Derek Brunson vs Kevin Holland
- Derek Brunson
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 12-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Edmen Shahbazyan and Uriah Hall. Beat Ian Heinisch and Elias Theodorou.
- Tools: Brunson has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Kevin Holland
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 9-1 at 185 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jacare Souza, Joaquin Buckley and Anthony Hernandez. Beat Alessio Di Chirico. Split decisions over Gerald Meerschaert and Darren Stewart.
- Tools: Holland has plus striking (70) and near plus grappling (65).
It’s been pretty cool to see Holland develop the past couple years. He came into the UFC as a slick striker that had some grappling. Was sound defensively. Won on points. But the past few fights, he’s unlocked some serious knockout power. And with Brunson, yeah, he did upset Shahbazyan. But that had more to do with Shahbazyan gassing out halfway through the fight. I could be wrong, but I’m not a believer that Brunson has had this great change and his tools have reached another level. Holland is way more polished than Shahbazyan. Way better cardio. Brunson has 5 UFC losses. 4 of the 5 came from being knocked out. Brunson has also been knocked out in 2 of his last 5 fights. I don’t see how Brunson wins this fight.
Chris’ Pick: Holland by 2nd round knockout.
Brad Riddell vs Gregor Gillespie
- Brad Riddell
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kenan Song. Beat Alex da Silva, a 12-2 striker. Split decision over Magomed Mustafaev.
- Tools: Riddell has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Gregor Gillespie
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 13-1
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Yancy Medeiros. Submitted Vinc Pichel.
- Tools: Gillespie has above average striking (60) and near plus wrestling (65).
I expect this fight to be very similar to Riddell’s last fight with da Silva. Da Silva also has 65 wrestling. But Riddell was able to get up when taken down. And handily win the striking exchanges. I do think Gillespie’s striking is better than da Silva, so it should be closer. But I see Riddell eking out the win.
Chris’ Pick: Riddell by decision.
Montserrat Ruiz vs Cheyanne Buys
- Montserrat Ruiz
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 9-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 10-3 striker. Beat a 7-2 grappler.
- Tools: Conejo has average striking (50) and fringe average grappling (45).
- Cheyanne Buys
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 4-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Split decision win over a 3-0 striker.
- Tools: Buys has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Going into Buys last fight with Hilarie Rose, I was underestimating Buys’ wrestling. I thought it was a 50. It’s more like a 55. And with her wrestling being that sharp, there’s a path to victory for her over Ruiz. Take downs. But I think Buys will mix and match because her striking should be better too.
Chris’ Pick: Buys by decision.
Adrian Yanez vs Gustavo Lopez
- Adrian Yanez
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 12-3
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Domingo Pilarte in 2017 and Miles John in 2018.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-2 striker and a well rounded 11-1 fighter. Submitted a 5-2 grappler.
- Tools: Yanez has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
- Gustavo Lopez
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 12-4
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-2 grappler and a well rounded 11-3 fighter. Submitted a 14-2 striker.
- Tools: Lopez has average striking (50). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
Closer fight than the experts think. Right now, Yanez is hovering around -200, probably because he’s coming off The Contender and a knockout win in his last fight. But don’t sleep on Lopez who has legit 60 wrestling. He could absolutely take Yanez down a few times and make this fight pretty competition. But I’m picking Yanez because the price isn’t too crazy and his striking should be better.
Chris’ Pick: Yanez by 1st round knockout.
Max Griffin vs Kenan Song
- Max Griffin
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 4-7
- Key Losses: Lost to Curtis Millender. Lost split decisions to Alex Oliveira and Thiago Alves.
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-2 grappler. Beat Mike Perry.
- Tools: Griffin has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Kenan Song
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Losses: Lost to Alex Morono.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Tools: Kenan has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average grappling (50).
If Griffin tries to wrestle Kenan the whole fight, he could win, but I don’t think he’ll do that. His job is to put on exciting fights. That said, the striking is close to equal, but Kenan will have a big power advantage. Griffin’s very durable. He’s only been knocked out once in 7 UFC losses. But Kenan doing more damage will be the difference.
Chris’ Pick: Kenan by split decision.
Tai Tuivasa vs Harry Hunsucker
- Tai Tuivasa
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Losses: Submitted by Serghei Spivac.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cyril Asker. Beat Andrei Arlovski.
- Tools: Tuivasa has near plus striking (65) and average wrestling (50).
- Harry Hunsucker
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 7-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Tools: Hunsucker has average striking (50) and fringe average grappling (45).
This is a great spot for Tuivasa as the UFC is trying to build him back up. Hunsucker will pose zero threat on the ground. Gonna be a slug fest. Should end fast.
Chris’ Pick: Tuivasa by 1st round knockout.
Marion Reneau vs Macy Chiasson
- Marion Reneau
- Age: 43
- UFC Record: 5-5-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Ashlee Evans-Smith.
- Key Wins: Knocked down and submitted Sara McMann.
- Tools: Reneau has striking that’s a little above average (55). She also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
- Macy Chiasson
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Pannie Kianzad. Knocked out Sarah Moras and Gina Mazany.
- Tools: Chiasson has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
To the surprise of many, Lina Lansberg pulled off the upset over Chiasson, who looks like a potential title contender. Lansberg was able to take Chiasson down again and again. After that, Chiasson fought Shanna Young and her wrestling looked a little better. But Reneau is a big test. And I think Reneau’s wrestling is better than Lansberg’s. I’ll be transparent in saying that Reneau is definitely a live dog at +175. But ultimately, I think Chiasson will be improved enough to at least get back up when she’s taken down. And in the striking exchanges, Chiasson will blow her out of the water.
Chris’ Pick: Chiasson by 2nd round knockout.
Grant Dawson vs Leonardo Santos
- Grant Dawson
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 16-1
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Michael Trizano. Beat Nad Narimani.
- Tools: Dawson has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has plus wrestling (70) and plus grappling (70).
- Leonardo Santos
- Age: 41
- UFC Record: 7-0-1
- Key Draws: Fought Norman Parke to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kevin Lee and Stevie Ray. Submitted Anthony Rocco Martin.
- Tools: Santos has near plus striking (65) and above average grappling (60).
Santos is one of the more unique fighters in the UFC. 7-0-1 UFC record. But the promotion isn’t pushing him because he’s 41 years old. And now they’re sending in one of the elite prospects in the division in Dawson. This fight should be similar to Dawson’s last win over Nad Narimani. Lots of take downs.
Chris’ Pick: Dawson by decision.
Roman Dolidze vs Trevin Giles
- Roman Dolidze
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-3 fighter, a well rounded 15-4 fighter, and a 13-3 wrestler. Split decision over John Allan.
- Tools: Dolidze has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average grappling (60).
- Trevin Giles
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bevon Lewis, an 8-1 grappler, and a 9-2 grappler. Submitted a 9-2 striker. Split decision over Ryan Spann.
- Tools: Giles has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
If you didn’t know what you were looking at watched Giles vs Bevon Lewis, you might think, wow, Giles looks great. But Lewis has been lost ever since he got knocked out by Uriah Hall. Lewis made his UFC debut against Hall, was winning the fight, but got knocked out in the 3rd round. He hasn’t been the same since. So it’s hard to grade where Giles’ tools are at. Because Giles himself has been pretty inconsistent. Dolidze is a much more known commodity despite him only having 2 UFC fights. He can strike, but he loves the grappling. Because the striking could be close to equal, I could see Dolidze getting some take downs and trying to grapple with Giles all fight. Risky fight to bet on though considering how I never know which Giles is going to show up on fight night.
Chris’ Pick: Dolidze by decision.
Montel Jackson vs Jesse Strader
- Montel Jackson
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Brian Kelleher. Beat Felipe Corales.
- Tools: Jackson has near plus striking (65). He also has above average wrestling (60).
- Jesse Strader
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 striker.
- Tools: Strader has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Strader is an interesting prospect. He’s got 55 striking, 55 wrestling, as of now. He’s 29 years old, so he’s not super young. But he only has 6 pro fights, which means he has a ways to go developmentally. So we’ll see what he’s able to do. But Jackson is going to be too much for him. His striking will be way too advanced and Jackson has a big power advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Jackson by 2nd round knockout.
Bruno Silva vs JP Buys
- Bruno Silva
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 10-5-2
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Draws: Fought Casey Kenney and a 4-0 grappler to draws.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 grappler.
- Tools: Silva has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
- JP Buys
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Buys has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Silva is under rated. Yes, he’s 0-2 in the UFC so far, but he lost to 2 standouts in David Dvorak and Tagir Ulanbekov. And Silva didn’t get blown out. Buys win on The Contender has an asterisk. He techinically submitted Jaccob Silva, but the ref made a mistake in thinking he was out when he wasn’t. Buys is well rounded. Very fast. Silva should have the best tool in this fight, his wrestling. He also will have a big experience advantage in that he’s fought high level guys.
Chris’ Pick: Silva by decision.
Julia Avila vs Julija Stoliarenko
- Julia Avila
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Beat Pannie Kianzad, Nicco Montano, and Marion Reneau.
- Tools: Avila has plus striking (70) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Julija Stoliarenko
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 9-4-2
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Split decision over a 5-0 wrestler.
- Tools: Stoliarenko has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). She also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
I’m still confident Avila becomes a title contender. She already has some high level wins on her resume. She just needs to work on her wrestling more. And Stoliarenko provides a good test. I had her grappling as a 60 going into the Yana Kunitskaya fight. But Kunitskaya’s dominated her in the clinch most of the fight, got a few take downs. Controlled Stoliarenko the vast majority of the fight. So I have to downgrade it to a 55. Based on that, I think Avila will be able to stuff the take downs.
Chris’ Pick: Avila by 1st round knockout.