-Al Iaquinta: UPSET SPECIAL 1: I’ll admit, this fight pick is all about the odds. If Khabib Nurmagomedov was favored by -200, then I’d pick Khabib. He’s absolutely, 100% legit. I’d say he’s probably the best lightweight in the world right now and has a great chance of beating Conor McGregor when they eventually fight. But right now, Khabib is favored as high as -600 to -800. That’s just way too high for me. Waaaaay too high. Khabib should be favored around -200 to -250. This is not the mismatch the general public thinks it is. Out of all the injury replacements for Tony Ferguson, Iaqunita is by far the most dangerous, possibly more dangerous than 145 lb champ Max Holloway. Why? Styles make fights. And Iaquinta is 180 degrees different than Ferguson or Holloway. Both those guys are volume strikers, phenomenal cardio, lack wrestling, good submissions. They’re decently similar. Iaquinta, great wrestling, knockout power, cardio is OK, lacks submission game. Just saying crazy things can happen when a fighter like Khabib has been training to fight one way his whole camp and now that’s all thrown out the window. And Iaquinta is no chump. He’s 8-2 in the UFC. How has Iaquinta lost? He got grappled to the ground by submission specialists and submitted. Khabib isn’t a world class black belt in ju-jitsu. But Iaquinta last lost in 2014 and I think he’s improved. He’s in his prime, 30 years old. He’s won 5 in a row, 4 of the 5 by knockout. Granted 4 of the 5 wins were against average competition in Rodrigo Damm, Ross Pearson, Joe Lauzon, and Diego Sanchez. But he knocked all 4 out. And the win over Jorge Masvidal is legit. And for all the hype Khabib has, he only has 2 signature wins. Rafael dos Anjos and Edson Barboza. But both were decision wins. If you asked me straight up who wins, I say Khabib is more likely to win here. But at -600 or -800, that’s nuts. I think Iaquinta has a decent chance to win this fight. It’s a 5 round fight. And I’m skeptical that that Khabib can keep the pace he’s known for, for 5 rounds. I think it’s possible Khabib tires and because Iaquinta is such a good wrestler, mid fight, 2nd or 3rd round, it’s possible Iaquinta stops the takedowns. And on the feet, Iaquinta has better striking and the power to knock Khabib out. Barboza’s knockout power is over rated. He caught Khabib with a few shots in the 3rd round of their fight, but Iaquinta has way more knockout power. So for all these possibilities on Iaquinta winning the fight and because he can be had at +570, I’m going to roll the dice and say Iaquinta wins by 4th round knockout in a barnburner of a fight.
-Joanna Jedrzejczyk: I will admit that most of the time, in rematches, whichever fighter won the first fight, wins the 2nd fight. But not all the time. So under what circumstances have fighters who lost the first fight come back and win the second fight? Cain Velasquez was knocked out by Junior dos Santos. Then Veslasquez came back and dominantly won the 2nd and 3rd fights. George St. Pierre was knocked out by Matt Serra. Then GSP dominantly won the 2nd fight. BJ Penn surprised Matt Hughes, knocking him down and getting the submission. Then Hughes dominantly won the rematch. So history says that favored fighters can get caught and be upset. It does happen sometimes. I think Joanna vs Rose Namajunas falls in the same category. The first big red flag is that when Namajunas knocked out Joanna, it was Namajunas’ first ever knockout in her pro career. So with Joanna thinking, well Jessica Andrade couldn’t knock me out, so Namajunas’ striking and power will be no threat. But low and behold, Namajunas’ developed, striking got better, power developed, but mostly, Joanna probably had a completely different game plan. Be aggressive in striking, knock her out quickly, avoid takedowns and Namajunas’ ground game. Going into this fight, Joanna’s game plan will be completely different. It’ll be a similar strategy that Karolina Kowalkiewicz used to outstrike and outpoint Namajunas back in 2016. I think Joanna will stay on the outside, stay away from the power and use her more technical striking to win a 5 round decision.
-Calvin Kattar: Alright, I’m a believer in Kattar now. His prospect profile doesn’t look that great. To me, he relied too heavily on his wrestling against below average prospects, not finishing them. And beating journeyman Kenny Foster by split decision as recently as 2016, did not make me think Kattar was that great of a prospect. I picked Kattar to lose in his debut against mid tier gatekeeper Andre Fili and Kattar surprised me. His wrestling was really the difference maker in the fight, but I was surprised at how dominant it was. And then Kattar was matched up against elite prospect and possible title contender Shane Burgos. And although my view of Kattar’s abilities had gone up, I thought no way he beats Burgos. And if he does, it’ll be because Burgos can’t stop the takedowns. And what does Kattar do? Knocks out Burgos! So there’s been some crazy upward development for Kattar in the last year to where it looks like he’s figured it out. Style wise, Kattar’s fight against Renato Moicano is tailor made for him. UFC made this fight to try and build Kattar into a star. Yes, Moicano is a really good prospect. Yes, he has a split decision win over Jeremey Stephens. But Moicano has 0 knockouts. His striking is decent, but 0 knockouts. So no power. Moicano’s strength is his ju-jitsu, but no way Moicano is going to be able to outwrestle Kattar and get this fight to the ground. The fight is going to stay on the feet and you can’t tell me that Moicano’s striking is better than Burgos’. Therefore, I predict a similar fight here, but I think Kattar takes the decision win, as Moicano proved how durable he is in the Stephens fight.
-Zabit Magomedsharipov: Zabit, to me, looks like he’s going to become a title contender. He’s well rounded. Unique striking. Has a resume of finishing top guys outside the UFC. His resume has everything you usually see in a contender. He takes on Kyle Bochniak who is pretty vanilla. Doesn’t really pose a threat to finish the fight anywhere. He usually wins by being well rounded and attacking his opponent where they’re weak. Zabit is well rounded too, but far more dangerous. I think Bochniak will try and take Zabit down, but I think he’ll fail and I see Zabit knocking Bochniak out in the 2nd round.
-Chris Greutzemacher: UPSET SPECIAL 2: This is Joe Lauzon’s 26th fight in the UFC. So even though he’s only 33 years old, 26 fights in the UFC is a ton of wear and tear on the body and I think that the end of Lauzon’s career is near. Finishing Michael Chiesa in 2014 was impressive, but in Lauzon’s next fight, he got knocked out by Al Iaquinta and he’s never been the same. Since, Lauzon has only been able to beat Diego Sanchez and Takanori Gomi, two fighters even more in decline than Lauzon. And Lauzon narrowly beat Marcin Held by split decision. And Held has just been released after going 1-3 in the UFC. Greutzemacher is not a top prospect. He’s 31 years old. Has gone 1-2 in the UFC so far. But he lost to Chas Skelly who’s really good (and found out 145 lbs is too harsh a cut for him). Lost to Davi Ramos, who’s a really good prospect. Greutzemacher has 2 submission losses in a row which shows a weakness in ju-jitsu. He has solid wrestling, but if he gets taken down, can get in trouble. Lauzon has great ju-jitsu, which gives him a possible path to victory, but I don’t think Lauzon is going to be able to take Greutzemacher down. I think this fight stays on the feet where Lauzon’s chin is not what it used to be and I think we get a Greutzemacher knockout in the 1st round.
-Karolina Kowalkiewicz: Who’s the last fighter to beat champion Rose Namajunas? Answer: Kowalkiewicz. She’s fast. Elusive. Very technical striking. Gets in and out and usually outpoints her opponents for the decision win. That’s how she beat Rose and how I think she beats Felice Herrig. Herrig is very well rounded, but doesn’t have any standout tools. It used to be that the blueprint to beating her was wrestling. She’s improved her wrestling. But she can also be defeated by opponents that are faster and have more skilled striking than her as shown in her losses to Tecia Torres and Paige Vanzant. Torres and Kowalkiewicz are pretty similar fighters and I think this fight will go the same. Kowalkiewicz will be in and out. Will out point Herrig. And will be able to avoid the grappling and take down attempts to get the decision win.
-Ashlee Evans-Smith: Pretty easy fight to pick. Evans-Smith is cutting to 125 lbs. for the first time. She should be bigger and stronger there. Bec Rawlings is 2-4 in the UFC. Pretty close to being released. Only 2 wins she has is over 2 other fighters that have been released. Meanwhile Evans-Smith is 2-3 in the UFC, not too much better, but her losses are against the best in the division. #1 contender Rocky Pennington, #2 Ketlen Veira. Then Sara Moras who’s pretty good. Plus Evans-Smith has a big win over Marion Reneau who’s top 5 at 135 lbs. Rawlings best strength is her ju jitsu. But I see Evans-Smith using her wrestling to keep the fight on the feet where she has much better striking. So much better I’ll pick an Evans-Smith knockout in the 2nd round.
-Oliver Aubin-Mercier: UPSET SPECIAL 3: Evan Dunham is a way better gate keeper than what I remember off the top of my head. He’s actually 11-6! That’s really good. Back in 2013, he was 7-3 and got 3 really big fights in a row, lost them all. Rafael dos Anjos, Donald Cerrone, and Edson Barboza. Then won 4 decisions in a row against 3 fighters that are over the hill and a decision win against future gate keeper Rick Glenn. So who is Aubin-Mercier? 6-2. 29 years old. In his prime. Has a split decision loss to Chad Laprise and a loss to Carlos Ferreira, who both are really good. I think Aubin-Mercier has more to go in his development, especially in the standup. I just really like the style matchup for Aubin-Mercier. He has some of the best wrestling in the division and I think that if Dunham gets the better of the striking that Aubin-Mercier can take Dunham down. So because of that I’m taking Aubin-Mercier by decision.
-Devin Clark: Mike Rodriguez might look like he has a nice record, with 7 of his 9 wins coming via knockout. But he’s feasted on tomato cans. The toughest opponents he’s beat have had 5-2, 7-4, 8-3 records. Clark’s third pro fight, he lost to Pat McCrohan via takedowns and wrestling. That’s Rodriguez’s weakness right now. And unfortunately for him, Clark is a pretty good wrestler. Not the best in the division, but likely good enough to take Rodriguez down. This is Rodriguez’s UFC debut. He’ll have the jitters. Clark’s 2-2 in the UFC so far. I think Clark will clinch. Push Rodriguez against the fence. Take him down occasionally. And control the fight enough to get the decision win.