Anthony Smith vs Glover Teixeira
—Anthony Smith
Smith is 31 years old. 8-4 UFC record overall. 3-1 UFC record at 205 lbs. Got submitted by Antonio Braga Neto in 2013. Lost to Cezar Ferreira in 2016. Submitted Alexander Gustafsson and Volkan Oezdemir. Knocked out Shogun Rua. Smith has plus striking. He also has near plus grappling and above average wrestling. Glover Teixeira is 40 years old. 13-5 UFC record. Knocked out Ryan Bader and Misha Cirkunov. Submitted Ovince St. Preux and Ion Cutelaba. Beat Nikita Krylov by split decision. Teixeira has near plus grappling and near plus striking. This is a projection pick. On paper, both fighters are pretty similar. Both very well rounded. But both of their careers are going in opposite directions. Teixeira is likely towards the end of his. And Smith is firmly in his prime with the possibility of him developing a little more. He’s coming off the biggest win in his career, submitting Gustafsson. The other big difference in the fight I think will be the cardio. Smith puts on a high pace and he really beat Gustafsson and Oezdemir in the later rounds by having more gas in the tank. Smith should have the better striking and because he has better wrestling, should get the better of the ground game if the fight goes there. Smith by decision.
Ben Rothwell vs Ovince St. Preux
—Ovince St. Preux
Ben Rothwell is 38 years old. 7-6 in the UFC. Lost to Blagoy Ivanov and Andrei Arlovski. Knocked out Alistair Overeem in 2014. Rothwell has above average wrestling. He also has above average striking. St. Preux is 37 years old. 12-8 UFC record. He’s making his heavyweight debut. All 8 of his losses have come against top 10 fighters. Knocked out Shogun Rua back in 2014. Also knocked out Corey Anderson in 2017. Submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk. St. Preux has above average striking paired with plus power. He also has above average wrestling and above average grappling. There’s exceptions, but the trend lately has been that most fighters that move up in weight are having success. And St. Preux is up there in age. This is probably a great time for him to test the waters at heavyweight. Rothwell has the wrestling to neutralize St. Preux’s grappling. Fight will play out on the feet. It’s tricky to pick St. Preux because no one knows how his power will translate at heavyweight, so this is a bit of a projection pick. I see this fight being close, in the striking exchanges, but St. Preux should have a power advantage. Even though Rothwell hasn’t been knocked out since 2009, I’m going out on a limb to predict St Preux by 2nd round knockout.
Alexander Hernandez vs Drew Dober
—Drew Dober
Alexander Hernandez is 27 years old. 11-2 pro record. 3-1 UFC record. Knocked out Beneil Dariush. Beat Oliver Aubin-Mercier and Francisco Trinaldo. Hernandez has near plus wrestling. He also has above average striking paired with average power. Dober is 31 years old. 8-5 UFC record. Lost to Sean Spencer back in 2013. Knocked out Nasrat Haqparast and Marco Polo Reyes. Beat Scott Holtzman. Dober has plus striking. He also has above average wrestling and average grappling. Dober started his UFC career at 1-3. He was getting beat by wrestlers. Since then, he’s gone 7-2. But. The 2 losses did come from Dober being take down. But. The Dariush loss showed improvement as Dariush was only able to take Dober down once and that was in the middle of the 2nd round. I grade Hernandez’s wrestling on par with Dariush’s wrestling. But the big difference is that Dariush also had the grappling to end the fight. Hernnadez doesn’t. So if Hernandez can only get Dober down a couple times, he’s in trouble. Hernandez is no slouch on the feet, but he doesn’t have the same power Dober has. I think Dober is going to be on his feet and striking long enough to catch Hernandez and knock him out in the 2nd round.
Ray Borg vs Ricky Simon
—Ricky Simon
Ray Borg is 26 years old. 7-4 in the UFC overall. 1-1 UFC record at 135 lbs. Borg has lost a split decision to Dustin Ortiz. Lost to Justin Scoggins at 125 lbs. Lost to Casey Kenney at 135 lbs. The common theme is he’s lost close fights to guys that have wrestling on the same level that he does. Borg has wins over Jussier Formiga and Louis Smolka at 125 lbs. Borg has near plus wrestling and average grappling. He also has average striking. Simon is 27 years old. 15-3 pro record. 4-2 UFC record. Got knocked out by Urijah Faber. Submitted Merab Dvalishvili at the very end of the fight. Beat Montel Jackson and Rani Yahya. Simon has easy plus wrestling and average grappling. He also has above average striking paired with below average power. Borg’s wrestling has been flat out dominant at 125 lbs. But there is a big caveat in that he repeatedly misses weight. He’s only had 2 fights at 135 lbs. And the contest with Kenney I think was a good litmus test to show that he’s not the same fighter against bigger guys. So, Simon likely has the better wrestling. He could out wrestle Borg and win a close fight. But I think Simon uses the wrestling to make it a stand up fight where he has a pretty good advantage over Borg, who’s the more one dimensional fighter. I’m picking Simon to out strike Borg and win by decision.
Marvin Vettori vs Karl Roberson
—Marvin Vettori
Vettori is 26 years old. 4-2-1 UFC record. Lost a split decision to Israel Adesanya. Fought Omari Akhmedov to a draw. Beat Cezar Ferreira and Andrew Sanchez. Vettori has near plus striking paired with average power. He also has above average wrestling and above average grappling. Karl Roberson is 29 years old. 5-2 UFC record. Got submitted by Cezar Ferreira, back when he lacked wrestling. Knocked out Ryan Spann. Submitted Darren Stewart and Roman Kopylov. Roberson has above average striking paired with average power. Roberson also has average wrestling and average grappling. Both fighters are very similar on the feet. They focus more of volume, than power. But Vettori’s wrestling and grappling is on another level and will be the difference in the fight. And the threat of the take downs, by itself, should open up more opportunities for Vettori to land strikes. On paper, it could be a close fight, but Vettori has been developing at a pretty rapid pace. I see a better version sure and think he wins by decision.
Andrei Arlovski vs Philipe Lins
—Philipe Lins
Andrei Arlovski is 41 years old. 7-9 UFC record in his 2nd stint. He lost 5 in a row and looked done, but since then he’s gone 3-4. Submitted by Josh Barnett. Lost to Marcin Tybura and Tai Tuivasa. Lost a split decision to Augusto Sakai. Beat Stefan Struve and Ben Rothwell. Arlovski has above average striking paired with average power. He also has average wrestling. Lins is 34 years old. 14-3 pro record. Got knocked out by a 12-7 striker. Knocked out Jared Rosholt. Knocked out a 6-2 grappler in just his 2nd pro fight. Knocked out a 7-2 grappler, a 7-2 striker, and a well rounded 18-5 fighter. Submitted a 7-2 striker, a 6-1 grappler, and a well rounded 12-3 fighter. Lins has near plus striking. He also has above average wrestling and above average grappling. My knee jerk reaction in looking at this match up was to think, okay, Lins has a great resume. But let’s see what he does going against a legit guy like Arlovski. But then again, Arlovski has only won 3 of his last 12 fights. In reality, a lot of the fighters Lins has finished in Bellator and the PFL are probably on par with Arlovski. Arlovski is 41 years old. He got knocked out in his last fight in 29 seconds. I think the same thing happens here. The power difference is too big. Lins by 1st round knockout.
Michael Johnson vs Thiago Moises
—Michael Johnson
Johnson is 33 years old. 9-9 UFC record at 155 lbs. Johnson has lost to Jonathan Brookins and Stevie Ray. And got submitted by Reza Madadi. Knocked out Dustin Poirier. Beat Edson Barboza and is the last man to beat Tony Ferguson. Johsnon has above average striking paired with plus power. He also has above average wrestling. Moises is 25 years old. 2-2 UFC record. Lost to Damir Ismagulov. Knocked out Jamall Emmers outside the UFC. Submitted a 4-0 grappler. Beat an 8-1 grappler. Moises has average wrestling and average grappling. He also has average striking. Moises is well rounded, but he doesn’t have any standout tools. That’s going to be problematic against Johnson who will keep the fight on the feet to try and get to his plus power. Moises has never been knocked out in his career, but he’s never fought against a fighter who has the power Johnson does. Johnson by 2nd round knockout.
Sijara Eubanks vs Sarah Moras
—Sijara Eubanks
Eubanks is 34 years old. 5-2 UFC record. Lost her last fight to Bethe Correia. Beat Roxanne Modafferi twice. Eubanks has above average striking paired with average power. She also has near plus wrestling. Sarah Moras is 31 years old. 5-5 in the UFC. Lost to Lucie Pudilova and Talita Bernardo. Submitted Ashlee Evans-Smith. Moras has above average grappling and average striking. I was pretty surprised when Correia upset Eubanks. Maybe Correia’s wrestling really improved going into that fight. But I’m comfortable in picking Eubanks here because of her overall track record. She had the wrestling to stuff Aspen Ladd and Modafferi. She’ll be able to stuff Moras’ take downs too. On the feet, Eubanks has an advantage and that’ll carry her to a decision win.
Gabriel Benitez vs Omar Morales
—Omar Morales
Omar Morales is 34 years old. 9-0 pro record. 2-0 UFC record. He surprised me because his first 7 wins were all over cans. He took on a well rounded 12-2 fighter. I thought the step up in competition would be too much. I thought Morales was a grappler with 4 of his 7 wins coming by submission. But his striking blew me away. Especially the leg kicks that TKO’ed his opponent. Morales has near plus striking. He also has wrestling that’s a little above average paired with average grappling. Gabriel Benitez is 31 years old. 5-3 in the UFC at 145 lbs. But he’s making his 155 lb. debut in this fight. Knocked out by Andre Fili. Lost to Enrique Barzola. Submitted Sam Siciliia. Beat Jason Knight. Benitez has striking that’s a little above average. He also has average wrestling and average grappling. Benitez is pretty well rounded but lacks elite tools. Morales was really impressive in his last fight over Dong Hyun Ma. Very likely to be a stand up fight as both fighters are about equal on the ground. Even though Morales is 34 years old, he’s still new to MMA, still developing, and he’s likely on his way to a plus striking tool. I think his striking takes another step forward and he knocks Benitez out in the 2nd round.
Brian Kelleher vs Hunter Azure
—Brian Kelleher
Kelleher is 33 years old. 4-3 in the UFC. Knocked out Damian Stasiak. Submitted Iuri Alcantara. He also has 2 wins over Julio Arce outside the UFC, one of them being a submission win. Kelleher has above average striking and above average grappling. Hunter Azure is 28 years old. 8-0 pro record. 2-0 UFC record. Beat Brad Katona in his last fight. All other wins over cans. Azure has wrestling that’s a little above average. He also has average striking paired with below average power. Very close fight. Tough to pick because Azure is so green when it comes to going against top level competition. He has wrestling. But in his last fight with Katona, Azure never went on offense with the wrestling. He only used it to stuff take downs and get back up. Will he be able to take Kelleher down? Maybe. Maybe a couple times. But that’d be a dangerous place for Azure as Kelleher has a monster grappling advantage. But I think what ends up happening is Kelleher keeps the fight on the feet where he’d have the biggest advantage and that’s in the striking. Kelleher’s striking is very under rated. He hung in there with John Lineker before finally getting knocked out in the 3rd round. Kelleher is going to win the striking exchanges which will lead to him winning by decision.
Chase Sherman vs Isaac Viilanueva
—Chase Sherman
Sherman is 30 years old. 2-5 UFC record. Lost to Justin Ledet. Beat Damian Grabowski. Sherman has striking that’s a little above average. Isaac Villanueva is 36 years old. 16-9 pro record. Got knocked out by a 2-1 fighter and a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Lost to a 4-0 wrestler. Knocked out a well rounded 8-3 fighter and a 9-4 striker. Villanueva has average striking. The big insight into this fight to know is that Villanueva normally fights at 205 lbs. He’s taking this fight on short notice and fighting at heavyweight. And he’s fighting Sherman, who normally fights around 250 lbs, who will likely have a 20 lb-30 lb weight advantage. Villanueva has won 4 in a row and is getting a chance because the heavyweight division is so thin. Sherman I think has a future in the UFC despite the bad record. Reminds me of Walt Harris when he first came to the UFC. Sherman and Augusto Sakai were going toe to toe in a very close fight until Sakai knocked him out. In this fight, I see Sherman getting better. He’ll be way bigger. More power. The fight will be fun while it lasts. Sherman by 1st round knockout.