in competition would be too much. I thought Morales was a grappler with 4 of his 7 wins coming by submission. But his striking blew me away. Especially the leg kicks that TKO’ed his opponent. Based on what I saw and who he beat, I grade Morales with above average striking and average grappling. Dong Hyun Ma is 31 years old. 3-4 UFC record. All 4 of Ma’s losses have come from being knocked out, including one of them from Dominique Steele. All 3 of his wins have been over guys no longer in the UFC, including a split decision win over one of them. Ma is well rounded but all of his tools are below average. Morales has the grappling to keep this on the feet and will knock Ma out in the 1st round.
-Alexandre Pantoja: Matt Schnell has looked very improved in the past year. But what’s interesting is that when you talk about a fighter’s improvement, it’s usually based around them rounding out their game. Improving weaknesses. In Schnell’s case, the improvement has been focused on making his best skill even better. 29 years old. 4-2 UFC record. Got knocked out by Rob Font in his UFC debut at 135 lbs. No shame there. Moved down to 125 lbs. Got knocked out by Hector Sandoval. Not a good start. Since then, he beat Marco Beltran by decision. Then took a split decision win over Naoki Inoue. Eh. Since then, he submitted Louis Smolka and Jordan Espinosa, both in the 1st round. Schnell’s grappling has now improved to where I grade it as plus. Pantoja is 29 years old. 5-2 UFC record. Got out wrestled by Dustin Ortiz. And got out struck by Deiveson Figueiredo. So he’s lost only to top guys. His best wins have been a decision win over Brandon Moreno, submitting Yuta Sasaki and knocking out Wilson Reis. Pantoja has plus striking and above average grappling. The Reis win especially makes me confident Pantoja will be able to stuff the take downs and make this a stand up fight. And stand up is an area where I haven’t seen much improvement from Schnell. I’m picking Pantoja by 2nd round knockout.
-Raoni Barcelos: Barcelos is 30 years old. 14-1 pro record. 3-0 UFC record, although, before signing with the UFC, he beat UFC fighters Bobby Moffett and Dan Moret. In the UFC, he’s knocked out Kurt Holobaugh and submitted Chris Gutierrez. Striking is plus. Barcelos also has average wrestling. Said Nurmagomedov is 27 years old. 13-1 pro record. 2-0 in the UFC so far. The 1 loss was against former UFC fighter Magomed Bibulatov. Said’s best win was his last fight out, knocking out Ricardo Ramos. The other UFC win was a split decision over Justin Scoggins. Said also has wins over a well rounded 9-2 fighter, a well rounded 11-2 fighter, and a 16-3 grappler. Decision wins. I grade Said to have above average wrestling and striking that is close to average. This fight will be won or lost based on if Said can take Barcelos down. And based on Barcelos’ experience against pretty good grapplers in Moffett and Moret, I think he’ll be able to stay on his feet for most of the fight. Barcelos has a monster striking advantage and I see him winning a clear cut decision.
-Miranda Granger: Granger is a top prospect. 27 years old. 5-0 pro record. Beat Hannah Goldy in her UFC debut. Also has a submission win over Jamie Colleen. Grappling is above average with the upside for more. Amanda Lemos is 32 years old. 6-1-1 pro record. She hasn’t fought in two and a half years. Got knocked out by Leslie Smith in her only UFC fight. All her other wins are over cans. She fought a 2-0 fighter to a draw and then knocked the fighter out in a rematch. I grade her striking as average. Granger has the best tool in this fight. She’ll get the take downs. And I see Granger having no problem in submitting Lemos in the 1st round.
-Ryan Benoit: Not sure why Heili Alateng is in the UFC. 27 years old. 13-7-1 pro record. He did beat a 6-1 striker by decision in his UFC debut. Most of his losses are against journeymen and below average prospects. Outside the UFC, he did knockout a 5-1 striker. But all his other wins are over cans. All of Alateng’s tools are below average, but striking is his best skill. Benoit is 30 years old. 10-5 pro record. 3-3 UFC record. How does Benoit lose? He can be taken down, and he can be submitted. Was submitted by Josh Sampo and Ben Nguyen. Showed a little bit of grappling improvement in losing to Brandon Moreno by split decision. Benoit’s signature win is a knockout over Sergio Pettis. He also has a knockout over a well rounded 13-2 prospect. Benoit has plus striking and still has some upside if he can work on his take down defense and ground game. Benoit is going to starch Alateng and knock him out in the 1st round.
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