Cody Garbrandt vs Rob Font
- Cody Garbrandt
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Pedro Munhoz.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Raphael Assuncao and Thomas Almeida. Beat Dominick Cruz.
- Tools: Garbrandt has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Rob Font
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 8-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Douglas Silva de Andrade. Knocked out Marlon Moraes and Thomas Almeida. Beat Ricky Simon and Sergio Pettis.
- Tools: Font has plus striking (70). He also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Really unpredictable fight here. For me, it comes down to Garbrandt’s chin. How much damage can he take? Before the Assuncao win, he had been knocked out 3 times in a row. For Font, I’m not 100% sure I can grade his striking a 70. He knocked out Moraes, who has 70 striking. But they didn’t exchange for long. Most of that fight was on the ground. It was probably a minute’s worth of striking and I had Font’s striking graded as a 65 before the fight. I think it’s a 70, but I’m not sure. Garbrandt. He had 80 plus plus striking at his peak, when he beat Dominick Cruz. But he’s yet to replicate that performance. He hasn’t been the same since TJ Dillashaw knocked him out the first time. And in thet bounce back Assuncao fight, the knockout was nice, but Assuncao was doing okay in the stand up, up until the KO. The striking was close to equal. I have to grade Garbrandt’s striking a 70 for now, with the ceiling for more. There’s just a ton of unknowns coming into this fight, but I’m going to pick Garbrandt because of the ceiling and because Font’s striking could really be just a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Garbrandt by 2nd round knockout.
Carla Esparza vs Xiaonan Yan
- Carla Esparza
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 8-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Randa Markos.
- Key Wins: Submitted Rose Namajunas back in 2014. Submitted Angela Hill. Beat Cynthia Calvillo. Beat Tecia Torres by majority decision. Beat Alexa Grasso by majority decision (I thought Grasso won that fight). Split decision over Marina Rodriguez.
- Tools: Esparza has above average striking paired with below average power (60-40). She also has plus wrestling (70) and average grappling (50).
- Xiaonan Yan
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Beat Claudia Gadelha, Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Angela Hill.
- Tools: Xiaonan has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). She also has above average wrestling (60).
This fight is pretty straight forward. Esparza needs to take Yan down to win. That’s it. And the oddsmakers made a mistake. Most of them open Yan at around -200 and Esparza around +150. Now it’s pretty close to a pick em as the money has been pouring in on the Esparza side. Yan fought Gadelha last time out. She had some success taking Yan down in that fight. Not the whole fight. But Esparza is a notch above Gadelha. With a possible title shot on the line, I think Esparza plays it safe to get the win.
Chris’ Pick: Esparza by decision.
Justin Tafa vs Justin Vanderaa
- Justin Tafa
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 4-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Carlos Felipe.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Juan Adams.
- Tools: Tafa has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Jared Vanderaa
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 11-5
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Lost to a 4-3 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-2 fighter and a 3-0 fighter.
- Tools: Vanderaa has fringe average striking (45). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
Vanderaa got signed to the UFC from The Contender because it looked like he had 55 wrestling. And because heavyweight is so thin. But then Vanderaa fought Serghei Spivac and got destroyed. Spivac even took Vanderaa down. This fight is a near lock. Vanderaa won’t be able to take Tafa down. And he’ll be in big trouble pretty quick on the feet. It’s crazy that Tafa is only -185. He should be way heavier, like around -700 or -800. But I think the narrative is Vanderaa is a wrestler and might be able to take Tafa down.
Chris’ Pick: Tafa by 1st round knockout.
Felicia Spencer vs Norma Dumont
- Felicia Spencer
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 13-3 combined pro and amateur record.
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Megan Anderson, Pam Sorenson, and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Macy Chiasson.
- Tools: Spencer has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little better than average (65-55). She also has plus grappling (70).
- Norma Dumont
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 5-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Beat Ashlee Evans-Smith.
- Tools: Dumont has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Spencer sure didn’t look that great after she fought Amanda Nunes. But no one really does. I do know that Cris Cyborg at 145 lbs was pretty good and Spencer held her own against Cyborg. I like Dumont’s potential. Especially if she can consistently make 135 lbs. But this fight is at 145 lbs. Dumont is taking the fight on short notice. Spencer is much bigger. And Spencer has the best tool in the fight, which is her grappling. I expect Spencer to bounce back and find the submission.
Chris’ Pick: Spencer by 2nd round submission.
David Dvorak vs Juancamilo Ronderos
- David Dvorak
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 19-3
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Losses: Beat by a 6-4 grappler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 grappler. Submitted a 16-2 striker. Beat Jordan Espiniosa and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
- Tools: Dvorak has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
- Juancamilo Ronderos
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-0 grappler. Split decision win over Eric Shelton.
- Tools: Ronderos has average striking paired with below average power (50-40) and grappling (50).
Raulian Paiva is out and Ronderos steps in on 24 hours notice. Ronderos is a decent prospect but I think he’s a little green. His last fight was a controversial split decision win over UFC veteran Eric Shelton. Shelton spent most of the fight taking Ronderos down. Then Ronderos would get back up. And Shelton would take him down again. So I don’t see any legitimate paths to victory here for him against Dvorak. Plus, anytime monster upsets happen, it’s by a quick knockout. These guys are flyweights, so that’s way less likely to happen.
Chris’ Pick: Dvorak by 2nd round TKO via ground and pound.
Jack Hermansson vs Edmen Shahbazyan
- Jack Hermansson
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 8-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Thales Leites. Submitted Kelvin Gastelum, David Branch, and Gerald Meerschaert. Beat Jacare Souza.
- Tools: Hermansson has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has plus wrestling (70) and plus grappling (70).
- Edmen Shahbazyan
- Age: 23
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brad Tavares and Charles Byrd.
- Tools: Shahbazyan plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
I’m changing my pick on this one because after rewatching the Shahbazyan vs Derek Brunson fight, Edmen’s wrestling wasn’t as bad as I remembered. Brunson took Shahbazyan down a few times, but Edmen would get right back up. Most of the fight was on the feet up until the end of the 2nd round when Shahbazyan started to gas. But that’s a cardio issue and an efficiency issue. Both can be fixed. And I know Hermansson has pound for pound some of the best ground and pound in the UFC, but I’m starting to wonder if his wrestling is more of a 65. I’m leaving it as a 70 for now, but it’s possible I’m grading it to high. Another issue with me picking Hermansson is he can be knocked out. 2 of his 4 UFC losses have come via KO. I think Shahbazyan, especially being only 23 years old, comes in with better cardio. Better wrestling. And on the feet, he’s going to have a big power advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Shahbazyan by 1st round knockout.
Bill Algeo vs Ricardo Ramos
- Bill Algeo
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 14-5
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 27-8 grappler. Beat Spike Carlyle, a 5-1 striker and a well rounded 11-4 fighter.
- Tools: Algeo has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
- Ricardo Ramos
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Luiz Garagorri. Beat Journey Newsom. Split decision win over Kyung Ho Kang.
- Tools: Ramos has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has near plus grappling (65).
This is a pretty simple fight to pick if Ramos can get Algeo down. I think he can. He’s proved that he has 65 grappling. Algeo has looked okay in the UFC so far, but I can’t shake that loss to Brendan Loughnane out of my mind. Ramos’ grappling should get it done and at +100, there’s a lot of value here.
Chris’ Pick: Ramos by 2nd round submission.
Ben Rothwell vs Chris Barnett
- Ben Rothwell
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 8-7
- Key Losses: Lost to Andrei Arlovski.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alistair Overeem in 2014.
- Tools: Rothwell has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
- Chris Barnett
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 21-6
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 3-3 striker. Lost to a 14-8 striker. Split decision loss to an 8-4 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 22-5 fighter.
- Tools: Barnett has average striking (50) and fringe average wrestling (45).
UFC needed a heavyweight on short notice and you know, it’s not exactly the deepest division prospect wise. Big mismatch. I don’t expect this one to last long. Barnett took on a 5-2 striker in his second to last fight and Barnett was taken down repeatedly. So what do you think Rothwell will be able to do here? The real question though, is how in the world is Rothwell only -360. He should be at least -600.
Chris’ Pick: Rothwell by 1st round knockout.
Claudio Silva vs Court McGee
- Claudio Silva
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Nordine Taleb and Danny Roberts. Split decision over Leon Edwards in 2014.
- Tools: Silva has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average grappling (60).
- Court McGee
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 8-9
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dhiego Lima. Lost to Ben Saunders.
- Tools: McGee has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Silva is interesting. Going into the Krause fight, I saw him as more of a submission specialist. But I saw his grappling regress and his striking really improve. At 37 years old. McGee showed in his last fight with Carlos Condit, that he still has 60 wrestling. I don’t think McGee can take Silva down, but even if he could, why would he want to mess with Silva’s grappling.
Chris’ Pick: Silva by decision.
Bruno Silva vs Victor Rodriguez
- Bruno Silva
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 11-5-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Draws: Fought Casey Kenney and a 4-0 grappler to draws.
- Key Wins: Knocked out JP Buys and a 4-0 grappler.
- Tools: Silva has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
- Victor Rodriguez
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 5-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-1 grappler.
- Tools: Rodriguez has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
So, when Rodriguez made his UFC debut against Adrian Yanez, to me, he did better than expected. Before he got knocked out. On the surface, not impressive. But Rodriguez took that fight on short notice. And he’s a flyweight that fought Yanez at bantamweight. Now he takes on Silva at his optimal weight of 125 lbs. I think Rodriguez is a pretty similar to Buys, who Silva fought last. Silva should win by taking Rodriguez down multiple times, but Rodriguez is a live dog at +275.
Chris’ Pick: Silva by decision.
Joshua Culibao vs Yilan Sha
- Josh Culibao
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 8-1-1
- UFC Record: 0-1-1
- Key Draws: Fought Charles Jourdain to a split draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-2 striker and beat a 5-0-1 striker by split decision.
- Tools: Culibao has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Yilan Sha
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 17-6
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 10-5 grappler. Lost to a 3-2 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 grappler. Submitted a 7-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Yilan has fringe average striking (45) and fringe average grappling (45).
I could be wrong about Yilan. There’s not much footage on him. But I think my grades are an accurate educated guess based on the poor competition he’s lost to recently. Culibao made his UFC debut on short notice. Fought above a weight class. Got knocked out by Jalin Turner. And he was a +375 dog going into his UFC featherweight debut against Jourdain. Obviously, he shouldn’t have been. Culibao out classed Jourdain the first 2 rounds. But then Jourdain dropped Culibao in the 3rd and dominated the last round. Turns out Culibao is one of Alexander Volkanovski’s main training partners. And it’s possible his striking could be a 70 grade, but I have it as a 65 for now to be safe. This fight is a lock. Right now Culibao hovers around -260. In my opinion, he should be priced around -600.
Chris’ Pick: Culibao by 1st round knockout.
Yancy Medeiros vs Damir Hadzovic
- Yancy Medeiros
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-7
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Oliveira. Split decision over John Makdessi.
- Tools: Medeiros has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Damir Hadzovic
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Key Losses: Lost to Christos Giagos and Alan Patrick.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marco Polo Reyes. Split decision over Nick Hein.
- Tools: Hadzovic has average striking (50) and average wrestling (50).
I haven’t seen any progression in Hadzovic. At the time, him knocking out Polo Reyes seemed impressive, but based on the last 4 fights, it’s possibly that KO was an outlier. He’s 34 years old. 7 UFC fights. It’s hard to imagine him having much projection left. I could say the same thing about Medeiros. I could even say that he’s regressed a bit. He’s lost 3 in a row, but they’ve all been to quality fighters. And I see Medeiros being slightly better everywhere.
Chris’ Pick: Medeiros by 2nd round knockout.
Damir Ismagulov vs Rafael Alves
- Damir Ismagulov
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 19-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Beat Thiago Moises and Joel Alvarez.
- Tools: Ismagulov has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
- Rafael Alves
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 19-9
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 2-3 striker, a well rounded 36-15 fighter, and a 4-1-1 grappler.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 5-1 grappler, a 9-2 striker, and a 14-2 grappler. Knocked out a well rounded 15-4 fighter. Beat a 16-5 grappler and a 17-2 wrestler.
- Tools: Alves has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Has it really been almost 2 years since Ismagulov fought last? Wow, time flies. I think Ismagulov has some value at -500. That’s where I got him. But he’s getting heavier, with one book pricing him at -650. That’s a bit high. Alves is better than his record looks. He’s very well rounded. And he starts fast. Likes to blitz his opponents and get them out quick. But Ismagulov is better everywhere. Can most likely take Alves down if he has to. Ismagulov should route Alves.
Chris’ Pick: Ismagulov by decision.