Lee vs Oliveira, Maia vs Burns, Moicano vs Hadzovic Fight Picks

Kevin Lee vs Charles Oliveira
—Kevin Lee
Charles Oliveira is 30 years old. Which is crazy cause he has a 16-8 UFC record. 24 UFC fights. He’s won 6 in a row and all have been finishes, including a submission over Jim Miller and David Teymur. And a knockout over Nik Lentz. Oliveira has plus grappling. And his striking has really improved over the last year and now gets a near plus grade from me. Lee is 27 years old. 11-4 UFC record at 155 lbs. Knocked out Jake Matthews, Edson Barboza, and Gregor Gillespie. Submitted Magomed Mustafaev, Francisco Trinaldo, and Michael Chiesa. Lee has plus wrestling paired with plus submissions. He also has near plus striking. The only flaw in Lee’s game, and it’s a big flaw, is his lack of cardio. Since 2016, Lee has only lost to Tony Ferguson and Al Iaquinta at 155 lbs. He looked good in the first couple rounds, but then gassed out and lost both fights because of it. I don’t think his cardio will be tested though. He has two very legit paths to win here. I could see Lee take Oliveira down and stay on top using his wrestling. But Oliveira is less dangerous on the feet. Lee’s wrestling should keep it there. And I’m picking Lee to blitz Oliveira and knock him out in the 1st round.

Demian Maia vs Gilbert Burns
—Gilbert Burns
Grappler vs grappler. Demian Maia is 42 years old. 13-5 UFC record at 170 lbs. Has submitted Carlos Condit and Ben Askren. Beat Jon Fitch and Gunnar Nelson. Has a split decision win over Jorge Masvidal. Maia’s grappling remains at a high level and is still near plus plus. He also has average striking. Burns is 33 years old. 10-3 UFC record. Got out wrestled by Rashid Magomedov and Michel Prazares. Submitted Alex Oliveira and Mike Davis. Beat Alexey Kunchenko and Gunnar Nelson. Burns has plus grappling and above average striking. Very interesting fight as Burns has only had 2 fights at 170 lbs. He moved up. So Maia could be the bigger fighter here. But Burns is more in his prime that Maia and I think he’ll be able to stuff most of the take downs and be able to scramble up if he needs to. Burns has vastly improved striking and he’ll have such an advantage over Maia, I’m picking Burns by 2nd round knockout.

Renato Moicano vs Damir Hadzovic
—Renato Moicano
Soft landing spot for Moicano who’s suffered 2 knockout losses in a row. He moves up to 155 lbs. 30 years old. 5-3 UFC record. He knocked down and submitted Cub Swanson. And beat Calvin Kattar. Moicano was beating Brian Ortega going into the 3rd round before he was submitted. Moicano’s other two losses were against Jose Aldo and the Korean Zombie. Moicano has plus striking paired with average power. He also has above average grappling. Damir Hadzovic is 33 years old. 3-3 UFC record. He’s got losses to Christos Giagos and Alan Patrick. Knocked out Marco Polo Reyes and beat Nick Hein by split decision. Hadzovic has average striking and average wrestling. Moicano is better everywhere and he’ll have the biggest advantage on the feet. Moicano is going to cruise to a decision win.

Johnny Walker vs Nikita Krylov
—Johnny Walker
Nikita Krylov is 27 years old. 6-4 UFC record at 205 lbs. Was submitted by Misha Cirkunov. Knocked out Walt Harris at heavyweight. Also knocked out Ed Herman. Submitted Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Francimar Barroso, and Ovince St. Preux. Krylov has near plus striking and near plus grappling. Walker is also 27 years. 4-1 UFC record. Got knocked out by Corey Anderson in his last fight. Has knocked out Khalil Rountree, Justin Ledet, and Misha Cirkunov. Walker has easy plus striking and average wrestling. It’s possible that Krylov is going to be able to take Walker down. But I don’t think it’ll happen. Walker has already shown to have average wrestling and has been training at Tri-Star to improve there. I think he is able to keep the fight on the feet. Has the more explosive power. I see another 1st round knockout for Walker.

Francisco Trinaldo vs John Makdessi
—Francisco Trinaldo
John Makdessi is 34 years old. 10-6 UFC record. Was knocked out by Lando Vannata. Lost to Alan Patrick and lost by split decision to Yancy Medeiros. Makdessi has above average striking paired with average power. Trinaldo is 41 years old. 14-6 UFC record. Lost to James Vick. Knocked out Chad Laprise, Paul Felder, and Evan Dunham. Beat Norman Parke by split decision. Trinaldo has above average wrestling. Should be a typical Trinaldo fight. He goes to his tried and true wrestling. Takes Makdessi down. Does enough on the ground to win by decision.

Jussier Formiga vs Brandon Moreno
—Brandon Moreno
Very difficult and close fight to pick. Jussier Formiga is 34 years old. 9-5 UFC record. Got out wrestled by Ray Borg. Beat Zach Makovsky, Wilson Reis, Dustin Ortiz, Sergio Pettis, and Deveison Figueiredo. Formiga has plus wrestling and above average submissions. He also has average striking paired with below average power. Moreno is 26 years old. 4-2-1 UFC record. Lost to Sergio Pettis and Alexandre Pantoja. Fought Askar Askarov to a draw. Knocked Dustin Ortiz down and submitted him. Also submitted Louis Smolka. Beat Kai Kara-France by unanimous decision and Ryan Benoit by split decision. Based on the Kara-France win, I’ve upgraded Moreno’s striking to plus paired with average power. He also has above average grappling. On paper, and if neither fighter gets better from their last fight, Formiga should win this by being able to take Moreno down. But Moreno’s rapid development makes it hard to project how much he’ll be improved in this fight. Askarov has near plus wrestling, took Moreno down a couple times, sometimes Moreno was able to get up, sometimes he wasn’t. I think this fight could be a lot like that. But I think with Moreno being 26 years old, his take down defense should be a little better. His scrambles should be a little better. I’m picking Moreno because I think he’ll do a little better wrestling wise. And on the feet, it’s all Moreno there. Moreno by split decision.

Amanda Ribas vs Randa Markos
—Amanda Ribas
Randa Markos is 34 years old. 8-7-1 UFC record. Got submitted by Cortney Casey. Lost a split decision to Jessica Penne. Submitted Felice Herrig and Angela Hill. Beat Tecia Torres. Has a split decision win over Carla Esparza. Markos has above average wrestling paired with an average submission game. Ribas is 26 years old. 8-1 pro record. 2-0 in the UFC so far. Knocked out by Polyana Viana. Beat MacKenzie Dern and submitted Emily Whitmire. Ribas has plus grappling and above average striking. So, it’s possible Markos uses her wrestling to take down Ribas. But if Dern wasn’t able to take Ribas down, I don’t think Markos will be able to. Fight will play out on the feet. Markos’ striking hasn’t really evolved. Ribas will have a big advantage and she’ll win via decision.

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs Alexey Kunchenko
—Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
Alexey Kunchenko is 35 years old. 20-1 pro record. 2-1 in the UFC so far. Only career loss was his last fight out against Gilbert Burns. He’s knocked out a 9-2 striker, a 9-1 striker, a 6-2 grappler, a 9-2 grappler, a 14-1 striker, and another 14-1 striker. He also beat an 11-2 grappler, a 6-2 wrestler. It’s hard to grade Kunchenko. On the one hand, his resume before signing with the UFC is extremely impressive. On the other hand, he’s fought 3 times in the UFC and his striking has been good, but no knockouts against Thiago Alves or Yushin Okami. And at 35 years of age, it’s reasonable to wonder if his skills are regressing. For now, I’m grading Kunchenko with above average striking and average wrestling. Zaleski dos Santos is 33 years old. 7-2 UFC record. Lost a split decision to Nicolas Dalby and just got knocked out by Jingliang Li. He’s knocked out Omari Akhmedov and Sean Strickland. Has a split decision win over Lyman Good. Zaleski dos Santos has plus striking. He also has average wrestling. It’s tempting to pick Kunchenko here. Zaleski dos Santos is coming off a knockout. And Kunchenko lost to Burns, who’s known for his grappling. Didn’t lose to a striker. But I think when you’re fighting someone that has plus striking like Jingliang, you can get caught and lose the fight. This fight is a lock to be on the feet. I still like Zaleski dos Santos’ striking better. He’s not only beat more proven competition, but also knocked them out. I’m convinced he has more power and am picking Zaleski dos Santos by 2nd round knockout.

Rani Yahya vs Enrique Barzola
—Enrique Barzola
Rani Yahya has been fighting in Zuffa for 13 years now. 35 years old. 15-7 UFC/WEC record. Lost to Tom Niinimaki back in 2013 by split decision. Lost to Joe Soto. Submitted Russell Doane and Luke Sanders. Yahya has above average grappling. Barzola is 30 years old. 8-3 UFC record. Lost a split decision to Kyle Bochniak. Beat Gabriel Benitez and Brandon Davis. Beat Bobby Moffett by split decision. Barzola has above average wrestling. He also has average striking paired with below average power. Yahya is probably still under rated in the UFC, but I’ve also had to face the reality that the quality of competition he’s beat hasn’t been that strong. He’s been feasting on guys with no ground game. With Barzola, he’s facing a very good wrestler. He won’t be able to get the take downs. Barzola’s striking is better. He’s going to out point Yayha to win by decision.

Mayra Bueno Silva vs Maryna Moroz
—Mayra Bueno Silva
Mayra vs Maryna. Easy fight to pick. Silva is an elite prospect that has the upside of being a title contender. 28 years old. 2-0 in the UFC so far. 5-0 pro record. Knocked out a well rounded 5-0 fighter in her 1st pro fight. Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter by split decision in her 3rd pro fight. Submitted a 7-0 striker in her UFC debut and 4th pro fight. Submitted Gillian Robertson in her 5th pro fight. Silva has plus grappling and average striking. Maryna Moroz is 28 years old. 4-3 UFC record. Lost to Valerie Letoureau and Angela Hill. Submitted Joanne Calderwood. Beat Sabina Mazo. Moroz has grappling that’s a little above average. Silva can win this fight anywhere she wants. But in picking this fight, I think, if Silva can get the best of Robertson on the ground, surely, she’ll be just as dominant against Moroz. So I’ll go with Silva by 1st round submission.

Bruno Silva vs David Dvorak
—Bruno Silva
Silva is 29 years old. 10-4-2 pro record. 0-1 in the UFC so far. Lost to a lightweight making his pro debut. Got knocked out by a 3-1 fighter. Fought Casey Kenny and a 4-0 grappler to draws. Has knocked out a 4-0 grappler. Silva has average wrestling and striking that’s close to average. David Dvorak is 27 years old. 17-3 pro record. Was beat by a 6-4 grappler. Knocked out a 4-0 grappler. Submitted a 16-2 striker. Dvorak has average striking and average grappling. The equalizer in this fight is going to be Silva’s wrestling. On the feet, it’ll be close, but Silva should be able to take Dvorak down, control him, and avoid submissions. I like Silva by decision.

Bea Malecki vs Veronica Macedo
—Bea Malecki
Really difficult fight to pick. Malecki is 28 years old. 3-0 pro record. Submitted a 3-0 fighter in her last fight. The sample size is really small here, but to my eyes, Malecki has average striking and average grappling. Veronica Macedo is 24 years old. 1-3 UFC record. Moving up to 135 lbs. Got submitted by Gillian Robertson and beat by Andrea Lee. No shame there. When she was still 20 years old, Macedo got knocked out by Ashlee Evans-Smith and fought a 4-4-1 fighter to a draw. She broke out in her last fight submitting Polyana Viana. Macedo has average grappling. The reason this fight is so hard to pick is Malecki has such a small resume and it’s possible Macedo took a big step in her development last time out. Then again, Viana has gone 1-3 in the UFC, so how strong was that win really? And Malecki should be the bigger fighter here so I doubt Macedo gets the fight on the ground where she’s strongest. Fight will stay on the feet and I like Malecki’s striking more. Malecki by decision.

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