Buys vs Silva, Maximov vs Cota, Macias vs de Paula Fight Picks

JP Buys vs Jacob Silva

• JP Buys
• Age: 24
• Pro Record: 8-2
• Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 wrestler.
• Tools: Buys has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).

• Jacob Silva
• Age: 32
• Pro Record: 6-3
• UFC Record: 0-1
• Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 grappler. 
• Tools: Silva has above average striking (60) and fringe average wrestling (45).

I expect both these fighters to be in the UFC someday. The issue for Silva though is that he’s going to have no answer for Buys’ take downs. Buys has a really high upside.

Chris’ Pick: Buys by 2nd round knockout.

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Nick Maximov vs Oscar Cota

• Nick Maximov
• Age: 22
• Pro Record: 5-0
• Tools: Maximov has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).

• Oscar Cota
• Age: 36
• Pro Record: 11-2
• Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 11-12 fighter.
• Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
• Tools: Cota has fringe average striking (45) and fringe average wrestling (45).

This is the most interesting fight on the card. On paper, this looks like an easy Maximov win. And I understand why some books now have Maximov as high as a huge 5 to 1 favorite. Maximov has at least 55 grappling. Takes the one dimensional striker down. Easy. But this fight is not that simple. Maximov is a smaller light heavyweight. Cota is a really big heavyweight. Maximov weighed in at 209 lbs. Cota weighed in at 265 lbs. That’s a crazy 56 lb weight difference. And we all know that when it comes to fighters moving up in weight, going from light heavyweight to heavyweight is the toughest to do. For example, watching Ovince St Preux move up to heavyweight to fight Ben Rothwell, OSP has way more skill. But Rothwell used his pure size to win, pushing OSP against the fence, putting his weight on him. Cota could easily do the same here and is a live +350 dog. But I’m reluctantly picking Maximov because he’s still most likely to win the fight. The gap in grappling skill between the two I think is bigger than the gap in weight.

Chris’ Pick: Maximov by 1st round submission.

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Pauline Macias vs Gloria de Paula

• Pauline Macias
• Age: 32
• Pro Record: 4-0
• Tools: Macias has average striking (50) and fringe average wrestling (45).

• Gloria de Paula
• Age: 25
• Pro Record: 4-2
• Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
• Tools: de Paula has striking that’s a little above (55). She also has average grappling (50).

Macias might have the better record, but that’s because de Paula has fought much better competition. De Paula has the better striking.

Chris’ Pick: de Paula by decision.

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Tucker Lutz vs Sherrard Blackledge

• Tucker Lutz
• Age: 26
• Pro Record: 10-1
• UFC Record: 1-0
• Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
• Tools: Lutz has average striking (50) and average wrestling (50).

• Sherrard Blackledge
• Age: 27
• Pro Record: 5-0
• UFC Record: 1-0
• Key Wins: Beat a 4-0 striker.
• Tools: Blackledge has average striking (50) and above average wrestling (60).

I really like Cameron Church as a prospect. I thought he’d beat Blackledge with his cardio and pace. Church also has 50-55ish wrestling. But to my surprise, Blackledge had superior wrestling that carried him to the win. I’ve seen Lutz fight. There’s no way his wrestling is better than Church’s. Therefore, I expect Blackledge to win the same way against Lutz.

Chris’ Pick: Blackledge by decision.

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Chelsea Hackett vs Victoria Leonardo

• Chelsea Hackett
• Age: 21
• Pro Record: 3-0
• Tools: Hackett has striking that’s a little above average (55). She also has average wrestling (50).

• Victoria Leonardo
• Age: 30
• Pro Record: 7-2
• Key Wins: Beat a 4-0 wrestler.
• Tools: Leonardo has fringe average striking paired with below average power (45-35). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).

Looking at Leonardo’s resume, it’s nothing special. Ho hum. But then I watched her fight with Erin Blachfield. Leonardo got knocked out. Which is bad for her. But I know Blachfield has wrestling. Because she beat the UFC’s Kay Hansen by majority decision. And she lost to the UFC’s Tracy Cortez by split decision. And before Leonardo got knocked out, I saw Blachfield try to take Leonardo down multiple times and couldn’t. So that’s something. Hackett’s striking has a very, very high ceiling. It’s noticeable. As long as Hackett is able to get back up if taken down, her striking should carry her here.

Chris’ Pick: Hackett by decision.