Max Holloway vs Yair Rodriguez
- Max Holloway
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 18-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Alexander Volkanovski.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brian Ortega, Jose Aldo (twice), Anthony Pettis, and Charles Oliveira. Beat Frankie Edgar, Jeremy Stephens and Ricardo Lamas.
- Tools: Holloway has plus plus striking paired with plus power (80-70). He also has plus wrestling (70).
- Yair Rodriguez
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 10-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out The Korean Zombie and Andre Fili. Beat Jeremy Stephens. Split decision over Alex Caceres.
- Tools: Rodriguez has plus striking (70) and above average wrestling (60).
I don’t give out too many 80 grades. Ngannou has 80 striking. Khabib proved to have 80 wrestling. It’s top of the scale. And last fight against Kattar, Holloway proved to have 80 striking, albeit with 70 power. In 4 of the 5 rounds, Holloway out struck Kattar almost 3 to 1. And I know Kattar has 70 striking. Now, the interesting thing to me about this fight is not who to pick to win this fight. That’s obvious. Holloway is the pick. The interesting question though is should I bet Holloway as some books have him as an extremely chalky -600. Keep in mind, this could easily be a title fight. Most people thought Holloway won the 2nd Volkanovski fight. Rodriguez is deserving of a title shot. But I’m pretty sure Rodriguez’s striking is only a 70. He got a lucky KO on the Korean Zombie. Had 70 striking that fight. And in the 2nd Stephens fight, had 70 striking, almost finished Stephens, gassed out trying to do so. Couldn’t do much the rest of the fight. I wouldn’t say Rodriguez doesn’t have cardio. He did go 5 rounds with Korean Zombie. I think I am going to bet Holloway because of the margin. Even if Rodriguez improves his striking to a 75, it won’t be enough. And I’m confident Holloway will also have better cardio.
Chris’ Pick: Holloway by 4th round knockout.
Ben Rothwell vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima
- Ben Rothwell
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 9-7
- Key Losses: Lost to Andrei Arlovski.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alistair Overeem in 2014.
- Tools: Rothwell has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
- Marcos Rogerio de Lima
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 3-2 at heavyweight. 7-5 in the UFC overall.
- Key Losses: Submitted by Stefan Struve.
- Key Wins: Beat Maurice Greene and Adam Wieczorek.
- Rogerio de Lima has near plus striking (65) and near plus wrestling (65).
Fighters all the time prove that you can improve at any age and any point in your career. The latest example is Rogerio de Lima who’s had 12 fights in the UFC. He’s had KO power. But his wrestling has never been better than a 55. He took on Greene in his last fight. Greene had 60 grappling. And amazingly, Rogerio de Lima took Greene down over and over again and pummeled him on the ground for virtually the whole fight. Maybe Rogerio de Lima was motivated coming off a loss to Alexandr Romanov doing the same thing to him, taking him down. Because of this new found wrestling, I think Rogerio de Lima is pretty safe to beat Rothwell. The only danger is Rogerio de Lima going too hard for the finish early and gassing out. But hey, Rogerio de Lima can be had for +135. One of the best value’s on the card.
Chris’ Pick: Rogerio de Lima by 2nd round knockout.
Felicia Spencer vs Leah Letson
- Felicia Spencer
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Norma Dumont.
- Key Wins: Submitted Megan Anderson, Pam Sorenson, and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Macy Chiasson.
- Tools: Spencer has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little better than average (65-55). She also has plus grappling (70).
- Leah Letson
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 5-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Split decision over Julija Stoliarenko.
- Tools: Letson has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
On the one hand, I feel like this fight is tough to predict because Letson hasn’t fought in 3 years. Who knows how she looks. If she’s gotten better. On the other hand, we know how good Spencer is. How she’s been active. Fighting the very best in the division. In Letson’s last fight, she barely beat Stoliarenko. Meanwhile Spencer has submitted Anderson and barely lost to Dumont. The odds of Letson’s striking and wrestling improving to Spencer’s level is pretty low.
Chris’ Pick: Spencer by 1st round submission.
Yadong Song vs Julio Arce
- Yadong Song
- Age: 23
- UFC Record: 6-1-1
- Key Draws: Fought Cody Stamann to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Felipe Arantes and Alejandro Perez. Beat Marlon Vera. Split decision over Casey Kenney.
- Tools: Yadong has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Julio Arce
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sheymon Moraes.
- Key Wins: Beat Dan Ige.
- Tools: Arce has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
I wasn’t that excited about this fight until I discovered that Arce moved down to 135 lbs. I should’ve known that! He did fight bantamweight Andre Ewell last time out. In any case, both of Arce’s last 2 wins came via KO. I think he’s starting to unlock some power, especially moving down to the smaller weight class. Arce looked like he had 65 striking against Ewell, but maybe with a smoother weight cut, his striking is even better. And Yadong is also on the rise coming off a win over Kenney. I thought Kenney’s striking was a 70 going into that fight but maybe it’s closer to 65. Or maybe something crazier is going on. Could Yadong’s striking be elevating to a 75? It’s possible. Either way, Yadong should win. The fight is priced right with Yadong a -155 favorite, but I’m going to stay away because I don’t think we’ve really seen what Arce can do at 135 lbs yet.
Chris’ Pick: Yadong by 2nd round knockout.
Thiago Moises vs Joel Alvarez
- Thiago Moises
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jamall Emmers. Submitted Michael Johnson. Beat Alexander Hernandez and Bobby Green.
- Tools: Moises has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus grappling (65).
- Joel Alvarez
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 18-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key WIns: Submitted Alexander Yakovlev, Joseph Duffy, a 5-1 striker, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, a well rounded 14-2 fighter, and a 9-1 striker. Knocked out a 12-4 striker.
- Tools: Alvarez has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus grappling (65).
So it turns out Alvarez can strike. For the couple minutes his fight with Yakovlev was on the feet, Alvarez did out strike him. But is his striking on the level of Moises? I really doubt it. Yes, Alvarez is dangerous on the ground. Could he catch Moises in a submission? Yeah. Is it possible that Alvarez’s grappling is a 70? Yeah. But the most likely outcome is Moises being able to stay out of danger. Keeping most of the fight on the feet and winning the striking exchanges.
Chris’ Pick: Moises by decision.
Cynthia Calvillo vs Andrea Lee
- Cynthia Calvillo
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 1-2 at 125 lbs. 6-3-1 overall.
- Key Draws: Fought Marina Rodriguez to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Poliana Botelho. Knocked out Montana de la Rosa. Beat Jessica Eye, Cortney Casey, Joanne Calderwood, and Gillian Robertson. Beat Aspen Ladd in an amateur bout in 2014.Tools:
- Tools: Calvillo has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). She also has plus grappling (70).
- Andrea Lee
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Lauren Murphy and Joanne Calderwood.
- Key Wins: Submitted Antonina Shevchenko. Beat Montana de la Rosa and Ashlee Evans-Smith.
- Tools: Lee has near plus striking paired with fringe average power (65-45). She also has plus grappling (70).
Total coin flip fight, although I have Calvillo with slightly more power. I’m also picking Calvillo because I’m more confident in her grappling being a 70. The book makers have this fight as a pick em and I couldn’t agree more.
Chris’ Pick: Calvillo by split decision.
Miguel Baeza vs Khaos Williams
- Miguel Baeza
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key WIns: Knocked out Matt Brown. Submitted Takashi Sato. Beat a 10-3 striker.
- Tools: Baeza has near plus striking (65) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Khaos Williams
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 12-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Abdul Razak Alhassan and Alex Morono. Beat Matthew Semelsberger and a well rounded 9-3 fighter.
- Tools: Williams has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Not sure what happened with Baeza in his last fight with Santiago Ponzinibbio. Baeza won the 1st round. But then either he got hurt by Ponzinibbio’s power or started to get tired. Either way, Ponzinibbio took over in the 2nd and 3rd to win the fight. But, one thing I did see was Baeza having improved wrestling. Ponzinibbio, who has 65 wrestling, tried to take Baeza down and didn’t get close. Which makes this an easy fight to pick. Stand up fight could be close, but watch for Baeza to mix in some wrestling to help him get out of danger when he needs to. And the price is wonderful. Baeza at -145. He should be way heavier, around -325.
Chris’ Pick: Baeza by decision.
Sean Woodson vs Collin Anglin
- Sean Woodson
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by Julian Erosa.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 grappler. Beat Kyle Bochniak. Split decision over Youssef Zalal.
- Tools: Woodson has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has average wrestling (50).
- Collin Anglin
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Beat a 5-0 striker.
- Tools: Anglin has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Anglin is pretty similar to Woodson’s last opponent in Zalal. Except Anglin is more of a grappler and has a bit more power. But after watching Woodson’s last fight, I’m going to give in and upgrade his striking to a 60. I think it’s obvious this fight could be similar to Woodson vs Zalal. Anglin will want to take Woodson down. Decent chance Woodson comes in with improved wrestling. I think Woodson will land enough strikes to edge out a win.
Chris’ Pick: Woodson by split decision.
Cortney Casey vs Liana Jojua
- Cortney Casey
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 5-6
- Key Losses: Lost to Seo Hee Ham. Lost split decisions to JJ Aldrich, Felice Herrig, and Michelle Waterson.
- Key Wins: Submitted Mara Romero Borella and Randa Markos. Beat Angela Hill by split decision.
- Tools: Casey has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Liana Jojua
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 8-4
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 13-5 fighter. Majority decision win over a 4-0 grappler.
- Tools: Jojua has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Despite losing 5 of her last 7 fights, Casey actually looked improved last time out against JJ Aldrich. Her striking looked better and she out struck Aldrich at almost a 2 to 1 clip. But Aldrich repeatedly took her down and that won her the split decision. Jojua will want to do the same thing but I don’t think she’ll be able to as I have her grappling as a 55. I think Casey forces her to stand and has the better striking and a lot more power.
Chris’ Pick: Casey by decision.
Marc Diakiese vs Rafael Alves
- Marc Diakiese
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Drakkar Klose.
- Key Wins: Beat Joseph Duffy and Lando Vannata.
- Tools: Diakiese has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Rafael Alves
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 19-10
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 2-3 striker, a well rounded 36-15 fighter, and a 4-1-1 grappler.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 5-1 grappler, a 9-2 striker, and a 14-2 grappler. Knocked out a well rounded 15-4 fighter. Beat a 16-5 grappler and a 17-2 wrestler.
- Tools: Alves has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Diakiese is better than his record. 5-4 record, but he’s lost to guys like Rafael Fiziev, Nasrat Haqparast, and Dan Hooker. He did show improved wrestling in the Fiziev fight. I grade it a 55 now. And that should be enough to beat Alves who’s well rounded, but lacks any above average tools.
Chris’ Pick: Diakiese by decision.
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Da Un Jung
- Kennedy Nzechukwu
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Danilo Marques and Carlos Ulberg.
- Tools: Nzechukwu has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Da Un Jung
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 14-2-1
- UFC Record: 3-0-1
- Key Draws: Fought Sam Alvey to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mike Rodriguez. Submitted Khadis Ibragimov. Beat William Knight, a 4-0 grappler, and a 6-1 grappler.
- Tools: Jung has above average striking (60). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Yes, Nzechukwu’s knockout win over Danilo Marques looked impressive. But the main reason he won is Marques gassed out, hanging on Nzechukwu’s back almost the whole 1st round. Un Jung recently improved his wrestling to a 65 and I see no problem in him taking Nzechukwu down. That is, unless Nzechukwu has improved his take down defense. But I try not to project in picking fights unless I have to.
Chris’ Pick: Un Jung by decision.