
-Rose Namajunas: Jessica Andrade is deserving of her 2nd shot at the 115 lb title, but Namajunas is a horrible matchup for her. I see 2 different ways Namajunas can win. I grade Namajunas as having plus plus grappling and even though Andrade has above average grappling in her own right, Namajunas is the better grappler and I could see Namajunas being able to take Andrade down and submitting her. But the most likely way this fight plays out is on the feet. Namajunas has to be confident in the MMA math right now in that she out struck Joanna Jedrzejczyk twice and Jedrzejczyk out struck Andrade. Namajunas will have the better striking and better cardio to outlast Andrade and win by decision.
-Jared Cannonier: Even though Anderson Silva looked decent in his last fight against Israel Adesanya, let’s not forget that Silva has lost 5 of his last 6 fights. He’s 44 years old. He still has plus striking, but his knockout power is gone. Cannonier looked extremely impressive in his middleweight debut by knocking out David Branch. I think Cannonier’s power is real and he knocks out Silva in the 1st round.
-Alexander Volkanovski: UPSET SPECIAL 1: There are 2 main thoughts I have on this fight. The first is that only 3 men have ever beaten Jose Aldo. Luciano Azevedo beat Aldo on the regional scene back in 2005. Since then, between the WEC and UFC, only Conor McGregor and Max Holloway have wins over Aldo. Everybody else has been turned away, including recent attempts by Jeremy Stephens and Renato Moicano. Only special fighters have been able to beat Aldo. And the second main thought I have is that Volkanovski is a special fighter. 30 years old. 6-0 in the UFC. 19-1 overall. Has plus striking and plus take down defense. It’s going to be Aldo’s striking vs Volkanovski’s striking and the difference is going to be the pace Volkanovski puts on Aldo. Aldo’s cardio always breaks down in the 3rd round and I think that’s where Volkanovski knocks him out.
-Laureano Staropoli: I’m making this pick on projection. Because Staropoli doesn’t have much of a track record. 1-0 in the UFC. 8-1 pro record. Striker. Out struck Hector Aldana in his UFC debut, which isn’t saying much. Outside the UFC, he only beat poor competition. I’m tempted to say Alves is his biggest test, but then again, maybe he isn’t. Alves is well into the twilight of his career. The judges gave Alves a win over Max Griffin last time out, but I thought Griffin won the fight. Either way, Alves has lost 4 of his last 6 fights. Staropoli is 26 years old and I’m banking on him developing his striking enough to out point Alves and take the decision win.
-Carlos Diego Ferreira: Biggest fight of Ferreira’s career. He’s at a cross roads. 34 years old. 6-2 in the UFC. Last loss to Dustin Poirier back in 2015. Francisco Trinaldo is a quality mid tier gate keeper and a win over him will give Ferreira access to the top tier in the division. Ferreira is known for his plus grappling and plus submissions, but it’s been his improvements in his striking the past couple years that show he has contender potential. Trinaldo had a couple chances of his own to be in bigger fights and fell short losing to Kevin Lee and James Vick. But he still has a 13-5 UFC record. Has plus wrestling and average striking. I’m picking Ferreira based on him showing he has plus take down defense. He displayed it in his wins over top wrestlers such as Rustam Khabilov and Oliver Aubin-Mercier. If they couldn’t take Ferreira down, Trinaldo won’t either. So it’ll be a stand up fight and Ferreira will out strike Trinaldo to win by decision.
-Antonio Rogerio Nogueira: UPSET SPECIAL 2: It looks like Ryan Spann has a bright future ahead. He’s only 27 years old, which is young for a light heavyweight. His pro record is 15-5. He’s got 10 submission wins and 3 knockouts. His career has really taken a step forward lately, since he’s improved his hands. He’s got plus grappling and can now pair it with above average striking. But he’s going to have problems with Lil’ Nog. Nogueira doesn’t fight that often. He fights about once a year on average. But when he does fight, he’s very effective. Nogueira’s got plus plus submissions. Plus grappling. Plus striking. Very well rounded. But his lack of chin when being out struck has prevented him from getting a title shot. Plus he’s 42 years old now. Spann won’t be able to take Lil’ Nog down. And even though Spann’s striking is better, it’s nowhere near the level of Nogueira’s. Because of that, I’m picking a 1st round knockout for Nogueira.
-Thiago Moises: Kurt Holobaugh is the very rare fighter who’s gone 0-4 in the UFC and gets a 5th fight. Holobaugh has a 17-6 pro record. He’s got above average grappling and average striking. He takes on Moises who’s 1-1 in the UFC so far. 24 years old. He’s pretty well rounded. His grappling is above average right now, but I expect it to develop into a plus tool. He’s also been really improving his striking over the past couple years and I’d grade it as a slightly above average skill. Being that Moises has been able to beat some pretty decent wrestlers, I don’t see Holobaugh being able to take Moises down. And on the fett, I expect Moises to out strike Holobaugh to win via decision.
-Irene Aldana: Both are really similar. Both strikers. Bathe Correira started her UFC career on a hot streak. Went 3-0. Then got knocked out by Ronda Rousey. Since then, Correira has only 1 win in her last 5 fights. And it could be tempting to say that Correira has just never been the same since that knockout against Rousey. But the reality is that Correira’s first 3 wins in the UFC we’re really that great. She beat Julie Kedzie, Jessamyn Duke and Shayna Baszler. Big deal. Now Correira is 35 years old and her chin isn’t what it used to be. 2 of her last 3 losses have been her getting knocked out. She’s a volume puncher. Wins on out pointing her opponents. And that’s going to be a problem because Aldana has more power. Technical striking, they’re about equal, but Aldana’s power will lead to a 2nd round knockout.
-Clay Guida: What’s happening to BJ Penn these days is sad. Penn has lost 6 in a row and he only has 1 win in his last 10 fights. Meanwhile Guida has shown he can still be a useful lower tier gate keeper. He’s won 2 of his last 3 fights. I don’t think Penn has anything left and I think Guida is going to blitz Penn and knock him out in the 1st round.
-Luana Carolina: I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think Priscila Cachoeira’s career is ever going to be the same after one of the worst beat downs in UFC history at the hands of now champion Valentina Shevchenko. She was undefeated, 8-0. 30 years old now. Tried to bounce back against Molly McCann, but got out struck. Carolina is a pretty similar fighter to Cachoiera and McCann. She’s a striker mainly. 25 years old. And is coming in with confidence after beating a very good prospect on the Contenders Series who had a 7-0 pro record. I think confidence will be the difference in this fight and Carolina will out point Cachoeira on the feet to get the decision win.
-Warlley Alves: I’m making this pick more on projection. Both these guys are successful. Alves comes in with a 6-3 UFC record. Sergio Moraes is 8-3-1 in the UFC. But Moraes is 36 years old and Alves is 28 years old. Both have plus grappling. Pathway to beating Alves has been to have the wrestling to take him down and put him on his back or knock him out. For Moraes, you have to keep the fight on the feet and out strike him. So both are really similar. And I think Moraes actually has at least a couple years left of being a serviceable mid tier gate keeper. But I’m going with Alves because at 28 years old, I think he’s still getting better. I think this fight turns into a kick boxing match and that Alves has the better hands to win by decision.
-Raoni Barcelos: Carlos Huachin has a bright future, he’s 22 years old. 10-3 pro record, although 2 of his 3 losses came when he was 16 years old, the other came when he was 18 years old. Has above average striking. It’s tempting to say he’s green because of his age and how one dimensional he is, but he does have 13 pro fights. He’s also fought a couple solid prospects, but failed to win in both. And it’s going to be almost impossible for Huachin, on less than 2 weeks notice, to outstrike a potential contender in Barcelos. 32 years old. 2-0 UFC record. 13-1 pro record. Plus striking, above average power. Huachin will get knocked out in the 1st round.
-Talita Bernardo: Melissa Gatto was scheduled to take on Bernardo but she’s out due to infection. In steps Viviane Araujo. 32 years old. 6-1 pro record. Has above average grappling. Has only beaten cans. And on top of Araujo taking the fight on a few days notice, Bernardo is a horrible matchup for her. Because Bernardo has better grappling. It’s plus. It was demonstrated when she out grappled a decent lower tier gate keeper in Sarah Moras. Grappling is the only real skill Araujo has right now and she’s going to have no path to winning. I’ll go with Bernardo with a 1st round submission.