
-Conor McGregor: UPSET SPECIAL 1: Really confident in picking the underdog, McGregor in this fight against Khabib Nurmagomedov. There’s a bunch of reasons. First and foremost is the mental warfare aspect and Conor getting inside Khabib’s press conference. That matters. Look back to the Jose Aldo fight. Then there’s the fact that Conor has quietly improved his take down game. Look at the Eddie Alvarez fight. Alvarez is one of the 3 best wrestlers at 155 lbs and he couldn’t get anywhere close to taking Conor down. Then there’s Khabib’s lack of finishing ability. Yes, he can take opponents down, but his submission game is above average at best. His ground and pound looks vicious but in reality rarely finishes fights. There’s Conor’s improved pace where in his last fight with Alvarez he did a way better job of pacing himself and even though that fight ended in the early 2nd round, I’m confident Conor would’ve had the most gas in the tank he’s ever had towards the end of a 5 round fight. And with Khabib’s lack of finishing ability, it gives Conor more time to land the knockout. Yes, Khabib is 26-0 and never lost a round. But there’s a big gap in the quality of competition. Conor has knocked out a who’s who at both featherweight and lightweight. Khabib hasn’t fought the elite of the elite. And Khabib looked very beatable in his last fight with Al Iaquinta. Khabib couldn’t finish Al on the ground. Decided to see how the stand up went. And Khabib got caught with a bunch of shots. He would’ve been knocked out by Conor. And then there’s the intangible of big fight experience. This fight with Khabib is not the biggest fight Conor’s ever been in. I’d argue this is the 4th biggest fight he’s ever been in. Floyd Mayweather, Eddie Alvarez, and Jose Aldo all being bigger fights. But this is easily the biggest fight Khabib has ever been in and that matters when it comes to nerves. Conor will be loose. Khabib, it’s going to be hard for him to control the nerves. And despite all of what Conor does outside the cage, he’s very smart, very tactical. He hasn’t fought in over a year and knew this fight with Khabib was coming. And I guarantee you he’s been working on scrambles, getting back to the feet. Khabib’s record is impressive, but Conor’s run has been even more impressive and I think the betting public just forgot being that Conor hasn’t fought in the UFC in 2 years. I’m actually going to go out on a limb and say this fight is really similar to the Jose Aldo fight. I think Conor knocks Khabib out in the 1st round. I think Khabib immediately shoots in for takedowns and Conor’s trade mark accurate striking catches Khabib coming in.
-Tony Ferguson: Yes, Anthony Pettis looked like Showtime in his last fight for the first time in forever. But once again, Pettis was easily taken down in that fight. And if Ferguson wants to take Pettis down, he’ll be able to. Do I think Pettis can submit Ferguson? No way. But I think Ferguson is better than Pettis on the feet too and will use his pace as a weapon against him. I think eventually Ferguson is going to get Pettis on the ground and will submit him there. 2nd round.
-Dominick Reyes: Can Reyes keep the fight on the feet? That’s what it comes down to. And I’m tempted to pick Ovince St. Preux to win the fight because he’s a high quality, upper tier gate keeper. OSP only loses to the top 5 of the division. And there’s a very real chance he’s able to take Reyes down and submit him. So this is not a confident pick for Reyes. But I’m picking Reyes because he does have 2 submission wins in his career, including 1 in the UFC. So I think his wrestling and grappling is at least average. And Reyes will also have a reach advantage and is a long and lanky fighter who might be able to keep OSP on the outside. Most of all for me picking Reyes is that OSP can be knocked out. So I think Reyes catches OSP in the 1st round with a KO.
-Derrick Lewis: UPSET SPECIAL 2: I think Alexander Volkov and Marcin Tybura are very similar fighters, but with one big difference. Volkov’s grappling is a lot better. Both Volkov and Tybura fought Fabricio Werdum and Werdum submitted Tybura cause Werdum was able to grab a hold of Tybura and able to take him down. Volkov though was strong enough and skilled enough to keep the fight on the feet. So overall, Volkov is a better, more well rounded fighter. But striking wise, Volkov and Tybura are very similar. Therefore, I think this fight between Lewis and Volkov plays out pretty similar to Lewis vs Tybura. In that fight, Tybura was outstriking Lewis with more technical and patient striking. But Lewis was able to absorb the punches and had enough time to eventually catch Tybura with one of his trademark power shots and that ended the fight. That’s pretty much exactly how I see this fight going down. Volkov landing more punches early. But Lewis ending the fight in the 2nd round when he touches Volkov.
-Felice Herrig: Even though Herrig is now 34 years old, she’s actually gotten better and improved in the past couple years. Stylistically, her fight with Michelle Waterson is a great one for Herrig. Waterson’s best tool is her grappling and submission game. But Herrig’s wrestling will negate that to keep the fight standing where Herrig will have a decent striking advantage. Thus, I think Herrig cruises to a decision win.
-Sean O’Malley: Jose Quinonez isn’t getting this fight against O’Malley because he’s a big name or this is a fight the fans were clamoring for. Quinonez was picked because his fighting style is likely to make O’Malley look good. Yes, Qunionez is 4-1 in the UFC. He’s not an easy fight. Volume puncher. Quick. Technical. Moves in and out well. O’Malley is very similar, but his skills are on a higher tier. The UFC thinks they have a star in O’Malley and he’s going to look great out striking Quinonez for the decision win.
-Sergio Pettis: Is Jussier Formiga going to be able to take Pettis down? That’s really what this fight boils down to. But I don’t think he can. Pettis’ take down defense has really improved over his last few fights. Pettis took on grappler Brandon Moreno and Moreno couldn’t get anywhere close to being able to grab a hold of Pettis. I think Pettis is able to keep distance with Formiga. A kickboxing match breaks out. And Pettis out strikes Formiga for the win and stake as the next contender in line for a title shot after Demetrius Johnson.
-Vicente Luque: Jalin Turner is a very good, toolsy prospect. 23 years old. But this fight against Luque is way too much, too soon. To me, Luque looks like he’s going to become a title contender at 170 lbs. 6-2 UFC record with some of the most aggressive and vicious striking I’ve seen in any weight class. The only concerns I have with Luque is his take down defense and what he does with a patient, seasoned striker. But Turner presents neither challenge, so I’m confident Luque knocks Turner out in the 1st round.
-Aspen Ladd: With Ladd, we’re looking at a possible champion at 135 lbs. She’s that good and only 23 years old. She takes on 37 year old Tonya Evinger. And some might say, they’re both excellent grapplers and the fight will play out on the feet, but I think Ladd’s wrestling and grappling is on another tier and that Ladd actually takes Evinger down. A place that Evinger is not that familiar with, on her back. And Ladd proceeds to do what she’s done in her last few fights. Vicious ground and pound. And finishes Evinger by TKO in the 2nd.
-Yana Kunitskaya: Very similar fighters. Kunitskaya and Lina Lansberg. But there’s a big age gap. Lansberg now being 36 years old and Kunitskaya being in her prime at 28. Lansberg won her last fight against Gina Mazany but I feel like she’s slowing down a bit. This should be a close, stand up fight and I like Kunitskaya to outpoint Lansberg for the decision win.
-Alan Patrick: I’ve never really been that impressed with Scott Holtzman. His wrestling is plus, but all his other tools are average at best. Some, below average. Patrick is better than Holtzman everywhere. Better on the feet. And might even be able to take Holtzman down. But I expect this to be the usual Patrick fight. High pace, mixing striking with take downs. Patrick by easy decision.
-Nik Lentz: Gray Maynard is 39 years old. Has lost 5 of his last 7 fights. The only 2 wins he was able to pick up were because his 2 opponents had no take down defense. He takes on Lentz who continues to be one of the more under rated fighters around, with a 12-6 UFC record. Lentz is back at 155 lbs which is better for him now that he’s 34 years old. Lentz is going to keep this fight on the feet and I think knocks Maynard out in the 2nd round.
-Ryan LaFlare: Is it possible Tony Martin could be way better at 170 lbs? Yeah, for sure. But style wise, this matchup with LaFlare is a nightmare for him. LaFlare is 7-2 in the UFC and his wrestling is elite, probably top 3 in the division. And another factor is that LaFlare is a very big welterweight. Martin used to fight at 155 lbs, so he’s a much smaller welterweight. And that’s bad for Martin, who’s also a wrestler and submission fighter because I don’t think he has a chance to outwrestle LaFlare. I think LaFlare gets top control like he always does and cruises to a decision win.