Oezdemir vs Smith, Johnson vs Lobov, Cirkunov vs Cummins Fight Picks

-Volkan Oezdemir: This fight is pretty simple. Will come down to who has the better striking. And I’m convinced that’s Oezdemir. He’s knocked out a couple really good guys in Jimi Manuwa and Misha Cirkunov. I do think Anthony Smith is a top 5 light heavyweight, but that knockout loss against Thiago Santos is too fresh in my mind. Smith can be out struck and I think Oezdemir is going to be a level faster than Smith. In other words, beating Smith to the punch. And it’ll be quick. 1st round knockout for Oezdemir.

-Artem Lobov: UPSET SPECIAL 1: First off, I’ll be very surprised if Michael Johnson makes weight. 145 lbs has been a very hard cut for him in the past, and now he’s taking this fight on 2 weeks notice. More than likely Johnson doesn’t make weight and they still fight, but Johnson’s going to have no cardio. And yes, Johnson does have knockout power, but I’m not sure his power translates as well at featherweight and Lobov has proved to be durable. He’s only been knocked out once and that was 7 years ago. Johnson might be able to take Lobov down with his wrestling in the first round, but I think Johnson’s conditioning will be so bad, he won’t be able to do it in the second and third. Fight stays on the feet the second and third and I like Lobov to get the better of the striking, with a much deeper gas tank. Lobov by close split decision.

-Patrick Cummins: UPSET SPECIAL 2: Coin flip of a fight. My original pick was going to be Misha Cirkunov, but the odds are so lopsided, I’m going to have to go with Cummins. I mean, this fight should really be a pick em, but instead Cirknov is as high as a -500 favorite, which is just craziness. Yes, it’s very possible Cirkunov has the best tool in this fight which is his grappling. But I also believe Cummins’ wrestling could be the great equalizer. Fight will probably play out on the feet for awhile. Cummins has a very good chin and if he does get out struck, I think he’ll have the ability to take Cirkunov down and be able to avoid Cirkunov’s submission game while maintaining top control. Not a confident pick. I definitely could see the fight staying on the feet with Cirkunov out pointing Cummins in the striking. But I think either can win and with the odds being what they are, Cummins is the smart pick.

-Andre Soukhamthath: Jonathan Martinez isn’t really a prospect. He’s 32 years old. Toughest guy he beat had a 3-0 record at the time and Martinez won by split decision. Martinez is primarily a striker but has been improving his grappling lately. Problem for him is that Soukhamthath has the best tool in this fight and it’s his wrestling. Martinez won’t be able to stop the take downs and Soukhamthath will cruise to a decision win.

-Gian Villante: I doubt this fight lasts long. Ed Herman is returning to 205 lbs where maybe he does better, but he’s 38 years old and has lost his last 3 out of 4 fights and 2 of the 3 losses, hw was knocked out. Villante is a lower tier gate keeper with knockout power. Herman is a much smaller light heavyweight and this is going to be a 1st round knockout for Villante.

-Alex Garcia: Court McGee’s loss to Ben Saunders last year tells me all I need to know with where his career is at and it’s winding down in the UFC. Garcia is a decent lower tier gate keeper. I just don’t see any path to McGee winning. He’s mostly a wrestler. And Garcia has solid take down defense. I think fight plays out on the feet and Garcia knocks McGee out in the 1st round.

-Sean Strickland: This is a fight where I just see more ways for Strickland to win than Nordine Taleb. They’re both similar in that their best tool is striking, and of the less power, more volume type. But Strickland is literally 10 years younger than Taleb. I think that will give Stickland a speed and strength advantage on the feet. And even if Taleb somehow does out strike Strickland, Strickland would probably be able to take Taleb down and out grapple him. Because of this, we’re looking at a Strickland decision win.

-Nasrat Haqparast: Haqparast looked like a completely different fighter in his 2nd UFC fight compared to his debut. Completely different. 23 years old. He has some potential if he can round out his game, because as of now, he’s mostly a striker. He’ll get tested against Thibault Gouti in the grappling department. Gouti is well rounded, but has a much better ground game, so you can bet that Gouti will try and take Haqparast down. But I think Haqparast will be able to keep the fight on the feet and will outpoint Gouti for the decision win.

-Calvin Kattar: Not sure why this isn’t on the main card. Kattar is one of the better up and coming featherweights in the UFC and Chris Fishgold is a top prospect with a 17-1 pro record. But stylistically, this is a horrible fight for Fishgold. He’s mostly a grappler and submission specialist. And Kattar has plus wrestling. I’m confident Kattar is able to keep the fight on the feet and will have a gigantic advantage in the striking, which will lead to a 2nd round knockout.

-Sarah Moras: Moras is one of the more under rated fighters in the UFC. Her pro record is 5-3 but if you add in her amateur and TUF fights, she’s 10-4. And the 3 of the 4 losses were against UFC title contenders. She takes on Talita Bernardo, who was signed more for the projection of how good she could be, as opposed to what she actually did in fights. Bernardo has 6 wins and everyone of them came via tomato can. She’s a submission specialist, but needs to work on her take downs. And this is a nightmare match up for her as Moras’ wrestling is way, way better and I see Moras taking Bernardo down and doing enough on the ground to win by decision.

-Te Edwards: This is one of the more lopsided match ups the UFC makes. I really don’t know why Don Madge is getting a shot here. He lost 3 times to a fighter that’s now 15-11. Edwards has 6 wins and all of them have come via 1st round knockout. He’s going to get #7 here.

-Arjan Bhullar: Really surprised this is the 2nd fight on the card as I think Bhullar and Marcelo Golm are two of the better heavyweight prospects in the UFC. Horrible matchup for Golm though. If Golm had trouble with Timothy Johnson clinching and taking him down, he’s going to really struggle with Bhullar’s wrestling. I think Bhullar is going to play it pretty safe here, coming off a submission loss. Golm poses no threat on the ground. Bhullar goes for take downs early and often to cruise to a decision win.

-Stevie Ray: Close fight. I like Jessin Ayari’s potential. Ayari didn’t get blown out in his last fight against contender Darren Till. Ayari is mostly a grappler. 26 years old. Still developing. But most of his 16 wins have come against tomato cans. And Ayari’s one win in the UFC was a split decision win over journeyman Jim Wallhead. It’s possible Ayari reaches his potential, but currently I like Ray to bounce back from two losses in a row. But the two loses came against solid mid tier gate keepers in Paul Felder and Kajan Johnson. Ray is well rounded. I think he’s able to keep the fight on the feet, where he’ll have a big striking advantage. Such a big advantage that I see Ray knocking Ayari out in the 2nd round.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *