#1 Cain Velasquez (9-1) vs. #5 Bigfoot Silva (9-3) – for heavyweight title
Pick: Cain Velasquez – From a pure prognosticating stand point, how can you not pick Cain Velasquez? After Velasquez laid a beatdown of epic proportions on Bigfoot Silva last memorial day weekend, what argument could be made that Bigfoot has a chance? Well, since getting beatdown, Bigfoot produced two big knockouts over Travis Browne and Alistair Overeem. And Velasquez himself has shown that a heavyweight is capable of getting beat by someone and then coming back and avenging the loss like he did against Junior Dos Santos. And any heavyweight with knockout power is a threat to win. But even that all being said. I have to pick Cain Velasquez. Bigfoot is slower and always looks like a fish out of water when he gets put on his back, which most likely will happen in this fight.
#3 Junior Dos Santos (9-1) vs. #9 Mark Hunt (5-3) – winner probably gets heavyweight title shot
Pick: Junior Dos Santos – Mark Hunt is a great fighter and deserves this high profile fight. Junior Dos Santos is on another level though. He’s destroyed a who’s who in the heavyweight division with the exception of losing to Velasquez his last time out. The interesting part of this fight will be if Dos Santos tries to take Mark Hunt down. Hunt is not good off his back and supposedly Dos Santos BJJ is very good, even though we’ve yet to see it. But Dos Santos is usually a sprawl and brawl guy and likes to keep the fight standing. And that is where Hunt could have a chance to win on the feet. I’m tempted to pick Hunt in an upset, but Dos Santos’ striking is way more technical and that’ll be the difference.
#6 Glover Teixeira (3-0) vs. #13 James Te Huna (5-1)
Pick: Glover Teixeira – James Te Huna has deserved the spotlight for awhile now, garnering a 5-1 record in the UFC and his only loss being to top contender Alexander Gustafsson. And a lot of people are saying that Te Huna’s win over Ryan Jimmo wasn’t that impressive and showed flaws in his game. But their mistake in having that opinion is that Ryan Jimmo over the next couple years will prove how good he is and look back and see that it was a quality win for Te Huna. I look at the light heavyweight division and you see guys like Rashad Evans, Dan Henderson, Shogun Rua, Forest Griffin, Rampage Jackson, Lil Nog all old and on their way out. And I look at guys like Glover Teixeira, Alexander Gustafsson, Phil Davis, James Te Huna and Ryan Jimmo being the future and in the top ten rankings for years and years to come. But Teixeira is way further in his development than Te Huna. And he has the experience now of being in big fights, being in the spotlight and not wilting. This is the biggest fight in Te Huna’s career and he could have jitters. That won’t be the case for Teixeira, so I like Glover in this fight.
#2 Gray Maynard (9-1) vs. #7 TJ Grant (4-0) – winner gets lightweight title shot
Pick: Gray Maynard – It seems like every pay per view, a trendy upset pick emerges amongst the mma prognosticating experts. And this month’s trendy upset pick is TJ Grant. I can’t disagree with this pick more. I still remember Grant getting out grappled by UFC washout Ricardo Almeida and looking sub par as a welterweight. But don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying Grant is a bad lightweight or not deserving of this fight because he does deserve this fight and he has looked good. But I see Maynard as the #2 best lightweight in the world having wins over Clay Guida, Kenny Florian, Nate Diaz, Jim Miller and even one win over Frankie Edgar. His only loss was against Frankie in their third fight. The only loss in his career. People are sleeping on Maynard big time. Gray is going to win decisively and cement his title shot.
#11 Donald Cerrone (12-5) vs. KJ Noons (5-4)
Pick: Donald Cerrone – Noons is only getting this fight because people know his name. He’s not even a top 25 fighter. Cerrone is going to wipe the mat with this guy and finish him.
#11 Mike Pyle (7-3) vs. #19 Rick Story (8-4)
Pick: Mike Pyle – This is the toughest fight to pick on the card. I want to pick Story. He’s the only fighter to beat #1 contender Johny Hendricks. But he’s too inconsistent and had no business losing to Charlie Brenneman. Pyle has quietly collected three consecutive first round knockouts. His only loss in his last seven fights was to Rory MacDonald. I wouldn’t be surprised at all with a Rick Story win here, but I have to pick Pyle. He’s been the more consistent lately.
#17 Dennis Bermudez (3-1) vs. #18 Max Holloway (3-1)
Pick: Dennis Bermudez – On paper this is a close fight between two rising prospects in the featherweight division, but Bermudez’s wrestling and strength will be the difference here.
#41 Robert Whittaker (1-0) vs. #44 Colton Smith (1-0)
Pick: Colton Smith – I want to pick Whittaker in this fight because I really don’t like Smith’s one dimensional lay and pray style, but Whittaker’s last fight before being on TUF was a loss to Jesse Juarez, where he was outwrestled for three rounds. Smith will follow the same blueprint here and do what he does best.
#13 Khabib Nurmagomedov (3-0) vs. #46 Abel Trujillo (1-0)
Pick: Khabib Nurmagomedov – His name is pronounced Nurma-go-may-dov. You should remember it because he is a future title contender at lightweight. Ever since seeing Khabib beat Gleison Tibau in just his second fight in the UFC, I knew this fighter had something special. This is one of the fights I’m looking forward to most on the card because Abel Trujillo is a very good lightweight prospect and looked extremely impressive in his debut fight. But Trujillo has 4 losses in his career already against fighters that aren’t that great. Khabib is undefeated. That’s a recipe for a Nurmagomedov win.
#47 Nah-Shon Burrell (4-1) vs. Stephen Thompson (1-1)
Pick: Stephen Thompson – This is very close fight to pick and initially I was going to pick Burrell. But then I was reminded of Burrell’s knockout loss to UFC washout Chris Spang. And Thompson had some crazy undefeated streak as a kick boxer, then mma fighter of being like 65-0 or something ridiculous like that before losing to Matt Brown. But Brown has looked extraordinary lately. And Thompson is still a young, growing fighter. I like Thompson to shine here.
#6 Brian Bowles (7-2) vs. #21 George Roop (1-1)
Pick: Brian Bowles – How in the world is this fight buried on the Facebook prelims?? Bowles is a former bantamweight champion coming off a year and a half lay off, losing only to top fighters like Dominick Cruz and Urijah Faber. George Roop is a solid fighter at 135 lbs, but Bowles is elite and will reclaim that position here.
Jeremy Stephens (7-8) vs. Estevan Payan (0-0, Unranked WW Prospect)
Pick: Jeremy Stephens – I’m not that high on Payan as a prospect. He doesn’t have the resume of most fighters that the UFC signs, but he’s getting this fight because he signed a deal to fight in Strikeforce on short notice. Sort of the way Mark Hunt got his chance in the UFC and we’ve seen how that’s turned out. But Payan is the type of fighter that Stephens usually feasts on and the type of unworthy opponent that will get Stephens back on track.