Jared Cannonier vs Kelvin Gastelum
- Jared Cannonier
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 3-1 at 185 lbs. 6-5 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jack Hermansson, Anderson Silva, and David Branch.
- Tools: Cannonier has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Kelvin Gastelum
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-5 at 185 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Darren Till.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Michael Bisping. Beat Ian Heinisch. Split decision win over Jacare Souza.
- Tools: Gastelum has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and above average grappling (60).
The fact that both of these guys are coming off fights against Robert Whittaker is helpful. Because you can see that both Cannonier and Gastelum did okay, but Whittaker’s striking is a notch above. But you can also see another clear difference and that’s the power that Cannonier posses. The fact that he hurt Whittaker in the 3rd round and almost knocked him out. Cannonier’s cardio held up and had that fight gone 5 rounds, Whittaker might have been in trouble. Gastelum doesn’t have that KO power. These guys are going to trade strikes and it’s going to be close. And I’m confident in saying that it’s only a question of “when”, not “if” Cannonier gets the knockout.
Chris’ Pick: Cannonier by 2nd round knockout.
Mark O. Madsen vs Clay Guida
- Mark O. Madsen
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 10-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 12-4 striker. Beat Austin Hubbard and a well rounded 12-4 fighter.
- Tools: Madsen has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
- Clay Guida
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 16-14
- Key Losses: Submitted by Jim Miller. Lost to Bobby Green.
- Key Wins: Beat Michael Johnson.
- Tools: Guida has average striking (50) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Guida is a pretty decent test for Madsen, to really prove if he truly has 65 wrestling. Because I’m still not sure whether Austin Hubbard has 55 wrestling or if it’s a 60. Guida is also going to test Madsen’s cardio. But I do think it’s pretty likly Madsen does have 65 wrestling, will probably develop into a 70, will take Guida down a bunch of times, and will eventually get the stoppage.
Chris’ Pick: Madsen by 2nd round ground and pound TKO.
Chase Sherman vs Parker Porter
- Chase Sherman
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-6
- Key Losses: Lost to Justin Ledet.
- Key Wins: Beat Damian Grabowski.
- Tools: Sherman has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Parker Porter
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 10-6
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 12-5 striker.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 7-1 striker. Beat Josh Parisian.
- Tools: Porter has average striking (50). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
Sherman was a bit of an unknown going into the Andrei Arlovski fight. He had a 3-5 UFC record. Sure, he looked good in his previous fight, but that was against Ike Villanueva, who fights at 205 lbs. But despite Sherman’s loss to Arlovski, he did prove that he has improved. The striking with Arlovski was close to equal and Arlovski only made one attempt at a clinch that was quickly shaken off. No take down attempts. That’s because Sherman has improved his wrestling too. Porter might have won his last fight with Parisian, but that’s mostly because Parisian did a poor job of managing his pace, as he started to gas out towards the end of the 1st round. At that point, Parisian was out striking Porter almost 2 to 1. But when you’re out of gas, that’s when upsets happen. In this fight, Sherman’s going to use his reach advantage and he’s got way better cardio than Parisian. I see Sherman having no problems here and I think he should be way heavier than -190.
Chris’ Pick: Sherman by 1st round knockout.
Vinc Pichel vs Austin Hubbard
- Vinc Pichel
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 9-3
- Key Wins: Beat Jim Miller, Roosevelt Roberts, and Joaquim Silva.
- Tools: Pichel has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average wrestling (60).
- Austin Hubbard
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Eric Wisely.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 grappler and a well rounded 11-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 9-1 fighter.
- Tools: Hubbard has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
Hubbard’s UFC career got off to a rocky start, but he’s been improving. And Pichel is one of those vets that every fight, you’re expecting some regression due to the fact that he’s 38 years old. But he only has 15 pro fights. Not as much mileage on his body. Based on the skills, Pichel should be a -300 favorite. But because Pichel is older and could regress at any point, there’s more risk picking him, so I think Pichel being priced at -115 is about right.
Chris’ Pick: Pichel by decision.
Brandon Royval vs Alexandre Pantoja
- Brandon Royval
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 12-5
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Kai Kara France, Tim Elliott, Joby Sanchez and a 5-1 striker. Knocked out a 7-1 grappler. Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
- Tools: Royval has plus striking (70) and plus grappling (70).
- Alexandre Pantoja
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Schnell and Wilson Reis. Submitted Yuta Sasaki. Beat Brandon Moreno and Manel Kape.
- Tools: Pantoja has near plus striking (65) and plus grappling (70).
I would have loved to see how the Royval vs Brandon Moreno would’ve played out had Royval not separated his shoulder. I still have confidence in Royval having 70 grappling because of what he was able to do to Kara France and Elliott. But his striking advantage will be the difference here with Pantoja.
Chris’ Pick: Royval by decision.
Saidyokub Kakharamonov vs Trevin Jones
- Saidyokub Kakharamonov
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 8-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Askar Askar. Beat a 5-2 grappler.
- Tools: Kakharamonov has average striking (50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
- Trevin Jones
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 13-6
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 5-3 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mario Bautista, a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Beat an 11-3 striker. Submitted a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Split decision over a 9-5 wrestler.
- Tools: Jones has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
Kakharamonov’s too losses actually don’t look that bad. One of them was to elite prospect Umar Nurmagomedov. The other was against a well rounded 4-1 fighter that Kakharamonov was beating pretty handily with his wrestling, until he ran out of gas at the end of the fight and got knocked out. But besides the challenges of taking a fight on less than a week’s notice, this is a horrible style matchup for Kakharamonov. Jones uses his wrestling to stuff take downs. He’s got better striking and will have much more gas in the tank, cardio wise.
Chris’ Pick: Jones by decision.
Luis Saldana vs Austin Lingo
- Luis Saldana
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 15-6
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 7-4 fighter. Lost to a 1-1 fighter and a 2-2 fighter.
- Key Wins: Beat Jordan Griffin.
- Tools: Saldana has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
- Austin Lingo
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker.
- Tools: Lingo has striking that’s a little above average (55) and fringe average wrestling (45).
Razor close fight. I think Saldana has the better grappling, but he usually prefers to keep the fight on the feet. I’ll admit that Saldana is a bit better than I originally thought but I’m picking Lingo because I think he has more power and will land the more impactful shots. But this fight is so close, it could go either way.
Chris’ Pick: Lingo by split decision.
Brian Kelleher vs Domingo Pilarte
- Brian Kelleher
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-5
- Key Losses: Knocked out Damian Stasiak.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hunter Azure. Submitted Iuri Alcantara. Beat Julio Arce twice. Once by submission, the other decision.
- Tools: Kelleher has above average striking (60) and above average grappling (60).
- Domingo Pilarte
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Felipe Colares.
- Key Submitted a 7-1 striker. Spliit decision over a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Tools: Pilarte has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
It’s possible Kelleher’s grappling is a 65 now. Even though he lost to Ricky Simon last time out, he was able to repeatedly get up when taken down. But I think Kelleher will prefer to keep it on the feet. I think Pilarte has 55 striking, but it’s a shaky grade that could be closer to a 50.
Chris’ Pick: Kelleher by 2nd round knockout.
Bea Malecki vs Josiane Nunes
- Bea Malecki
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 4-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-0 fighter.
- Tools: Malecki has average striking (50) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Josiane Nunes
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker, a 3-0 grappler, and a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Tools: Nunes de Lima has above average striking (60) and fringe average wrestling (45).
This is a pure striker vs grappler type fight. Another thing that’s interesting is the height difference. Nunes is 5’2 and Malecki is 5’11. Originally, I was picking Nunes, but I rewatched Malecki’s fight with grappler Veronica Macedo, and the way Malecki handled her, Malecki’s grappling is more of a 55. On the feet, Malecki would be in trouble, but with 55 grappling, I think she’ll be able to get Nunes down.
Chris’ Pick: Malecki by decision.
William Knight vs Fabio Cherant
- William Knight
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 2-0 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat Aleksa Camur.
- Tools: Knight has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Fabio Cherant
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Tools: Cherant has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has average grappling (50).
Even though Knight was continuancely taken down by Da Un Jung, I know he still has 55 wrestling. Which will be fine against Cherant to keep the fight on the feet if he wants or take him down a couple times. Cherant is still pretty green. Has above average athletic ability but it hasn’t translated to real skills in the cage yet. Knight is going to have a monster power advantage on the feet and that spells trouble in a big guy weight class like 205 lbs.
Chris’ Pick: Knight by 1st round knockout.
Roosevelt Roberts vs Ignacio Bahamondes
- Roosevelt Roberts
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by Jim Miller. Lost to Vinc Pichel.
- Key Wins: Submitted Brok Weaver. Beat Thomas Gifford.
- Tools: Roberts has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Ignacio Bahamondes
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 11-4
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to John Makdessi.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker. Beat a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Split decision over a well rounded 5-2 fighter.
- Tools: Bahamondes has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
I’m not sure what happened to Bahamondes in his last fight with John Makdessi. He was doing really well with the striking until Makdessi hurt him pretty bad. And then after that, Bahamondes wasn’t the same. Ultimately, I still think Bahamondes is a 60 striker. He should have more power. He’s bigger than Roberts. Will have a reach advantage. Striking will be close until Bahamondes gets the KO.
Chris’ Pick: Bahamondes by 2nd round knockout.
Sasha Palatnikov vs Ramiz Brahimaj
- Sasha Palatnikov
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 6-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Louis Cosce.
- Tools: Palatnikov has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Ramiz Brahimaj
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Lost to an 8-3 grappler and a 10-4 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 9-3 striker.
- Tools: Brahimaj has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
I have both of these guys graded exactly the same. Which means I have to pick based on projection. I thought Brahimaj was a grappling specialist, but I was wrong. I hung in there with Max Griffin most of the fight. But I give Palatnikov a slight edge because of his pace and cardio. I really think that’s going to be the key to him winning this fight.
Chris’ Pick: Palatnikov by decision.