
-Kamaru Usman: There’s a reason why no one at 170 lbs wants to fight Usman. And it’s usually a good way of figuring out amongst the fighters who they really think is best in the dvision. Recently, we’ve seen that with Khabib Nurmagomedov. Same thing with Usman and it’s very possible Usman is better than champion Tyron Woodley. Usman is in his prime. Has the best wrestling in the division. And now we’ve seen has knockout power. Lethal combination. And against Demain Maia, the wrestling will be used in reverse to keep the fight on the feet. Similar to how Colby Covington vs Maia fight. Maia is heading towards the end of his career and this is just the worst matchup for him. I think Usman knocks Maia out in the 2nd round.
-Tatiana Suarez: Winner of this fight is likely heading towards a title shot at 115 lbs in the near future. Both Suarez and Alexa Grasso are 2 of the best prospects in the division. But it’s a bad, bad matchup for Grasso. And surprising too considering the UFC would want to build Grasso up as a star for the Mexico market. Grasso is 2-1 in the UFC so far. Who’d she lose to? Felice Herrig. How’d she lose? Herrig outwrestled and outgrappled her. Grasso did show a little improvement in narrowly beating another wrestler in Randa Markos. But Suarez’s wrestling is THE best in the division. By a lot. And even though Grasso is 24 years old and is going to continue to get better, a year isn’t enough time to improve enough in wrestling to stop Suarez’s takedowns. I’ll even go out on a limb in saying that I even think Suarez will submit Grasso in the 2nd round.
-Dominick Reyes: This isn’t as obvious a pick as you might think. Yes, Reyes is 28 years old, in his prime, undefeated, and looked like a monster in his first 2 UFC fights. Looks like a possible contender. But when you look at the competition he’s gone against, it’s below average. I’d even grade his 2 UFC opponents Jeremy Kimball and Joachim Christensen as below average, which also shows how thin the 205 lb division is. Jared Cannonier is actually by far the best fighter Reyes has come against. But stylistically, it does favor Reyes. They’re both strikers, mainly. Reyes is maybe a little more well rounded. Probably a better ground game. But I think this fight takes place on the feet where it’s been proven that Cannonier can be outboxed. Reyes wins here via decision and it won’t be as dominant as you might expect.
-Andrea Lee: The UFC is not stupid. As a promotion, they know which prospects have the potential to be draws and stars for them. The vast majority of fighters that make their UFC debut, do it buried at the bottom of the prelims. Such is not the case for Lee, who makes her debut on the televised main card. Lee is an elite prospect. She’s defeated a plethora of solid opponents. And all 3 of the fighters she’s lost to have fought in the UFC. 2 of the 3 are still in the UFC in Roxy Modafferi and Katlyn Chookagian. Lee takes on Veronica Macedo who’s only 22 years old and will probably get better. But in the here and now, her skill level is nowhere close to where Lee’s is. This is a lopsided matchup made to make Lee look really good and she will look good in getting submitting Macedo in the 1st round.
-Diego Rivas: The main thing you need to know on who’s most likely to win this fight is that even though Rivas is only 2-1 in the UFC, he’s from Chile. And this event is the UFC’s debut in Chile. Therefore this fight with Rivas and Guido Cannetti has been placed on the main card to see if they can build Rivas into a draw in Chile. Cannetti is 1-2 in the UFC. 38 years old. Rivas is 26 years old. Only loss in his career is to a very good Jose Quinonez. Most fights in the UFC are pretty even, could go either way. Not this one. Rivas by 1st round submission.
-Chad Laprise: Very interesting fight between 2 potential contenders. Despite Vicente Luque’s pedestrian 12-6 pro record, he’s really come into his own the past few years. Very exciting fighter. Knockout power. Submission skills. But he has holes in his game. He’s like the 170 lb version of Thiago Santos. And he does have 6 losses for a reason. He can be out wrestled and controlled on the ground. And he can be beat by a patient, more technical striker. And with Laprise, he’s got the latter. Laprise will probably lose the 1st round. Weather the storm. And Luque will start to gas out early in the 2nd round. Laprise will start to take over, having way better cardio. And will out strike Luque in the 2nd and 3rd to pick up the decision win.
-Michel Prazeres: This is going to be a typical Prazeres fight. This fight is at 170 lbs though with Zak Cummings. Not 155 lbs where Prazeres has fought most of his career. But he’s had a hard time making weight and is 36 years old, so it’s pretty likely 170 lbs is going to be his home now. He’s still going to be big though and will still be able to out wrestle most opponents. Including Cummings. And Cummings is better than you probably think. 6-2 UFC record. However, all 6 of his wins have been over fighters the UFC has released. He’s an average striker. More of a submission guy. Wrestling is ok. Prazeres wrestling? Way better. Prazeres will have no problem doing what he does. Take downs. Ground control. Decision win. Bigger weight class won’t change anything for him.
-Brandon Moreno: This is actually THE toughest fight I’ve had to pick in the past few months. It could go either way and I’m not super confident in the pick. But I do see a slight edge for Moreno. Alexandre Pantoja. He was exposed in his last fight against Dustin Ortiz. He’s got issues with take down defense. Pantoja is well rounded. He’s the type of fighter that will look for the weakness in his opponent and attack it. And Moreno could have a weakness on his feet in the stand up. In Moreno’s last fight, Sergio Pettis was able to keep the fight on the feet and outclassed Moreno there. So this fight between Moreno and Pantoja really comes down to whether or not Moreno can get Pantoja to the ground. If Moreno can, he’s going to out grapple Pantoja and win the fight. If it stays on the feet, history says Pantoja probably has better stand up. Unless Moreno has continued his evolution and improved a ton. But I think there’s a really good chance Moreno can take Pantoja down. And because of that, I see Moreno winning by a razor close split decision.
-Poliana Botelho: Botelho is one of the best prospects in the world at 115 lbs. Knockouts are rare in this division and yet 5 of Botelho’s 6 wins have come via KO. She takes on a pretty good fighter in Syuri Kondo. Kondo is well rounded. Decent wrestling. But not on a high enough level to where I think Kondo is able to take Botelho to the ground. I think the fight stays on the feet where Botelho’s skills are far superior to Kondo’s in the stand up. So much so that I think Botelho knocks her out in the 2nd round.
-Humberto Bandenay: I don’t buy into the idea that Gabriel Benitez is a top prospect. I don’t. There’s no evidence to support he’s a top prospect. He has a 4-2 UFC record, which is pretty good. But 3 of the 4 wins he has were against opponents who are no longer in the UFC. And also, unbeknownst to most, Benitez has lost the last 4 out of 10 fights. Which includes 2 losses outside the UFC. But I’m mostly picking Bandenay to win this fight because of who he is. 23 years old. Unique profile. 14-4 pro record. Which isn’t great at all. But he turned pro at 18 years old. And he started to turn the corner and breakout in 2016 after losing to Arturo Chavez. Since then, he won 5 in a row. All finishes. Took on a guy who I do think is a top prospect in Martin Bravo. And Bandenay knocked him out in 26 seconds. Bandenay has explosive striking. Great with his submissions off the back. Lacks in wrestling. But his typical game plan is to be very aggressive on the feet. And if he gets taken down, his submission game takes over. In this fight, Benitez’s weakness is his ground game, so I don’t think he tries to take Bandenay down. I think fight stays on the feet, and if Andre Fili can knockout Benitez, then Bandenay should be able to do it too and in the 1st round.
-Enrique Barzola: Easy fight to pick. Barzola embodies the exact purpose of a gatekeeper. He’s a one dimensional fighter. In his case, his main tool is wrestling. Being one dimensional, he’s not going to be able to beat any of the elite fighters in his weight class because when he takes on someone who’s wrestling is just as good, he’s going to get taken apart on the feet. Or submitted on the ground. But Barzola serves a purpose to test young, up and coming talent on their wrestling. In this case, Barzola’s opponent Brandon Davis has decent wrestling, but it’s not on the same level of Barzola. Thus, Barzola will win a very predictable fight by doing what he always does. Takes his opponent down. Does enough to keep the fight there. Runs out the clock. Barzola via decision.
-Frankie Saenz: Pretty ho-hum fight. Both Saenz and Enrique Briones are 37 years old and towards the end of their careers. Briones is 1-4 in the UFC if you count his fight on The Ultimate Fighter. But he’s gotten a bit of a raw deal with his 4 losses coming against Cody Garbrandt, Marlon Vera, Douglas de Andrade, and Rani Yahya. Pretty brutal. Only average opponent he went against, Guido Cannetti, he submitted in the 2nd round. So it’s possible Briones could be better than we think. But he’s not young and improving. And stylistically, this is a bad fight for him. Briones is pretty well rounded, but has a weakness in wrestling. What does Saenz specialize in? Wrestling. And even though Saenz is old too, he showed in his last fight with fellow wrestler Merab Dvalishvili that he can still compete at a high level. No surprises here. Saenz by decision.
-Felipe Silva: Claudio Puelles is super young. 22 years old. He’s going to develop and get better. But I really don’t like his chances in this fight against Silva because Puelles doesn’t have a single win over a decent opponent. All tomato cans. And when making his UFC debut against Martin Bravo, he got knocked out in the 2nd round. Puelles is a little bit better on the ground then on the feet. He’s okay on the feet. Main problem for Puelles though is Silva is way better on the feet. I don’t think Puelles has the strength or grappling to take Silva down. Silva is very aggressive. 8 of his 9 fights end in the 1st round. I think that trend continues. Silva by 1st round knockout.