-Cris Cyborg: This is almost an exhibition fight. And the product of there being no quality 145 lb opponents for Cyborg. This is going to be a massacre. Yuna Kunitskaya fights at 135 lbs. She’s smaller. Has lost the last 2 out of 4 fights. Lost to Tonya Evinger. Who Cyborg knocked out last year. And Kunitskaya also lost Zaira Dyshekova, a 21 year old fighter who had a 2-2 record at the time. Kunitskaya has 0 chance of winning this fight and only got the title shot because the UFC needed an opponent for Cyborg. UFC needs a female 145 lb Ultimate Fighter in the worst way. Cyborg by knockout whenever she wants to do it.
-Brian Ortega: My original pick for this fight was to go with Frankie Edgar, but I’m changing it to Ortega. I feel like at the end of the day, prospects that are special beat the old guard. Usually. Not always. I think Ortega is special based on his ju-jitsu. He’s special in the sense that he could be losing the fight, but if he grabs a hold of his opponent, it could be over. No different than always feeling a big heavyweight is 1 punch away from a knockout. Edgar is very legit and underrated though. Has seen everything. Very good wrestling. Edgar is quietly, one of the best pound for pound fighters in the UFC. In 22 UFC fights, Edgar has only lost to 3 opponents. Gray Maynard 10 years ago. 2 close decision losses to Ben Henderson in his prime. And 2 losses to Jose Aldo. Aldo beat Edgar because Edgar wasn’t able to take Aldo down and had better striking on the feet. Now, Edgar’s wrestling in theory should keep the fight on the feet. And at first I thought if that happens, Edgar will probably catch Ortega with a knockout. But the truth is that Ortega can grab a guillotine choke from the feet and it could be over, as shown in his breakthrough win over Cub Swanson. Very possible Edgar stays away from Ortega and outstrikes him for the win. But with Edgar being such a favorite, I got to go with the safer underdog pick in Ortega. 2nd round submission.
-Sean O’Malley: UPSET SPECIAL 1: UFC thinks O’Malley could be a star and that’s why he’s on the pay per view main card in only his 2nd pro fight. He could be a star. He’s 23 years old with a flashy fighting style and personality. So it can be important to know who the UFC brass likes because they will match fighters like O’Malley very carefully in hoping they pick up the win. Andre Soukhamthath is very similar to Terrion Ware. Very similar. Well rounded. Has power. Decent wrestling. Average striking. If Ware couldn’t take O’Malley down I don’t think Soukhamthath can either. Fight will stay on the feet. My only concern is that Soukhamthath is really durable and hard to finish and O’Malley may gas out trying to finish him in the 1st round. But I think he’s smart enough to learn how to pace himself from the Ware fight and think O’Malley will cruise to a decision win.
-Stefan Struve: Can’t believe Struve has had 19 fights in the UFC and he’s only 30 years old. That’s nuts. In any case, why is the UFC still giving Andrei Arlovski fights?? Is the heavyweight division that thin?? Struve is 12-7 in the UFC. Is in his prime. He only loses to title contenders. Arlovski is not that anymore. Arlovski had lost 5 in a row before beating Junior Albini by decision. That doesn’t convince me he’s back. Struve is going to knock Arlovski out in the 1st round.
-Cat Zingano: UPSET SPECIAL 2: Question: Who was the last fighter to beat and knockout 135 lb champion Amanda Nunes? Probably a tough question. Answer is Cat Zingano. Yeah. Didn’t just beat Nunes, but knocked her. But Zingano has been out of sight, out of mind. Zingano last fought almost 2 years ago. And since 2013, she’s only fought 4 times. Not very active. But when she has been active, besides knocking out Nunes, she also knocked out Miesha Tate and submitted title contender Raquel Pennington. Ketlen Vieira. Really good prospect. 26 years old. 3-0 in the UFC. Coming off big submission win over Sara McMann. But it’s not her time yet. Striking wise, Zingano will be too steep a jump in competition. Vieira also fought Kelly Fasholz and when Vieira struggled to take her down and had to keep the fight on the feet, she barely won a split decision. I think Zingano keeps the fight on the feet and knocks Vieira out in the 2nd round.
-MacKenzie Dern: The UFC was really smart in choosing which opponent Dern fights in her debut, as many see Dern as a possible star. The opponent is Ashley Yoder. 0-3 in the UFC if you count her loss on the TUF. So not only is the UFC matching Dern up with the least biggest threat in the division, the style matchup also overwhelmingly favors Dern. Yoder is a submission specialist herself. 5 pro wins. 0 knockouts. Yoder is no threat on the feet. And Dern is a ju-jitsu world champion. I think Dern will want to keep the fight on the feet where Yoder is least comfortable, to also work on her improving striking. And I think Dern catches Yoder with a punch and then taps her out on the ground for a 1st round submission.
-Beneil Dariush: This is going to be a really brutal fight for Alexander Hernandez. He’s making his UFC debut on 1 week’s notice against Dariush who’s 8-3 in the UFC and a very good upper tier gatekeeper. Like the only guys Dariush loses to are Michael Chiesa, Edson Barboza. Hernandez, the best opponent he’s gone against had a 10-4 pro record. He’s fought nobody close to Dariush’s skill level. And out of the 8 tomato cans Hernandez has beat, he only finished 5 of the 8. Maybe Hernandez goes on to have a decent UFC career. He’s only 25 years old. But this is going to be an ugly 1st round knockout for Dariush.
-Pedro Munhoz: UPSET SPECIAL 3: I just think this is Munhoz’s time right now. And that John Dodson has peaked in his career. Dodson is 33 years old. Lost 2 title fights. He’s 2-2 after moving up to 135 lbs in the UFC. I don’t think his confidence is at the same level anymore. Munhoz might be only a couple years younger, but he’s at a very different place developmentally. Munhoz is 5-2 in the UFC. His only 2 losses were against top 3 fighters in the division. And a split decision loss at that to Jimmie Rivera. Munhoz is coming into his prime and never looked better after an extremely impressive win over rising contender Rob Font. Dodson is small at 135 lbs and I think Munhoz, being the much bigger fighter, is going to hurt Dodson with the big power difference. Not enough to knock Dodson out, but enough to pick up the decision win.
-CB Dollaway: UPSET SPECIAL 4: Hector Lombard has a reputation of being a knockout artist and a threat to knock his opponent out every fight he’s in. And yet, the last time Lombard picked up a knockout win was Nate Marquardt back in 2013, back when Lombard was 35 years old. Now Lombard is 40 years. Has lost a step. Not as quick. Small for the division. Lombard is going to come out aggressive in the 1st round thinking the only chance he has to win is blitzing Dollaway right away. Dollaway has been knocked out twice in his last 4 fights. But Dollaway is younger at 34 years old. Not as much fight mileage to his body. I just see Dollaway being able to weather the storm. Turn the tide in the 2nd round. Mix striking with wrestling and grappling. Keep Lombard off balance. And I see Dollaway taking the decision win.
-Mike Pyle: UPSET SPECIAL 5: For the longest time, Pyle was one of the better gate keepers at 170 lbs. Between 2099-2014, Pyle went 9-3, only losing to title contenders. But Pyle has lost 4 out of his last 5 fights, probably having to do with old age, being that Pyle is now 42 years old. But Pyle has had over a year to heal from injuries from his last fight. Now let’s talk about his opponent, Zak Ottow. He’s not good. He’s 2-2 in the UFC so far. But the 2 wins split decision wins over Josh Burkman and Kiichi Kunimoto. Something to look at. Pyle’s lost 5 of his last 7 fights. All 5 of the losses have been via knockout. Which means his chin can’t hold up anymore. Now, what type of fighter is Ottow? Submission fighter. 15 pro wins. 2 knockouts. Ottow isn’t effective because his wrestling and grappling are average. And I don’t think he’s going to get Pyle on the ground. And I think Pyle still has good stand up and power to knock Ottow out in the 2nd round.
-Cody Stamann: I was skeptical of Stamann going into his fight with Tom Duquesnoy. Questioned the below average competition Stamann fought against. Thought Duquesnoy would be too steep a jump for him. But wow, Stamann won that fight. It was a split decision win, but I thought Stamann won pretty easily. And going into that fight, a lot of people thought Duquesnoy was the #1 pound for pound prospect in all MMA. So it’s a bit risky for me to pick Stamann. Bryan Caraway is really good. 6-2 in the UFC.Very experienced. First pro fight was 2005. 33 years old. But the style matchup really favors Stamann. Caraway is a submission guy. Only has 1 knockout. Stamann’s wrestling is very good and I just don’t think Caraway is going to be able to grapple Stamann to the ground. I think the fight stays on the feet where Stamann has surprisingly good standup, as evidenced in his win over Duquesnoy. I think Stamann out points Caraway to pick up the decision.
-Jordan Johnson: It’s possible that Adam Milstead could be really good. But it’s hard to tell because the first time he took a step up in competition was against Chris de la Rocha. And de la Rocha only has a 4-1 record, 0-1 in the UFC. Johnson is an elite prospect. Beaten all sorts of quality prospects and is 2-0 in the UFC so far. I see Johnson being able to wrestle and grind Milstead if he needs to and Milstead having no answer. So I really like Johnson by decision.