Kelvin Gastelum: December 12, 2015, Chris Weidman hasn’t been the same. At the time, I had Weidman as the #2 middleweight prospect. Weidman then goes on to dethrone the invincible Anderson Silva. Undefeated. Weidman then defended the belt 3 times against Silva in a rematch, then Machida and Belfort. And then all of a sudden, the bottom fell out losing a lopsided fight to Luke Rockhold. Weidman has now lost 3 in a row and looked his worst in a loss to Gegard Mousasi. I’ve been following the UFC closely for 10 years now and when a champion loses the belt and their aura of invincibility, they almost never come back the same. Georges St. Pierre and Conor McGregor would be the rare exceptions. Once the mojo is gone, it’s gone. And Gastelum is not a bounce back opponent meant for Weidman to look good. He’s 25 years old and really becoming a contender with knockouts over Tim Kennedy and Vitor Belfort. When Gastelum fought at 170 lbs, his biggest obstacle was usually the weight cut. But since moving up to 185 lbs, he’s really looked more healthy, stronger, better cardio. I’m pulling for Weidman to pull off the comeback win, but I just don’t see anyway it happens.
Darren Elkins: UPSET SPECIAL 1: Very surprised on the line here and a very good time to bet, with Elkins at a +195 underdog. Bermudez is coming off a first round knockout loss and has lost the last 3 of out 5 fights. Meanwhile Elkins is coming in with confidence from the biggest win of his career over Mirsad Bektic. Plus he’s won 4 fights in a row including tough opponents in Chas Skelly, Godofredo Pepey and Mirsad Bektic. I just don’t understand the logic for Bermudez being such a bigger favorite. Maybe the betting public doesn’t see Bektic for the top contender he really is. Elkins has a 12-4 record in the UFC. Bermudez has a 9-4 record. I just don’t see any reason to pick Bermudez. This is one of the more confident upset picks I’ve had in awhile. Elkins should cruise here.
Patrick Cummins: UPSET SPECIAL 2: It’s a shame Cummins started his MMA career at such an older age. Being that he’s only had 13 pro fights, he’s still developing and getting better, but his body is now 36 years old. But only the best in the UFC have beaten him. Cormier on very short notice. OSP, Texieira, Little Nog. And Cummins wins over Antonio Carlos Jr and Jan Blachowicz were solid, albeit decision wins. Gian Villante just hasn’t developed at all. He’s still the same fighter and I see Cummins being able to outwrestle him and maybe even TKO Villante with ground and pound.
Thomas Almeida: UPSET SPECIAL 3: Real coin flip of a fight here. A bunch of sports books have Almeida as a +165 underdog which is great value. Yes, I could easily see Rivera outwrestle Almieda to victory, like he has in so many of his fights. But I question Rivera’s resume. So many fights he’s had with below average fighters outside the UFC he couldn’t finish. And the Faber and Alcantara decision wins are OK, but both are towards the end of their career. I think his biggest test in the UFC was Pedro Munhoz, who he barely beat. And I’m starting to think Munhoz is a bit overrated and not the #1 prospect in the division that so many people thought he was, taking a little luster from Rivera on that Munhoz win. On the flip side, I believe Almeida is a special prospect. He has 6 fights in the UFC and is still only 25 years old, which means he’s still developing and will continue to get a lot better. Rivera is just too one dimensional. And fighters that fail to become more well rounded almost never become champion. I can see Almeida keeping the fight at a distance, staying away from the take downs, and catching Rivera with a knockout.
Lyman Good: Elizeu Dos Santos career started to look back on the upswing after finishing 3 really good fighters in Rodrigo Souza, Itamar Rosa, and Eduardo Ramon. But then lost the same way to Nicolas Dalby the same way he lost his other 4 fights when he went on an ugly 4-3 stretch. There’s a blueprint for beating Dos Santos. At 32 years old, Good probably isn’t going to get too much better than he is. He’s probably at his ceiling. But I think Good will beat Dos Santos the same way Dalby did. Keep the distance, technical striking, stick and move. Except Good has way more power and could finish.
Rafael Natal: Blows my mind that the bookies have this fight as a pick em. When the UFC signed Eryk Anders as a short notice replacement to fight Natal, I thought for sure, Natal would be the biggest favorite on the card. But it’s a pick em! Maybe it’s a pick em because Anders is undefeated and has been on TV with LFA. But Anders is an average prospect at best. He’s 30 years old which is late for making his UFC debut. And only 1 of his 7 fights was against a quality prospect, Brendan Allen, who Anders won by decision. Natal, and especially the short camp, will be way too much for Anders.
-Alex Oliveira: UPSET SPECIAL 4: One dimensional fighters never become champion. And that’s what Ryan Laflare is. He’s hasn’t developed at all. Yes, he does have a 6-1 record in the UFC, but every single one of his wins has been by decision, via taking fighters down and laying on them. Oliveira looked like a different fighter when he moved up to welterweight to finish Tim Means, something that’s not easy to do. Yes, Laflare has a decision win over new contender Santiago Ponzinibbio. But that was Ponzinibbio’s debut fight when he was more green. Besides that, Laflare has only been beating older fighters at the tail end of their careers. So I think Laflare is a bit overrated and Oliveira underrated. Enough for me to pick the upset.
-Chase Sherman: Damian Grabowski made it into the UFC a bit too late in his career. Now 37 years old, Grabowski has lost the last 3 out of 4 fights. Most condemning was getting knocked out by lowly Anthony Hamilton. Chase Sherman is 1-2 in the UFC, but he’s 27 years old which is young for heavyweights and should be developing still. Whichever level Sherman is at, it should be enough to knockout Grabowski who is towards the end of his career.
-Jeremey Kennedy: I’m not impressed by Kyle Bochniak. On the regional scene, he didn’t fight a single qualty prospect. 2 of the 6 tomato cans he fought, he couldn’t finish. And then after signing with the UFC lost to Charles Rosa and eked out a split decision win over Enrique Barzola. I’m not that impressed by Kennedy either, but he’s only 24. His resume is just as weak as Bochniak’s, but is also cutting down to 145 lbs for the first time. Maybe as he gets older and fights at a lower weight class, he develops more power. I think that’s decently likely and is enough for me to pick him over Bochniak.
-Brian Kelleher: Every now and then there are fighters that reinvent themselves mid career. And since losing to Andy Main back in 2014, that’s exactly what Kelleher has done. The Iuri Alcantara submission was no fluke. Before signing with the UFC, Kelleher also accumulated wins over very good competition in Mark Cherico, Julio Arce (twice), and current UFC fighter Andre Soukhamthath. His opponent Marlon Vera is very young for a fighter with 5 fights in the UFC already. He’s going to continue to devlop and get better, but there’s no way Vera presents a bigger challenge than Alcantara did. Kelleher should finish here.
-Timothy Johnson: A lot of unanswered questions when it comes to Johnson. The former top prospect is 3-2 in the UFC. I want to think he’s better than his record shows. He has the track record of knocking out very good competition before signing with the UFC. His most impressive win was his debut knocking out Shamil Abdurakhimov. Since then, he got smothered by Jared Rosholt, which isn’t too much of a knock. Had an impressive win over emerging contender Marcin Tybura. Lost a close split decision to another emerging contender Alexander Volkov. But then barely eked out a close split decision win over an average Daniel Omielanczuk. Not sure what to make of Johnson’s future, but who Junior Albini is, is much more clear. Outside the UFC, Albini has a 13-2 record. Only 3 of those fights have been against fighters that I would consider decent, or good prospects. And Albini lost 2 of those 3 fights. Pretty confident there’s a Johnson knockout here.
-Shane Burgos: Very tempting fight to bet on Godofredo Pepey as one sports book has him as a +500 dog, which is just craziness. Yes, Pepey has an average 5-4 record in the UFC. But the betting public likely hasn’t paid too much attention to Pepey’s last 4 fights. I remember the Noad Lahat fight. Pepey was 1-3 in the UFC at the time. Most fighters would be released with that record, but Pepey is popular in Brazil, so the UFC gave him one more chance. He was matched up against undefeated, top prospect Noad Lahat. Most people, including myself, thought this fight was booked for Lahat to make a statement and look good in his debut. But shockingly, Pepey landed a flying knee 2 minutes into the contest and it was all over. Since then Pepey has won 4 of his last 5 fights. 4 first round finishes. And only losing to co-main event fighter Darren Elkins, due to Elkins using his wrestling to grind Pepey out. Seems like I’m making a case for a Pepey upset. I’m not. Just pointing out he’s a solid underdog pick. But I’m picking the favorite because Burgos is a very legit top prospect, with finishes over some very impressive opponents including Charles Rosa and Bill Algeo. This is actually a very, very solid fight that could either way. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Pepey pulls the upset, but I think it’s more likely Burgos takes the decision.
-Chris Wade: Interesting fight in the sense that this is a rematch between Wade and Frankie Perez from 2014 in Ring of Combat where Wade won a close contest by split decision. But I’m not big on either fighter. Wade does have a 4-2 record in the UFC, but nothing memorable. Wade could stick around as a lower tier gate keeper beating fighters with no wrestling skills. Perez has been even less impressive, but he already has it in the back of his mind he’s fighting someone he lost to already. Wade will take a more clear decision in their rematch.