
Tony Ferguson vs Justin Gaethje
—Tony Ferguson
Ferguson is 36 years old. 18-1 UFC record. Crazy. Ferguson has submitted Edson Barboza and Kevin Lee. Knocked out Donald Cerrone and Anthony Pettis. And beat Rafael dos Anjos. Ferguson has near plus plus striking. He also has plus grappling and near plus wrestling. Gaethje is 31 years of age. 4-2 UFC record. Only 2 losses were to Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier. Knocked out Edson Barboza and Donald Cerrone. Gaethje has near plus plus striking and above average wrestling. This fight is all about answering one question: can Gaethje knock Ferguson out in the first 7 or 8 minutes. That’s his shot to win. And it’s a very legitimate shot. He could do it. Ferguson can be hit. He leaves his chin up. Pettis knocked Ferguson down. Even Lando Vannata knocked Ferguson down. But. Ferguson has never been knocked out in his career. So that’s the big question. Can Ferguson survive the first couple rounds of the fight? I think he will. Ferguson is super unorthodox. He might even try and take Gaethje down. But either way, Ferguson has had the full training camp. Gaethje has had a month to train for this. Ferguson will be very patient until about the 3rd round where he’ll really turn up the heat. I’m picking Ferguson to knock out Gaethje in the 4th round.
Henry Cejudo vs Dominick Cruz
—Dominick Cruz
Cejudo is 33 years old. 9-2 UFC record. Knocked out Marlon Moraes, TJ Dillashaw, and Wilson Reis. Beat Demetrius Johnson and Jussier Formiga by split decision. Beat Sergio Pettis by unanimous decision. Cejudo has plus striking and plus wrestling. Dominick Cruz is 34 years old. 5-1 UFC record. Beat Urijah Faber twice. Beat Dillashaw by split decision. Beat Johnson at 135 lbs. Cruz has near plus plus striking paired with above average power. He also has near plus wrestling. Full disclosure, I was originally picking Cejudo to win this fight. But after watching some of Cejudo’s fights and Cruz’s fights again, I’ve changed my mind. For a bunch of reasons. Cejudo got knocked out by Johnson. Then lost a close split decision to Joseph Benavidez. Cejudo couldn’t hold Benavidez down. Cejudo beat Sergio Pettis, but relied completely on his wrestling to win the fight. The second fight with Johnson, Cejudo again won because of his wrestling. But on the feet, Johnson was winning the striking exchanges. And yes, the Dillashaw knockout was impressive. But how healthy was Dillashaw to fight at 125 lbs? And I remember leaving the Moraes fight very impressed. But why did Cejudo win? Moraes out struck Cejudo and won the 1st round. The fight changed in the 2nd round as Moraes got tired. Cejudo started to win the striking. But the fight ended because Cejudo got Moraes on his back and pounded him out. So that leaves the question, how does Cejudo beat Cruz? Could Cejudo win with his wrestling? I don’t see it. I’m tempted to give Cejudo a higher grade on his wrestling than just plus. He is an Olympic gold medalist in wrestling. But MMA wrestling is different. And Cejudo couldn’t out wrestle Benavidez. He barely out wrestled Johnson. And he only got Moraes down when he was hurt and tired in the 3rd round. The performance shows a plus grade for me, which is pretty close to where Cruz’s wrestling is at. Plus Cruz is the king of awkward movement. Is Cejudo going to catch him to get him down? I doubt it. Could Cejudo out strike Cruz? I doubt it. Johnson out struck Cejudo. Moraes out struck Cejudo in the first round. And I rewatched Cruz vs Dillashaw. Cruz is very hard to hit and despite all the injuries, has a granite chin. He’s never been knocked out in his career. Dillashaw later said that he made a mistake trying to knock Cruz out, tiring himself in the first half of their fight. I also rewatched the Cruz vs Garbrandt fight. And that fight was a lot closer than I remember. It was a very even fight until Garbrandt accidently head butted Cruz in the 3rd round. Garbrandt won the fight, but it was close. Cruz will have a big reach advantage. And I have Cruz’s striking at a higher grade. Mainly because of the foot work. I was also concerned about Cruz coming off a 3 year layoff, but he’s done it before and succeeded. Cejudo himself is coming off a major shoulder surgery and hasn’t fought in a year. So I ask myself, how would Cejudo win this fight? And I got no answers. Then top that off with Cruz being a +200 underdog? I’m sold. I’m picking Cruz to stick and move for 5 rounds, frustrating Cejudo and winning by decision.
Francis Ngannou vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik
—Francis Ngannou
Ngannou is 33 years old. 9-2 UFC record. All 9 wins via stoppage. 8 of the 9 by knockout. He’s knocked out Curtis Bladyes (twice), Alistair Overeem, Cain Velasquez, and Junior dos Santos. I think Ngannou is pound for pound the best striker in the UFC right now and his striking is an easy plus plus. And based on improvement he showed in the 2nd Blaydes fight, Ngannou also has above average wrestling. Jairzinho Rozenstruik is 32 years old. 10-0 pro record. 4-0 in the UFC so far. The quick knockouts over Junior Albini and Allen Crowder were impressive, but both of those guys are average UFC heavyweights. Andrei Arlovski was supposed to give Rozenstruik a bigger test, yet Rozenstruik did the exact same thing, knocking Arlovski out in 29 seconds. On paper, Rozenstruik knocked out Overeem. But when you look closer, the knockout happened with 4 seconds left in the fight and had the fight gone to the judges, there’s a pretty good chance Overeem would’ve won. I now have Rozenstruik’s striking at a plus grade. Yes, Rozenstruik is the best new heavyweight the UFC has had in the past couple years. Yes, I see him getting a title shot at some point. Could he become champion one day? Maybe. And me mentioning that as a possibility is a compliment as the vast majority of fighters that make it to the UFC have no realistic chance of eventually becoming champion. Is Rozenstruik good enough right now to beat Ngannou? No way. Right now, it’s not close. Since Ngannou finished Blaydes for the 2nd time, he’s been firing on all cylinders. I still believe Ngannou is going to become heavyweight champion. My educated guess is that happens in 2021. Ngannou will have another spectacular 1st round knockout here.
Calvin Kattar vs Jeremy Stephens
—Calvin Kattar
Jeremy Stephens is 33 years old. 8-8 UFC record at 145 lbs. All 8 losses have been against top 10 fighters. Knocked out Doo Ho Choi and Josh Emmett. Beat Darren Elkins. Stephens has above average striking paired with plus power. And his wrestling is a little above average. Kattar is 32 years old. 4-2 in the UFC. He’s knocked out Shane Burgos, Chris Fishgold, and Ricardo Lamas. He also beat Andre Fili. Kattar has really improved his striking technique his last couple fights. I have his striking at plus. He also has near plus wrestling. This fight could play out pretty similar to Stephens’ fight with Rodriguez. Stephens has a chance to win with his knockout power, but that’s about it. Kattar’s striking is better. Kattar has more speed and cardio. Stephens is really durable. Besides getting knocked out by Jose Aldo by a body shot a couple years ago, the last time Stephens was knocked out was 2012. Very durable. I think Kattar knows that and will have a smart game plan. Kattar is going to win by decision.
Greg Hardy vs Yorgan de Castro
—Greg Hardy
Hardy is 31 years old. 4-2 in the UFC. DQ loss to Allen Crowder. Lost a close fight to Alexander Volkov. Knocked out Juan Adams. Hardy has plus striking and average wrestling. Yorgan de Castro is 33 years old. 6-0 pro record. 2-0 in the UFC. Knocked out Justin Tafa in his last fight. De Castro has above average striking and wrestling that’s a little above average. But. The striking could be better. Hard to say given the lack of competition de Castro has gone against. But we do know where Hardy is at. He fought very competitively against a title contender in Volkov. And that was with a busted right hand in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. That experience is going to be key in Hardy winning this fight, knowing he can hang with the top 5 in the division. De Castro looks like a promising prospect, but it’s not his time yet. Hardy by 1st round knockout.
Donald Cerrone vs Anthony Pettis
—Anthony Pettis
Cerrone is 37 years old. 23-11 UFC record. He’s only lost to top 10 ranked guys. Submitted Edson Barboza. Knocked out Alexander Hernandez. Beat Al Iaquinta, Eddie Alvarez, and Ben Henderson. Cerrone has near plus striking and above average grappling. Pettis is 33 years old. 9-9 UFC record. Lost to Clay Guida. Knocked out Donald Cerrone and Stephen Thompson. Submitted Ben Henderson, Gilbert Melendez, Charles Oliveira, and Michael Chiesa. Pettis has plus striking and above average grappling. You know me. In rematches, I almost always pick the fighter who won the first time around. That would be Pettis. Cerrone has lost 3 in a row. Granted he lost to 3 of the top 5 guys at 155 lbs in the world. But the way he easily lost them makes me think his striking tool is starting to slip a little bit. Probably getting harder for him to make weight at 155 lbs. Pettis has been very inconsistent over his career. Lately, he’s been on one of his better stretches since the Chiesa win. Lost the last 2 fights from being taken down. But that won’t happen here. Cerrone will be willing to stand and trade. And I’m picking Pettis by 2nd round knockout.
Fabricio Werdum vs Aleksei Oleinik
—Fabricio Werdum
Aleksei Oleinik is 42 years old. 7-4 in the UFC. Knocked out by Walt Harris. Lost to Daniel Omielanczuk. All 7 of Oleinik’s UFC wins have been finishes. Knocked out Jared Rosholt. Submitted Maurice Greene, Travis Browne, and Mark Hunt. Oleinik has easy plus grappling. He also has average striking paired with above average power. Werdum is also 42 years old. 11-5 UFC record. Knocked out by Alexander Volkov. Submitted Fedor Emelianenko, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Knocked out Mark Hunt, Cain Velasquez, and Walt Harris. Beat Travis Browne. Werdum has plus striking and plus grappling. But, I have to offer the caveat that Werdum hasn’t fought in close to 3 years and he’s 42 years old now. So it’s possible his tools have regressed. I’ve been saying for years how Oleinik is one of the most under rated fighters in the UFC. The fact that Greene was the betting favorite over Oleinik was just insane. But I can’t pick him against Werdum. Oleinik has shown he has limits in being able to take his opponents down. It was especially on display when Oleinik fought Alistair Overeem. Couldn’t get the take down and then Overeem knocked him out. And that’s exactly what’s going to happen here. Werdum by 1st round knockout.
Michelle Waterson vs Carla Esparza
—Carla Esparza
Waterson is 34 years old. 5-3 UFC record. Lost to Tecia Torres. Submitted Paige VanZant. Beat Felice Herrig and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Waterson has plus grappling. She also has above average striking paired with below average power. Esparza is 32 years old. 6-4 UFC record. Lost to Randa Markos by split decision. Submitted Rose Namajunas back in 2014. Submitted Angela Hill. Beat Cynthia Calvillo. Beat Tecia Torres by majority decision. Beat Alexa Grasso by majority decision (I thought Grasso won that fight). Esparza has plus wrestling and average grappling. She also has above average striking paired with below average power. Razor close fight. Both are pretty equal on the feet. The one main difference is that Esparza is more the wrestler and Waterson more the grappler. I think Esparza will have more success being able to take Waterson down and staying on top. Esparza should probably have success in the clinch against the cage. Close fight, but I’m picking Esparza to win by split decision.
Jacare Souza vs Uriah Hall
—Jacare Souza
Jacare is 39 years old. 9-4 UFC record at 185 lbs. He’s only lost to the top 5 in the division. Yoel Romero. Robert Whittaker, Kelvin Gastelum (I thought Jacare beat Gastelum), and Jack Hermansson. 3 of the 4 losses were decisions. He was only knocked out by Robert Whittaker. 8 of Jacare’s 9 wins are finishes. 3 of his last 4 wins came by knockout. Jacare has plus wrestling and plus grappling. He also has near plus striking. Uriah Hall is 35 years old. 8-7 UFC record. Lost to John Howard and Rafael Natal. Knocked out Gegard Mousasi and Krzysztof Jotko. Beat Antonio Carlos Jr. by split decision. Hall has plus striking and wrestling that’s a little above average. I thought that Carlos Jr beat Hall in his last fight, due to the Carlos Jr’s grappling. Well, Jacare’s grappling is on a whole other level. I see Jacare blitzing Hall with a take down and getting a pretty quick submission in the 1st round.
Vicente Luque vs Niko Price
—Vicente Luque
Luque is 28 years old. 10-3 in the UFC. He got out wrestled by Michael Graves in his UFC debut. Knocked out Belal Muhammad, Chad Laprise, and Bryan Barbarena. Submitted Niko Price. Luque has plus striking and above average grappling. Price is 30 years old. 6-3 UFC record. Knocked out Alan Jouban, Randy Brown, and Tim Means. Price has above average striking paired with plus power. He also has average grappling. This fight is a rematch and, you know me, I almost always pick the guy that won the first fight. Price has gotten better. But he’s still very aggressive, bordering on reckless. And I feel that his power is still ahead of his technique. This fight will be a barn burner while it lasts. Luque by 1st round knockout.
Bryce Mitchell vs Charles Rosa
—Bryce Mitchell
Charles Rosa is 33 years old. 3-3 UFC record. Hasn’t been active. 2 fights in the last 4 years. Lost a split decision to Yair Rodriguez in 2015. Submitted Manny Bermudez. Beat Kyle Bochniak. Rosa has near plus grappling and above average wrestling. Mitchell is 25 years old. 12-0 pro record, except he did lose to Brad Katona on TUF, technically an exhibition bout. 4-1 in the UFC counting the TUF fights. Submitted Matt Sayles. Beat Bobby Moffett. I grade Mitchell as having plus grappling. This fight is so evenly matched with two guys that are extremely similar, tool wise. Mitchell is probably a little better in the grappling. Rosa is probably a little better with the take downs. This is a projection pick for me. I think the fight is decided on the feet. Mitchell has shown some improvement in his stand up in the past year. He dropped Moffett in their fight. I’m projecting Mitchell’s striking to maybe reach an average grade and that would be enough to out point Rosa. Mitchell by decision.
Ryan Spann vs Sam Alvey
—Ryan Spann
Sam Alvey is 33 years old. 2-3 UFC record at 205 lbs. Got knocked out by Lil’ Nog. Knocked out Marcin Prachnio. Alvey has average striking paired with above average power. And his wrestling is above average. Spann is 28 years old. 4-1 UFC record. Got knocked out by Karl Roberson. Knocked out Lil’ Nog. Submitted Devin Clark. Spann’s striking has improved tons since moving up to 205 lbs and moving his camp to Fortis. Spann has plus striking and above average grappling. MMA math says Spann is going to win this fight because Spann knocked out Lil’ Nog and Lil’ Nog knocked out Alvey. But I’m picking Spann based off the tools and the monster advantage he’ll have in the striking exchanges. And Alvey has been knocked out in 2 of his last 3 fights. I think we see more of the same here. Spann by 2nd round knockout.