FLYW: #1 Demetrious Johnson (3-0) vs. FLYW: #3 John Moraga (2-0)
Pick: Demetrious Johnson – Moraga has looked good early on in the UFC and people have been saying he’s never fought anyone on Johnson’s level. That’s not necessarily true because Moraga has fought John Dodson and lost a decision. However Johnson and his speed are on another level. And Moraga doesn’t have the resume outside the UFC to show that he’s anywhere close to Ian McCall or Joseph Benavidez’s level.
WW: #4 Rory MacDonald (5-1) vs. WW: #6 Jake Ellenberger (8-2)
Pick: Rory MacDonald – The bookies have MacDonald favored as much as -240 which I think is pretty ridiculous. This fight to me is more of a pick em. I keep going back and forth on who to pick, but the difference is Rory’s age and how he gets better every fight. Plus, there’s a blueprint to beating Ellenberger. Survive the 1st round blitz and then he’ll get tired Shane Carwin style. Plus, I don’t care what anyone says, Rory should have beat Carlos Condit. He didn’t, because Condit got lucky. I like Rory in this fight. But it could be very close.
WW: #13 Robbie Lawler (5-2) vs. WW: #38 Bobby Voelker (3-2)
Pick: Robbie Lawler – I was disappointed when Tarec Saffiedine got hurt. I was really disappointed when Siyar Bahadurzada got hurt. Because once the fight is made official, Lawler has to stay on the main card no matter what due to main card money deals with sponsors and such. This fight is blah. Lawler by knockout in the first round.
WBW: #9 Liz Carmouche (0-1) vs. WBW: Jessica Andrade (0-0, #2 WBW Prospect)
Pick: Jessica Andrade – My upset special of the night! Ok, so, the bookies have Carmouche favored as high as -600. Huge favorite! To me, there are red flags all over the place on picking Carmouche. In her 8 wins, she has never beaten anyone with a winning record. And some people are saying, oh Carmouche has fought the best and will have the experience advantage. But just because you lose to elite fighters doesn’t somehow make you good. Normally, I’d have no problem picking Carmouche to win against a UFC newcomer, but Andrade is no ordinary newcomer. Andrade is coming off the biggest win of her career, the win that got her the UFC deal. A win over 8-1 Milana Dudieva. And Dudieva was on a 8 fight win streak, hadn’t lost since 2009. And not only did Andrade beat her, submit her, but flew from Brazil to Russia and beat her on her own turf. Carmouche has never beat anybody as good as Milana Dudieva. People are picking Carmouche because she’s a former title challenger and because they don’t know who Andrade is. Well, they’ll know her after tonight.
LW: #31 Jorge Masvidal (4-1) vs. LW: #33 Mike Chiesa (2-0)
Pick: Mike Chiesa – This is another very tough fight to pick and I was close to picking Masvidal. But Chiesa is for real topping a very, very good class of TUF. And people will hate on Chiesa, saying he’s no good, to justify them not watching TUF because they’ll say it’s not relevant. Masvidal is good, but he’s not great. Chiesa will win here the same way he normally does. He’ll get Masvidal to the ground and choke him out.
LW: #18 Danny Castillo (10-5) vs. LW: #50 Tim Means (2-1)
Pick: Tim Means – Another upset pick. Castillo is the prototypical gate keeper. Beats guys that don’t belong in the UFC, loses to upper tier fighters. Catillo’s losses to Michael Johnson and Jacob Volkmann to me, show that Castillo has reached the peak of his fighting potential. Means is young and has a very good resume outside the UFC including a knockout win over Bobby Green. Plus, I think highly of Justin Salas and Means knocked him out. I think Means learned a lot in the Masvidal loss.
LW: #40 Melvin Guillard (12-8) vs. LW: #49 Mac Danzig (5-6)
Pick: Melvin Guillard – The UFC matched Guillard up pretty well against a lower tier gate keeper in Danzig. The fight is going to stay on the feet which plays to Guillard’s advantage.
LW: #39 Yves Edwards (3-4) vs. LW: #51 Daron Cruickshank (2-1)
Pick: Daron Cruickshank – Edwards is still a serviceable fighter, but Cruickshank is talented and young and better in the stand up.
MW: #20 Ed Herman (7-6) vs. MW: #54 Trevor Smith (0-1)
Pick: Ed Herman – Trevor Smith has no business fighting in the UFC. He’s only getting this fight because of being carried over from Strikeforce.
WBW: #11 Julie Kedzie (0-0) vs. WBW: #12 Germaine de Randamie (0-0)
Pick: Germaine de Randamie – Unfortunately for Kedzie, she’s getting her UFC shot too late in her career. De Randamie’s record of 3-2 outside the UFC is not very good, but her 46-0 kickboxing record is. And her 2 losses were to very good fighters in Vanessa Porto and Julia Budd. Both better than Kedzie. It’s too early to tell how much better de Randamie can get, but she should be good enough at this point to beat Kedzie.
LW: #60 Justin Salas (1-1) vs. LW: #71 Aaron Riley (3-4)
Pick: Justin Salas – This is an example of the UFC showing loyalty to fighters they like. Riley is an over the hill journeyman and Salas is good enough to stick around in the UFC for awhile. Salas all day here.
BW: #32 John Albert (1-3) vs. BW: Yaotzin Meza (0-0, #40 UFC FW)
Pick: John Albert – Meza didn’t get signed to the UFC because of how good he is or the great resume he’s produced. He’s getting this fight because he was the only fighter the UFC could find on 1 week’s notice that was willing to fight Chad Mendes. Albert has had a hard luck UFC career so far. I don’t know how much longer he stays in the UFC, but he’s certainly good enough to beat Meza.