My UFC 212 pay per view fight picks are in. Feel free to make money off of them. My record of picking fights correctly in 2017 is pretty close to my career average, 2 out of 3 fights correct (66%).
-Max Holloway: This time last week, Holloway was the slight favorite, but the past few days, late money has been rolling in on Jose Aldo making him the small favorite. This fight could go either way and is really a coin flip, but throughout the past 10 years I’ve been picking UFC fights, all things being close to equal, the younger, up and coming fighter usually beats the older fighter with more fight mileage on his body. Since losing a decision to Conor McGregor, Holloway has beaten and finished most of a who’s who of the 145 lb division. And he just turned 25 years old which is really young in the fight game. I think Holloway will do to Aldo the same thing McGregor did, which is catch up and finish him. Holloway is a very similar fighter to McGregor and I think it’s a bad matchup for Aldo.
-Karolina Kowalkiewicz: UPSET SPECIAL. To me this fight is a pick em. And there’s no way Claudia Gadelha should be a -375 favorite. That’s nuts. Gadelha is best known for almost beating 115 lb. champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk in their first fight. Since then, Gadelha wasn’t able to finish two average fighters in Jessica Aguilar and Cortney Casey. I thought Kowalkiewicz came closer to beating Jedrzejczyk than Gadelha. And Kowalkiewicz also has a win over the one of the best strawweights in the division in Rose Namajunas. In actuality, Gadelha does not have a big win over a top strawweight. The betting public is overlooking that and I like the upset.
-Vitor Belfort: Both Belfort and Marquardt are in the twilight of their careers, but Marquardt hasn’t been an elite fighter for years. I think Belfort has enough left in the tank to get the job done.
-Paulo Borrachinha: The easiest fight to pick on the card, with Borrachinha being the best prospect on the card. Borrachinha has beat top competition and never fought in the 2nd round. He’ll finish Oluwale Bamgbose pretty easy.
-Erick Silva: Silva is famous for some nights looking like a title contender and the next fight looking like he doesn’t belong in the UFC. This fight against Yancy Medeiros is tailor made to help him continue his rebound, as Medeiros is just as reckless as Silva. With the exception of getting knocked out by Nordine Taleb, Silva has looked improved in his last 5 fights and I think was most impressive in finishing a great prospect in Luan Chagas. I think Silva wins a wild one here.
-Marlon Moraes: Crazy how this fight isn’t on the pay per view, as I think it’s the 3rd best fight all night. No doubt Rafael Assuncao is a top bantamweight in the division. But he’s older. Has more mileage. And Moraes was a champion for a long time in World Series of Fighting and never lost that belt beating top prospects fight after fight. Moraes confidence will be the difference.
-Eric Spicely: UPSET SPECIAL 2. Really, really surprised at the odds here with Antonio Carlos Jr. as a -300 favorite. After this fight was announced, I figured Spicely would be a slight favorite, maybe -150, or as high as
-200. So -300 for Carlos Jr. is just crazy to me. Carlos Jr. is a fighter that will outgrapple fighters that don’t really belong in the UFC. A lighter tier gatekeeper. But Spicely is coming off 2 first round finishes in the UFC and I think it’s possible he could be a title contender. Maybe. He didn’t really fight top competition before signing with the UFC.
-Matthew Lopez: Tough fight to pick, but Lopez really won me over when he beat Mitch Gagnon. Lopez fought a lot of top fighters before making it to the UFC. Solid prospect. Johnny Eduardo is the classic gatekeeper, but he’s been fighting professionally since 1997 and has a lot of wear and tear on his body. Got to go with the younger, fresher fighter.
-Iuri Alcantara: Easy fight to pick. Alcantara is on a whole other level than Brian Kelleher. Plus Alcantara is coming off a super impressive win over blue chip prospect Luke Sanders.
-Viviane Pereira: Even though the sportsbooks have this fight as a pick em, I really like Pereira in this fight. Pereira has an undefeated 12-0 record, beaten very good competition and is coming off a win over a title contender in Val Letourneau. She’s going to be pretty confident against Jamie Moyle, who is only an average prospect.
-Luan Chagas: 23 year old Chagas has some questions on if he’s a top prospect. Fighting to a draw against Sergio Moraes in his 1st UFC fight was decent. But then he got submitted to a fading Erick Silva. However, Chagas is fighting journeyman Jim Wallhead. And Chagas does have a track record of beating experienced fighters on the regional circuit. I think Wallhead has more question marks with age and mileage.
-Marco Beltran: When first looking at the fighter’s records, it could appears this is an easy fight to pick. 8-4 Beltran vs 11-0 Deiveson Figueiredo. But the tricky thing about picking fights in the lightest weight classes is that some fighters fight above their natural weight class. Which is the case with Beltran. He has 2 wins in the UFC at 145 lbs. 1 win 1 loss at 135 lbs. And now this is his 1st fight at 125 lbs. Which means this is probably the best version of him. And I’m not sold on Figueiredo’s track record outside the UFC. Too many fights against amateur fighters. Plus his 1st fight in the UFC where jitters happen most of the time.